September 5, 2017

RotoBaller superheroes JB Branson, Nick Mariano, Max Petrie and Bill Dubiel bring you their boldest predictions for the 2017 NFL season.

Oh hot damn, RotoBaller's big dawgs are back for football season. You know you never get sick of bold predictions and hot taeks, and our taeks are the hottest around. Unplug your smoke detectors--here comes the fire.

Our "Fantastic Four" is comprised of JB Branson (@RowdyRotoJB), Nick Mariano (@NMariano53), Max Petrie (@Max_Petrie) and Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs).

The predictions range from the wildly absurd to the somewhat realistic, but you can bet they're all going to be bolder than a good taco seasoning. Tweet us with your thoughts!

JB's Predictions

As you all can probably assume, I am the Jessica Alba-Invisible Woman of the group. That's why we put my boldness on top, because it's really the only thing you came here to see. I am also the Invisible Woman because if any of these hot taeks go south during the season, this entire blurb will disappear faster than the Bengals in the playoffs.

Pierre Garcon finishes the season as a Top 15 WR in PPR Formats

In 2013, Garcon played his first full season in Kyle Shanahan's offense with the Redskins. He finished that year with a career high 113 Receptions and 1,346 Yards. Fast forward to 2017 and the two are reunited out in the Bay, and there is literally zero competition for target share. Marquise Goodwin is a fantastic vertical threat but come on! Now Vance McDonald and Jeremy Kerley are gone, too? Brian Hoyer will lock on to Garcon with all his might from the get-go, and Kyle Shanahan is capable of making sure his #1 WR doesn't get negated by the defense. Remember the 2015 campaign DeAndre Hopkins had himself with Brian Hoyer targeting him a hundred times a game? Okay, not really 100, but he did get 22 in one game and 192 on the season. Bottom line: Kyle Shanahan + Brian Hoyer + terrible WR depth = all the Garcon shares I can handle.

Bilal Powell finishes the season as a Top 10 RB in PPR Formats

Over the last four weeks of the 2016 season, Bilal Powell averaged 20.7 FPPG in PPR formats. Two of those games included Matt Forte, and two of those games featured Bryce Petty under center. So whether or not Forte is traded, and even if Josh McCown is hot garbage, Powell is going to eat. He will be heavily utilized, in both the run and pass game. In the three starts McCown had for the Browns last year, Duke Johnson averaged 4.3 Rec and 52.3 Rec Yds. So you can see that McCown is no stranger to dumping down to his back. Sure the rushing efficiency may not be overly sexy, but the garbage time receiving stats will thrust Powell into the top 10 RB territory in PPR leagues. As of right now, he is being drafted as RB22.

No rookie finishes inside the top 10 RB in any format

I can literally hear the sound of all your universes shattering right now. The rookie RB has been the trend of the draft season this year and Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, and now Kareem Hunt have been the talk of the industry. I mean Ezekiel Elliott did it, why can't every other rookie do it, am I right?     1) The Vikings O-Line is absolutely atrocious, as they ranked 32nd in rushing yards last year and only scored nine TD on the ground. Oh and don't forget they went out and paid Latavius Murray who will see more of those nine TD than Cook. 2) The Panthers have not supported pass catching backs since 2011, when Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams totaled over 500 Rec Yds. Last year, three CAR RB combined for 10% of targets. In 2015...also 10%. It is going to take some time for that to change, and don't even consider the thought of McCaffrey getting goal line carries. 3) I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Leonard Fournette plays in less than half of the Jaguars games this year. Rushing him back from this foot injury could be costly. You saw the difference in his level of play while dealing with his chronic ankle injury in 2016 at LSU. Oh and don't forget the Jaguars offense is still going to be pretty terrible. 4) Lastly, Kareem Hunt. The guy was going to be Spencer Ware's backup, meaning all of his greatness at the heralded juggernaut Toledo University wasn't enough to get him the starting spot. I understand that Andy Reid has a history of producing great fantasy RB, but its not the Patriots system where you can plug any average-joe off the street in there and gain instant results. I believe Charcandrick West, who has experience in the offense and totaled 850 yards and five TD in 2015, will take away more snaps from Hunt this season than what everyone is expecting.

John "Smokey" Brown returns to 2015 form, records over 1,000 Rec Yds and 8 TDs

Due to difficulty recovering from injuries because of the sickle-cell trait, Brown missed most of 2016. But if you ponder on back to 2015, you'll remember Smokey hauled in seven TD along with over 1,000 yards as he proved to be just too fast for defenses to cover when healthy. He claimed to be at "90 percent" after he went out and lit up the Falcons for two touchdowns last week, so Smokey is plenty healthy enough to duplicate those 2015 numbers again this season. It also doesn't hurt that Michael Floyd is no longer posing a threat to his deep-zone air space. The 207 FP (PPR) he earned in 2015 would have ranked inside the top 25 WR last year. The injury possibility is a bit Smokey, but when he remains healthy this season- the sky will be the limit in that Bruce Arians offense.

Nick Mariano's Predictions

I'm probably closest to "Thing" with my grizzly demeanor and a protective shell covering up my gentler human side. With the baseball marathon hitting its final month, what better time than to take on the blitzing sprint of football? Be sure that you've stretched enough to keep up with me throughout the wind-sprints drill of boldness.

Randall Cobb Finishes as WR15, Regains Star Status.

Cobb’s 2015 and 2016 seasons were marred by injuries (and ’15 saw him utilized in odd ways to compensate for Jordy Nelson’s absence), which has led to many forgetting his potential. The emergence of Davante Adams is wonderful and all, but Cobb is just 27 and I doubt Adams commands 12 TDs again this season.

While Green Bay has had a full offseason to figure out how to get their running game going without a “pure” runner at the position, they are still a pass-first team. Zero question about that. Don’t marry yourself to Cobb’s 91-1,287-12 line from 2014, but something like 80-1,100-10 and a spot in the top-15 is well within reason if health holds. I say it does.

A.J. Green Finishes as WR2 Behind Antonio Brown.

Don’t call it a comeback for Green, who will eclipse his wild 98-1,426-11 campaign from 2013 and finish as fantasy’s No. 2 wideout. This goes in the face of a few other hopeful narratives, namely that Joe Mixon takes over the planet. This also seemingly conflicts with those hoping for a healthy season out of Tyler Eifert, but I think they can all co-exist as the Bengals finally become King of the Jungle.

Green is falling around the WR5 mark across draft boards, but he’s tremendous value in the latter half of first rounds. Andy Dalton has finished inside the top-6 on the “long pass” leaderboard in each of his last four seasons and isn’t afraid to chuck it deep. As long as Green’s legs stay under him, this is his year to nudge into that top WR conversation in earnest.

Dak Prescott Finishes as QB5.

This has plenty of variables to it thanks to the Ezekiel Elliott drama, but this is about piecing together some buzz as well as reasonably projecting some growth for Prescott in his second year. On the one hand, everyone says how Dallas’ stellar offensive line can make any running back good. While Elliott is a cut above, he’s not dead and will still be able to contribute to some degree in 2017. Secondly, folks can’t be all hyped on Dez Bryant without giving Prescott some appreciation. Jason Witten and Cole Beasley remain solid safety valves.

I’m willing to grant that the guy is going to throw more than four picks, but his rushing abilities (57 rushes for 282 yards and six touchdowns) haven’t gone anywhere and may ramp up with additional study. Also, his 7.86 ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards per pass attempt) was good for third in the NFL, behind only Matt Ryan and Tom Brady with Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers behind him. That’s good company, let alone as a rookie. I’m impressed.

Austin Hooper Finishes as TE8.

Hooper showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie season, catching 19 of his 27 targets (70.4 percent) for 271 yards (14.26 average) and three touchdowns. Folks may have hoped for more given the ridiculous offensive climate that was Atlanta last season, but that’s just laying the groundwork for 2017. Plus, Jacob Tamme played the lion’s share of TE snaps between Weeks 1-7 before getting hurt, which is when Hooper saw his weekly snap count go from the 10-20 range to the 35-45 range.

Hooper’s strong hands could make him a serious contributor in ’17 while Levine Toilolo handles the blocking role, with Matt Ryan himself speaking highly of Mr. Hooper. He had that nice 19-yard touchdown in Super Bowl LI as well. Many are sweating the loss of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan for Atlanta’s outlook, but Steve Sarkisian was also known for a no-huddle, up-tempo look at USC and shouldn’t disrupt things too much. It’s tough to see the team suddenly shift to TE-centric plays, but I think there’s enough of a chance here that Atlanta realizes they have something special in Hooper and can get him roughly 55-60 receptions. Given his skill set and how he’s already shown to stretch the field with high averages, that could be enough for 750 yards and 7-8 TDs -- which is roughly what fueled Martellus Bennett to being the TE8 last season.

Mad Max's Predictions

It shouldn't take much train of thought to figure where my name comes from -- I make terrible life decisions and drive these guys nuts with my failure to meet deadlines. But more importantly, I am the one in the group who is not afraid to make some bold picks. How bold? How about...

Matt Breida is a top-25 PPR Running Back.

Who!? Unless you follow preseason extensively or root for Georgia Southern (Go Eagles), you've only heard Breida's name briefly, and the conversation wasn't centered around when you draft him. In fact, he's only been drafted in 3% of Yahoo leagues. So why am I so high on Matt Breida? 1) Carlos Hyde has yet to put together a dominant season at running back for San Francisco. 2) Hyde doesn't fit the scheme Kyle Shannahan brings over from Atlanta (pass-catching backs are required). 3) Matt Breida is a freak of nature. Breida averaged over 8.0 yards per carry his first two years at Georgia Southern until a disappointing senior year. Breida wasn't invited to the NFL Combine but would have had the best vertical jump and second 40-yard time (4.38). The undrafted back has already beat out third-round pick Joe Williams and veteran Tim Hightower for the No. 2 role. Once Hyde disappoints, look for Breida to make his mark. Invest in the last round and thank me later.

Julio Jones is not worth a top-six pick, but there is nothing you can do nothing about it.

Let me preface this -- I LOVE Julio Jones. He is a freak of nature. He may be the best athlete at his position. But he is way too inconsistent for weekly formats to be a shoe-in top-six pick. Last year Julio had 83/1400/6, a solid campaign that leaves you asking for more from a first round pick. If you remove the 300-yard performance versus Carolina, that's 1,100 yards, more in line with a WR2/3. He did miss two games, but he has also missed games the past three years. He eclipsed 100 yards seven times last year, mixing in duds of 16, 29 (2x), and 35 yard games. In a roto format, Julio is elite. The problem -- the majority of fantasy players don't play roto fantasy football, they play H2H weekly. I have no problem with passing on Julio Jones for Mike Evans or Jordy Nelson, but when the choice is Julio or Dez Bryant, you are stuck and can do nothing about it.  Proceed with caution.

Jamaal Charles is PPR fantasy-relevant in 2017.

The Chiefs and Andy Reid are notorious for employing a workhouse back and, for all intensive purposes, running them into the ground. That is what we have seen with Jamaal Charles, a running back who has averaged over 5.0 yards per carry (only running back in NFL history) tore his ACL twice in Kansas City and the road to recovery has led him to Denver. Charles did enough in his audition to land a spot on the 53-man roster, rushing four times for 27 yards and two catches for 15 yards in Week 3 of the preseason versus Green Bay. His competition in Denver is C.J. Anderson, who has never been able to put together a full campaign. I fully expect for Charles to eat into Anderson's workload, and be given a chance to see 25-30 touches should Anderson miss any time. Charles is a great late-round pick for those looking to hit a lotto ticket.

Chris Hogan is a top 20 WR.

Some of the best advice you will ever receive is, "When in doubt, draft a Patriot." It never hurts to get a share of a top-2 offense, but Chris Hogan is criminally undervalued in drafts. Now that Julian Edelman (ACL) is out for the season, there are 160 targets that need to be accounted for. The current receiver corps include Brandin Cooks, Malcolm Mitchell, and Philip Dorsett. Cooks is a deep-ball threat and the Patriots would be ill-advised to try and re-invent him. Neither Mitchell or Dorsett has flashed the chemistry Hogan has with Tom Brady, including this preseason. In Hogan's only preseason appearance he caught four balls for 70 yards and two touchdowns. I am not buying Cooks and Rob Gronkowski being the only fantasy-relevant receivers for a top-flight offense. Grab Hogan in the 8th round of your draft and thank Mad Max later.

Bill Dubs Predictions

Who are the five greatest fantasy analysts of all time? Think about it...Roto Dubs, Roto Dubs...Roto Dubs Roto Dubs and Roto Dubs. Because I SPIT hot fiyah.

Just like the Human Torch.

Tyreek Hill is a Top-10 Wide Receiver.

THE FREAK. TYREEK THE FREAK. Hill was a spark plug for the Chiefs last year, and did a ton of damage on special teams. He has speed to burn, and sweet Jeebus it is fun watching him bust a return TD. His upside comes in the change of role--he is giving up a bulk of his kick-returning duties to focus on being the team's new WR1.

He should still return punts, but he is going to be on the field for much more than just gadget plays. Think Antonio Brown-lite...sprinting all over the field and wreaking havoc on broken plays especially. Jeremy Maclin had an injury-plagued and ineffective 2016, but when he was at full strength in 2015 he posted an 87-1088-8 line as the primary weapon for Alex Smith. Tyreek Hill is capable of that much and more given how much more explosive he is. THE FREAK. TYREEK THE FREAK.

The Top Four Tight Ends are Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen and...Zach Ertz.

Ertz has been quietly consistent for each of the last two years, gathering at least 75 catches and 800 yards in each season. However, he has been unlucky in the touchdown department--he had just six total touchdowns in those two seasons. I'm here to declare that this is the season Ertz breaks out.

'Memba Jordan Matthews? He's no longer with the team, which means there are a ton of targets over the middle that will be up for grabs. Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith are now out wide, and should draw a ton of attention from opposing secondaries not wanting to get beat over the top. Ertz will dominate inside as Carson Wentz's safety blanket and I for one am excited as heck about it. 80 catches, 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns is well within the realm of possibility for 2017.

Carlos Hyde Will Be a Top-Five Running Back.

The boldness here is betting on Carlos Hyde actually staying healthy enough to be a top-five running back. Let's pretend he will and then do some math (I know, seatbelts on)...

When on the field last year, Hyde averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Let's say he averages 16 carries per game at that rate--1,178 yards. Now, he's likely going to lose some points that he had in the receiving game last year because...oh no wait, there are NO OTHER RUNNING BACKS to take those snaps. Matt Breida is on the roster so that there is technically another RB should Hyde get injured. Hyde averaged 6.0 yards per reception last year, and if he's able to snag 40 balls this year that's another 240 yards. Add in the points from the 10-12 all-purpose touchdowns he's going to have, and Hyde could be one of the best fantasy backs in the league. Oh yeah, he's also playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense, so all of these numbers are perfectly realistic.

Now someone slap some bubble-wrap on the man and put him in the Vader Bacta Tank until Week 1.

Russell Wilson Finishes the Year as the QB1.

I'm sayin' it. The Love Muscle is going to be better than Aaron Rodgers, better than Tom Brady, better than Drew Brees. His 2016 was marred by injury, as he played a majority of the season at less than 100%. He set a career-low in rushing yards, and without the ability to run as much Wilson was able to set a career high in passing (4,219 yards). Now fully healthy, Wilson will be able to get back to damaging defenses on the ground, and that is what sets him apart from his top-five contemporaries.

Do I have any reason to believe that Rodgers, Brees and Brady will have down years? I do not. I've got Wilson projected for 800 yards rushing, 4,000 passing and 40 total touchdowns. How did I come up with these numbers? Never you mind, sweet child. Just sit back and enjoy the fiyah.