RADIO
Kevin Luchansky highlights the top FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks for 5/9/18, and a couple of sleepers to consider while building daily rosters.
Good morning, Rotoballers. Quite the night of baseball we had last night with a no-hitter from the Big Maple, a pitching gem at Coors Field and an offensive explosion from the Royals that sent Dylan Bundy to the showers in the matter of minutes. Let's hope today is just as wild. There are two slates as usual for Wednesday - an early afternoon four-gamer and the Main slate (7pm) with seven games scheduled.
Let's get ready for the morning slate with run projections and moneylines from our friends out in Las Vegas. As of about three hours before first pitch today, the Rangers own the highest run projection at 5.3, followed by at 4.9 and a trio of teams - Mets, Reds and Indians - all at 4.8. Not much separation there, seeing as there are only eight teams in action and the bottom of the barrel has just one team with a projection below four - the Brewers at 3.8. As for moneyline favorites, we don't have much disparity here either. Just two teams - the Indians and Rangers - are -140 favorites or higher.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/9/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me on Twitter @kpLuch.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Carlos Carrasco - SP, at MIL ($9,500) - Early
The pitching options in this Early slate certainly leave something to be desired. Carrasco is a talented arm, but he has run into some trouble lately. But on a slate like this where the top end options are thinner than thin, we need to trust some Vegas data and go with the option (in Cash games) that seems to have the least red flags. Carrasco is just that today, as he brings the highest K/9 mark (10.9), the Indians are the second highest favorites on the moneyline, has the lowest projected opponent run total (3.8), and gets a National League park shift that should equate to a fairly easy out at the end of the Brewers order. Despite his less two outings being a little bumpy, Carrasco has provided plus value on the year and this looks to be a spot where he can rack up some strikeouts. This Milwaukee team has struck out at a 25.8% clip against right-handed pitching this season.
Also Consider for Early: Bartolo Colon - SP, vs DET ($6,400) - GPP only
Gio Gonzalez - SP, at SDP ($9,000) - Main
This is a pretty prime pitching spot for Gio, who is coming off of two gem starts in which he crushed his price implied value in each. Tonight, he and the Nats head to one of (if not the) most glorious and spacious pitchers parks, in San Diego. The Padres currently have the lowest implied run total at just 3.3 runs (had been at 3.5 until Vegas action pushed it down) and their projected lineup owns a very high 28.7% K rate against southpaws this season. Both of those bode well for run prevention and strikeout upside. Over his last two starts, Gonzalez has been excellent at both limiting hard contact (22%) and fly ball rate (25%).
Also Consider for Main: Patrick Corbin - SP, at LAD ($10,000); Julio Teheran - SP, at TBR ($7,400)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Joey Votto - 1B, vs NYM ($4,100) - Early
Votto has one of the better matchups of the early slate as he faces a pitcher that is really struggling (4.8 SIERA in 2017-18) and we all know how incredible of a hitter Votto is against fastball throwing right-handers. Over the course of the past 12 months, Votto owns a .442 wOBA and a .224 ISO to go with an incredibly low strikeout rate.
Scooter Gennett - 2B, vs NYM ($3,100) - Early
Scooter treated us with a blast last night and the odds are in his favor to provide some more damage this afternoon against Zack Wheeler. Wheeler struggles with hitters from both sides, but allows more pop to lefties - making Gennett and teammates like Votto strong options. Gennett provides really nice splits - particularly for this position - owning a .378 wOBA and a .236 ISO.
Adrian Beltre - 3B, vs DET ($2,900) - Early
Beltre is a super value for this early slate, considering the matchup, upside he brings and low price relative to his positional peers. He also happens to get one of the easier pitchers to pick on and looked healthy last night in his return from a short DL stint. His .440 wOBA split against southpaws gives him a nice floor here, as does his position high in the order for a team with the highest projected run total.
Francisco Lindor - SS, at MIL ($4,600) - Early
The switch-hitting Lindor gets a strong offensive park upgrade this afternoon and has excellent lineup order value being the leadoff hitter for a team that is a favorite and on the road. The price is a little steep, but it's essentially the same figure we've seen him priced at for the past three days and he has beaten his price implied value in eight of his last 10 games. He also brings a .208 ISO split to the table.
Josh Donaldson - 3B, vs SEA ($4,000) - Main
Donaldson back in the two-slot of the Jays' order and facing a lefty? I wish I could roster him in the third base and utility spot. Donaldson's splits are elite againt southpaws for his career and the past 12 months have been no different, as he's posted a wOBA over .400 and an ISO over .300. Opposing pitcher Wade LeBlance is outmatched here, and he has allowed a 35% hard hit rate since the start of 2017.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Starling Marte - OF, at CWS ($3,800) - Early
The speedster Marte keeps providing us plus value and I am going back to the well today in what is a relatively good matchup for this early slate. He's in an opportune spot as the leadoff man for the team who now has the second highest (tied) run total of the afternoon matinees and his .345 wOBA provides a nice floor.
Michael Conforto - OF, at CIN ($3,500) - Early
No better way to get back into his groove than face a subpar right-handed pitcher in a great park for hitters. Conforto brings a plus wOBA and plus ISO to this matchup (.396 and .245, respetively) and has good lineup context as well.
Andrew McCutchen - OF, at PHI ($3,600) - Main
McCutchen continues to be criminally under-owned despite his imrpoved play of late. That may change a little tonight as we are dealing with just a seven game slate, but the matchup is good and the park upgrade can't be understated. He owns a .351 wOBA split over the past year against right-handed pitching and perhaps most importantly, he's been bopping the ball and making great contact. In the past 15 days, he owns a 44% hard hit rate and his fly ball rate is in the same range.
Aaron Altherr - OF, vs SFG ($2,400) - Main
Opposing pitcher Chris Stratton's stuff has improved a little, but I still think he is a pitcher we can pick on in certain spots - today being one of them. Stratton is moving to a dangerous park for pitchers and he catches a hot Altherr. Altherr is a super bargain at this price range and he boasts .215 ISO (last 12 months) and a 44% hard hit rate in his last 12 games.
