Early Fantasy Baseball Draft Busts For 2024 Redraft Leagues

3 months ago by Dan Stephens

Spring training is still a couple of months away but preparation for fantasy baseball in 2024 is already underway in some circles. The most committed managers are already drafting for the season ahead, giving the rest of us a preview of what to expect once fantasy drafts are in full swing come spring.

Studying early draft results with a critical eye can reveal some surprising choices. It is important to ask yourself if someone’s ADP is justified or a byproduct of hype surrounding that player. Drafting someone at their artificially inflated value is a misstep that can put you in a hole before the season even begins.

This article will look at some potential draft busts whose ADPs outweigh their likely returns. When you are done reading, check out some of the other preseason content on RotoBaller to get a head start on preparing for your drafts in 2024.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and weekly lineup resources:

Elly De La Cruz (3B/SS), Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 21.83

In his first month as a major leaguer, Elly De La Cruz was hitting .325 and had already racked up 28 runs and 16 stolen bases. In just his 15th game, De La Cruz hit for the cycle, making him the third-fastest player to accomplish that feat. And in the second to last game before the All-Star break, the rookie showcased his speed, stealing second base, third, and home all in the span of two pitches.

ELLY STEALS SECOND, THIRD, AND THEN HOME!

⚡⚡ REDS LEAD 7-5 ⚡⚡ pic.twitter.com/PnTHQXixNU
— Bally Sports Cincinnati (@BallySportsCIN) July 8, 2023

While that first month was a thrilling display of what makes De La Cruz such a highly touted prospect, some downsides became evident as the season progressed. His most glaring fault was his 33.7% strikeout rate, which ended up among the worst in the league. The phenom struggled mightily at the plate after play resumed following the All-Star break, slashing .191/.271/.355 the rest of the season.

The Reds have a lot of depth, so if his struggles from last season continue, it is not out of the question that De La Cruz is moved to a platoon role or even sent back to the minors for seasoning. De La Cruz will be a fantasy stud once he irons out the kinks in his game, but that’s not a necessary gamble with your second pick. Stick to more reliable talent, and let an opponent overpay for potential and a black hole at batting average.

CJ Abrams (SS), Washington Nationals

ADP: 38.43

In 2023, Major League Baseball started using larger bases and enacted new rules that led to a boost in stolen bases across the league. The speedy CJ Abrams took full advantage of the changes and finished the season with 47 stolen bases, the fourth-most in the league. However, a rising tide lifts all boats, so as impressive as his stolen base total was, it did not separate him from other base stealers as it would have in previous years.

Last year, Abrams also hit 18 home runs, which was a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers. He was known to have some pop but had yet to put it into practice, hitting just two homers in his 302 plate appearances as a rookie in 2022 and 12 in his 534 plate appearances in the minor leagues. Abrams’ show of power was somewhat befuddling, however, as his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate ranked in the 16th and 20th percentiles of the league, respectively.

Abrams’ offensive numbers are suspect, especially given the weak Nationals lineup around him, and most of his value comes from stolen bases. Reaching for his steals as we move into an era where they are easier to come by would be a mistake. If you are looking to fill shortstop in the third or fourth round, Bo Bichette is right after Abrams on draft boards and can offer more to the offensive categories while steals can be picked up piecemeal in later rounds.

Cody Bellinger (1B/OF), Free Agent

ADP: 52.77

In 2023, Cody Bellinger looked like he was back to his former self, turning in his best stat line since his 2019 MVP-winning season. Thanks to his career-best 20 stolen bases, Bellinger was one of 19 players in the 20-20 club in 2023. Of that group, he was one of just four (along with Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani) to also finish with a batting average of .300 or greater.

It was great to see Bellinger back in his groove, but there were signs pointing to 2023 being something of a fluke. Despite the 26 home runs he launched last season, he experienced career lows in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. He also outperformed his expected batting average by 37 points and his slugging percentage by almost 100.

Cody Bellinger in 2023...

K: 27.3%➡️15.6%
Whiff: 27.2%➡️20.1%
Z-Contact: 80.9%➡️87.4%
Contact: 76%➡️81.2%
SwStr: 12%➡️9.3%
Worst BRL, AVG EV, and HH% of his career.

51.3 ADP gives minimal ROI opportunity IMO. More of a fade there and a sell-high in dynasty.#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/x8MXhJSiqU
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) December 17, 2023

While Bellinger’s 2023 looked like a return to form, it is hard to ignore the production (or lack thereof) in the previous three seasons. There is also the fact that, as of this writing, Bellinger is still a free agent, so the effects of his team situation and usage are still a mystery. Bellinger is eligible as a first baseman and outfielder and at current ADPs, there are still promising options at either position in the next rounds that offer more certain returns.

Nolan Jones (OF), Colorado Rockies

ADP: 57.63

Not long ago, I highlighted Nolan Jones as one of 2023’s breakout players. After being promoted from Triple-A at the end of May, Jones was immediately a regular starter and put together a 20/20 season in just 424 plate appearances, the shortest amount of time anyone has needed to meet that milestone. His impressive rookie campaign has begotten a level of optimism that has him getting picked in the fifth round of early drafts.

The power that Jones supplied was to be expected and he is capable of providing more of the same in 2024. The 20 stolen bases were a surprise, however. In 533 minor league games since he started in the Guardians' system in 2016, he recorded 32 steals. It’s also worth noting that 12 of his stolen bases came in September, while he averaged just over two per month before that (discounting May, when he only played five games), so he is not exactly a consistent contributor to that category.

Jones hit .297 in 2023, good enough to rank 13th in the majors among players with 400 or more plate appearances and better than sluggers Bryce Harper, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. It will be hard for him to replicate that success in 2024, though. His strikeout rate of 29.7% was not far off his track record as a minor leaguer and it will catch up to him in the future. Not only that, but his BABIP was an astounding .401, a figure that is certain to fall in the future and inflated his average almost 50 points higher than his xBA of .249.

Jones was a great waiver pickup in 2023, but his sudden breakout is fueling a lot of optimism. He benefited from luck unlikely to be repeated in 2024 and a monster September gave his final line a nice boost. His early projections are in line with players like Nick Castellanos, George Springer, and TJ Friedl, who can all be found four to seven rounds later. With so much similar outfield talent available later in the draft, pass on Jones in the fifth round and let him go to an opponent still hyped by last season's strong finish.

J.T. Realmuto (C), Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 71.79

In 2023, the talent at catcher was as deep as it has been in years. Realmuto finished the season as a top-five catcher in fantasy baseball, but he did little to separate himself from his fellow backstops. Outside of his 16 stolen bases, which led all catchers, the rest of his production in the traditional roto categories looks similar to that of other top fantasy catchers from last year.

The chart above shows all catchers from 2023 who hit .250 or better and had at least 15 home runs, 50 runs scored, and 50 RBI. Toss in MJ Melendez and Cal Raleigh (who hit .235 and .230, respectively, but hit the counting stat thresholds) and there were 12 viable options at catcher last season. Let's compare Realmuto’s line to Sean Murphy’s, whose current ADP is 143.08. Is Realmuto’s stolen base potential worth taking him at the start of the seventh round versus Murphy somewhere in the 12th?

Draft strategy aside, there were subtle signs that Realmuto’s value as a hitter might be diminishing in 2023. His groundball rate dropped almost seven full points to 37.6% from the year before and his fly ball and pop-up rates increased to career-highs of 28.9% and 9.3%, respectively. Essentially, he was getting fewer balls through the infield and putting more in the air, which would result in fewer base hits and more fly ball outs. He also had a career-worst 25.6% strikeout rate and a walk rate that slipped for the third consecutive year to 6.5%.

Realmuto’s days as the game’s premier catcher are behind him. A key component of the Phillies’ powerful lineup, he can still put up decent numbers, but his early projections are similar to other catchers going in the 12th round or later. Don’t overvalue his steals. Let another manager take him at the turn between the sixth and seventh rounds in hopes he can beat the suddenly deep field in his age-33 season, so you can fill in a more impactful position.

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