July 4, 2021

Josh Friedman evaluates ADP for ESPN fantasy football leagues to find overvalued and undervalued draft targets at QB, RB, WR, and TE.

The surest path to the prizes in fantasy football this year is landing one of the five elite quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, or Dak Prescott. They’ll provide a sizable week-to-week scoring advantage, often with their legs as well as with their arms that warrant the draft cost and then some.

In PPR formats such as the ESPN default, gamers can secure a further edge by building a roster of high-volume pass catchers at running back as well as receiver and tight end. That’s reflected in the average draft position on the platform, but not to the degree it should be.

Fantasy managers can have it all -- a top QB and solid producers across the lineup -- by carefully maneuvering the draft board, dodging the overpriced names, and devoting their capital instead to bargains at each position. Here is a look at the overvalued and undervalued names to note.

Overvalued Players

Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)

The 37-year-old future Hall of Famer threw 48 touchdowns in 2020, earning his third MVP award and more to the point, propelling fantasy teams to the promised land. Who cares if he clicks with the Packers' front office as long as he keeps connecting with Davante Adams. The problem is that statistical regression may strike harder than most expect.

Rodgers completed 70.7% of his passes in 2020, a huge jump from prior years. His touchdown rate surged to a career-best 9.1%. His sack, pressure, and hurry rates plunged. In essence, everything went right. Assuming he sticks with Green Bay and stays healthy, Rodgers will be a solid starter but may return little or no profit from his sixth-round ADP. There’s also the risk of his rift with management leading to a holdout or retirement.

If you haven’t paid up for the position, consider skipping him -- and for that matter another all-time great, seventh-rounder Tom Brady -- to grab one of the better risk-reward tradeoffs going right after them: Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, or Matthew Stafford.

Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)

The 25-year-old boasts eye-popping run-efficiency metrics, gets a favorable schedule, and plays for a team that upgraded its offensive line. He might be the best pure runner in football. Going at the end of the first round in 12-team leagues, however, this Derrick Henry-lite offers mostly downside. Chubb is little used as a pass-catcher so he’ll need to reel off touchdowns and remain healthy to justify his price.

His touchdowns per carry doubled last year to an unsustainable rate. One factor that could add to his red-zone regression is more usage for talented backfield mate Kareem Hunt. Though Chubb came back as good as ever after missing four games in 2020 with an MCL sprain, he suffered a serious knee injury in college as well. The health risk is always hard to quantify but Chubb’s history, combined with his 680 carries over the past three seasons as the team’s workhorse, is cause for concern.

That’s not to suggest crossing him off the cheat sheet. Chubb becomes too hard to resist in draft rooms where the PPR downgrade knocks him into the middle or late second round.

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

The big man is an easy-to-find red-zone target for Tom Brady and he’s scaled 1,000 receiving yards in each of seven seasons. As consistent as he is year-to-year, the drawback is his week-to-week volatility. Evans earns his points in bunches with a profile that makes him most suited for best-ball formats. Coming off a career-high in touchdowns and facing added competition for targets, there are better choices near his ADP in the early fourth round.

Evans caught a personal best 13 touchdowns last year, benefiting from the Brady addition after averaging seven a season from 2017 to 2019. In his first complete year with the Bucs, Antonio Brown will siphon targets. Chris Godwin, arguably the standout among Tampa Bay’s stellar trio of receivers, should see a target increase as well after missing four games in 2020. Tight end O.J. Howard, who was out most of last season but now appears healthy, and free-agent running back addition Giovani Bernard, a prolific receiving option, also need feeding.

Skip past Evans to alternatives like Robert Woods and Amari Cooper, who offer higher PPR point projections at lower ADPs.

Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)

Tonyan had a massive 2020 breakout, going from waiver-wire claim to No. 4 at the position as a ludicrous 11 of his 52 catches went for touchdowns. That came on only 59 targets. Regression will surely reduce his touchdown and reception rates, though his chemistry with Rodgers could lead to a volume increase.

While skittishness over the Rodgers saga has trimmed the premium on Tonyan, he’s still going as a starter even in PPR, where his ADP is in round nine. That wager is dependent on another hefty touchdown haul, and it will look shakier if, say, Jordan Love is the guy flinging him passes.

If you’re waiting on tight end, turn instead to better investments from the large glob of borderline TE1 types, including the one being picked right after Tonyan, Noah Fant. He’s poised for positive regression on the touchdown front.

Undervalued Players

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

Entering his third complete season as Baltimore’s starter, the 24-year-old may offer the best mix of floor, ceiling, and value of any tier-one QB. Jackson is the most productive runner of the bunch, a trait that keeps clunker weeks scarce. He regressed on the ground last year yet still cracked 1,000 yards.

Jackson’s decline was worse in the passing game, but he can easily get at least halfway back to his MVP form of 2019 when he threw for 36 scores and ran for seven more. Splitting the difference makes him a likely top-three overall scorer and a steal at his early fifth-round ADP. Look for Jackson to air it out more, as the run-heavy Ravens covet a balanced attack to return to the Super Bowl. They’ve bolstered the receiving corps with rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace, along with free agent Sammy Watkins.

Target Jackson in Round 3 or 4 with Dak Prescott, whose offense is full of weapons, as a fallback.

Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)

The second-year Washingtonian, like Chubb, scored touchdowns at an unrepeatable clip and was rarely used in the passing game last season. With inherent versatility and an ADP in the early third round, however, he brings league-winning upside. Gibson, who found the end zone 11 times as a rookie, could rack up a similar tally as a boost in carries offsets a lower touchdown rate. He was a hybrid deployed mainly as a wideout in college, so he figures to blossom as an all-around weapon in 2021.

Gibson averaged 4.7 yards per carry last season, coming on strong in the second half. He’s in for an expanded role in the Football Team’s offense, especially on late downs and in the red zone. RB coach Randy Jordan is already salivating about the “night and day” improvement Gibson has shown in practice. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner, meanwhile, is vowing to unleash Gibson’s explosiveness as a receiver. The playmaker averaged 19.3 yards per reception in his senior year at Memphis.

Target Gibson as early as the mid-second round, with Miami’s dual-threat Myles Gaskin as either a fallback or Batman’s Robin a couple of rounds later.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)

Several of his peers from last year’s productive rookie receiver class outperformed Aiyuk, but the first-round pick out of Arizona State overcame obstacles and became a viable flex starter late in the year, flashing big-play ability as a separator and even as a runner. This season, he could yield a fantasy bonanza from his eighth-round ADP.

Aiyuk totaled 60 receptions for 748 yards and five touchdowns in 2020, numbers not far behind any first-year receiver other than Justin Jefferson. That came despite lousy quarterbacking and four missed games due to reasons including Covid protocols. Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins, and CeeDee Lamb -- the only rookie receivers who bested Aiyuk in fantasy points -- all benefited from aggregate passer ratings when targeted above 100 (and as high as 112.7 for Jefferson), according to Pro Football Reference data. The figure for Aiyuk, who had to work mostly with Jimmy Garoppolo’s backups, was 86.6. In other words, a lot of his 96 targets weren’t catchable.

He can make a second-year leap playing with either an impressive rookie, QB Trey Lance, or a motivated  Jimmy G. Target him as early as Round 6 as a third receiver with the potential to be a WR1.

Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)

This is the year to pay up for quarterbacks, but not tight ends. Travis Kelce now costs a first-round pick, while Darren Waller and George Kittle are gone by the middle of the third.

The talent drop-off gets steep after the big three but Higbee, who carries a 14^th-round price after burning drafters in 2020, could emerge with the most value. When tight-end teammate Gerald Everett was sidelined or playing through injury at the end of 2019, Higbee went on a five-game tear, averaging more than eight catches and 100 yards per week. With Everett now in Seattle and the Rams upgrading their QB to Matthew Stafford from Jared Goff, the 28-year-old Higbee looks primed for a late-career breakout.

Target him as early as Round 10 after loading up elsewhere.

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