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We've got what is probably going to be the juiciest slate of the playoffs today with four games on the Main slate - which begins at 2:05 Eastern. The NLDS series are rolling along with the home team (Milwaukee, Los Angeles) each taking game one, and both ALDS series set to start today in Houston and Boston.
Let's say what the oddsmakers in Vegas have for us this morning, and if there has been any sharp line movement. The Dodgers are the biggest favorite on the moneyline, with a pretty damn large -225 line, followed by the Red Sox (-178), Brewers (-156) and Astros (-147). No real significant movement from any of the opening lines up to this point to report, except for a little in Houston's favor. As for implied run totals, the Brewers top that list at 4.5, followed by Boston (4.4) and Los Angeles (4.3). The only real movement there to report is that Boston opened up at 4.7 and action on the under has dropped that down .3 - still, it's one of the top run projections on a slate where we'll need every edge.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 10/5/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
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FanDuel DFS Pitcher
Justin Verlander - SP, vs CLE ($11,800)
Playoff Verlander is something special to behold, and I have this not-too-far fetched belief that we'll see him tonight in Houston. Yes, he faces a dangerous lineup - but which pitcher isn't tonight? I think Kershaw may have a slightly better lineup to matchup against, but his recent outings make me nervous about spending that much money on a pitcher who may only throw 5-6 innings. For Verlander, a complete game is never out of the question, he has a high points floor thanks to his stamina, and while Cleveland doesn't strike out a ton against right-handed pitchers, Verlander has elite stuff. He finished the year with a really strong 0.9 WHIP and an incredible 12.1 K/9 mark. Helping me to make this call is the fact that Cleveland has the second lowest implied run total (just 3.0) and we've seen the moneyline move slightly in favor of Houston this morning. Verlander can be deployed in cash games or tournaments.
Chris Sale - SP, vs NYY ($10,800)
Sale is the risk-vs-reward play in tournaments for me this evening. I wouldn't call it the biggest risk from a matchup perspective (he's handled the Yankees well this year) or a Vegas lens (Red Sox are second biggest moneyline favorites of the night). That said, this Yankees squad packs a lot of punch and they're hitting the ball well. And the biggest concern is Sale's shoulder injury and potential arm fatigue - in his handful of September outings, his velocity was down across the board - but perhaps he was holding back a bit? For me, he still projects to have the most strikeouts tonight and if he's got his stuff going, he could also provide the best return on investment. Gambling with him and his 13.5 K/9 against a strikeout friendly team is worth the upside and leverage in tournaments.
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Tyler Flowers - C, at LAD ($2,200)
How about a money-saving contrarian pick for anyone playing in tournaments? Flowers is nearly the minimum price and he also happens to be a southpaw specialist. In 2018, he posted a massive .469 wOBA split and showed a lot of pop, too (.262 ISO).
Max Muncy - 1B, vs ATL ($3,800)
This kid has been on fire and he is seriously underpriced tonight when you consider lineup context, his floor and his upside. Muncy has smashed his price implied value in four straight games, only to see his price tag increase ever so slightly. In his last 10 starts, he has a monstrous 61% hard hit rate and an average batted ball distance of 245 feet. His .418 wOBA split creates a nice high floor and the .332 ISO is very impressive.
Nolan Arenado - 3B, at MIL ($4,500)
I know there's been a lot of talk this week about Arenado's numbers against right-handers in games not played in Coors Field, but hear me out. He still boasts a .245 ISO against righties in 2018, and Milwaukee is a pretty fine hitter's park. The biggest appeal for me, though, is that he and his teammates are facing Chacin on very short rest and the ownership shouldn't be too high in tournaments.
Hernan Perez - SS, vs COL ($2,300)
Yes, Perez has been a little cold to close out September and into early October, but we can't dismiss his positive season long splits (.331 wOBA, .202 ISO) and the fact that he has great lineup context today. The price is also ultra-appealing, as it allows us to grab a top arm and litter the lineup with some higher priced bats as well.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Mookie Betts - OF, vs NYY ($4,700)
Mookie projects as my top outfield option of the night. He boasts incredibly strong splits against lefties this year with his .481 wOBA and .341 ISO putting him into elite company. He also has strong lineup context and a 55% hard hit rate and 35% line drive rate over the last week of games to close out the regular season.
Charlie Blackmon - OF, at MIL ($3,800)
Going back to the Rockies lineup here, but this time with their most talented left-handed hitter. Opposing starter Chacin has allowed a wOBA to lefties more than 100 points higher than his allowance to righties, and the slugging percentae allowed is more than 150 points higher. Of course, Blackmon has been strong against righties this year with a .375 wOBA to his credit and hitting out of the leadoff spot here adds value.
