Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - September 2024 Market Report

September 11, 2024

After the 2024 NFL Draft, how have the dynasty fantasy football values of players changed? Who gained value and who lost it? Read the latest fantasy update (August 2024).

Week one of the 2024 NFL season kicks off this week, which means many may believe that dynasty football takes a back seat to its sister leagues. That is not the case. More now than ever, we will see the variance in the dynasty report, week-to-week, and month-to-month.

Luckily, our team of RotoBaller experts, which includes Brandon Murchinson (@RotoSuperstar), Jorden Hill (@JordenHill95), Matt Terrelle (@SuperMT), and myself (@MattDonnellyFF), updates our dynasty rankings as the market changes. 

Looking at our monthly consensus, we can identify fantasy football's biggest risers and those fantasy assets trending downward to allow you to stay ahead of the competition. With this kind of insight, along with the dynasty trade chart, you will be able to move on from players while they are at their peak value.

Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings (September 2024)

Players on the Rise

Terry McLaurin, WR - Washington Commanders (+19)

Previous rank: 74

Current rank: 55

Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin is one of the biggest, notable risers this month. In recent weeks, the Commanders have reorganized their wide receiver room with the departure of Jahan Dotson and the signing of former Houston Texan wideout Noah Brown.

McLaurin has a few things going for him, most notably a young quarterback in Jayden Daniels and an excellent play-caller in Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels is undoubtedly the most talented quarterback McLaurin has played with over his five-year NFL career. 

A quick peek at the Commander's depth chart will show that McLaurin is in line for a 28% target share, which may be on the low end. None of Olamide Zaccheaus, Noah Brown, Dyami Brown, or Luke McCaffrey will pose a threat. After all, with Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas, and Antonio Gibson in the fold last year, McLaurin saw 132 targets. Only Samuel had more than 90.

McLaurin has posted at least 1000 yards in the past four seasons, demanding at least 120 targets each season, with 77 receptions being his lowest total. Knowing that the Commanders will be playing from behind more often than not and that there is no real viable threat to McLaurin in this offense, the Commanders' top target is poised to remain as such for the foreseeable future.

Josh Downs, WR - Indianapolis Colts (+16)

Previous rank: 140

Current rank: 124

As a rookie in 2023, Josh Downs would go on to haul in 68 of 98 targets for 771 yards. Unfortunately for Downs, he suffered a knee injury back in week nine. Before that injury, Downs was putting up some impressive metrics. His targets per route run rate was 21.3%, while his yards per route run was a respectable 1.80. Those numbers dipped after week 9 to a 19.2 target per route run rate and a 1.36 yards per route run.

According to Matt Harmon, of the receivers he has recorded at Reception Perception, Only Garrett Wilson and Nico Collins have had a higher success rate against man coverage, which you see on Downs Reception Perception Profile.

Last season, Downs did an excellent job finding a way to get open. With Michael Pittan Jr. and Adonai Mitchell in the fold, Anthony Richardson is going to be able to lean on Downs as his security blanket not only this season but for years to come. How so? Nearly 43% of Downs' total yards during his rookie campaign were a result of not being his quarterback's first read, the highest such total in the NFL.

Josh Downs may be the least-known extremely fun player in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/HVfq1GNEmA

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 1, 2024

With a quarterback like Richardson, who will be scrambling and playing off-script, it will be Downs, and his ability to get open will benefit the most.

Jordan Mason, RB - San Francisco 49ers (+69)

Previous rank: 322

Current rank: 253

Don't look now, but Jordan Mason is winning the war of attrition in San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey has already dealt with a calf injury. Issac Guerendo has been dealing with a groin injury, and Elijah Mitchell's season ended when he was placed on the IR. Mason was the second running back on the team's depth chart when the dust settled.

If anything were to happen to McCaffrey, Mason would be in line for a healthy helping of fantasy production. Kyle Shanhans' offenses are built for his running backs to produce. Considering McCaffrey's usage, Mason is a great handcuff and has stand-alone value. San Francisco may look to control McCaffrey's touches in 2024.McCaffrey is coming off a season in which he had 339 touches and is dealing with that calf strain. Look for the 49ers to lessen that load and the strain on McCaffrey until playoff time.

Mason's opportunity to prove himself here in 2024. At 223 pounds, Mason has the size to take some goal-line touches to limit hard yards on McCaffrey, while his career 5.6 yards per attempt offers some upside.

Most yards per carry in 2022-23 (min. 75 carries, lol):

1. De'Von Achane (7.9)
2. Jordan Mason (5.6) pic.twitter.com/YbU4Zw8TeQ

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 26, 2024

Other risers: Davante Adams (+8), Bo Nix (+13), Brian Robinson Jr. (+13), J.J. McCarthy (+21), Cooper Kupp (+11), Rashee Rice (+10), Isaiah Pacheco (+)

Trending Downward

Marquise Brown, WR - Kansas City Chiefs (-19)

Previous rank: 89

Current rank: 108

From the penthouse to the outhouse—how quickly the market can change over one month. Marquise Brown suffered a should (SC joint) injury a few weeks back, which did nothing to ease those minds who already labeled Brown as "injury-prone."

For some this latest injury is opening a "buy the dip" period, but it's not without risk. I'm still in on Hollywood, but as the weeks continue to come and go and Brown doesn't get back on the field the concern I will have. Xavier Worthy will continue to get more repetitions.

Rashee Rice will continue to build on his fantasy run from the second half of the season. There is a possibility that Brown's role will be much more minor upon his return than projected when he signed. I'm talking about an actual Wally Pipp-type situation on our hands.

Brown still has time to rebound from this. At 27 years of age, he still has some prime seasons likely ahead. However, he must get on the field to meet those expectations and prove his doubters wrong.

Ricky Pearsall, WR - San Francisco 49ers (-16)

Previous rank: 123

Current rank: 139

Once again, it's been an interesting offseason in San Fransisco. Last season, Deebo Samuel's contract negotiations took place. This season, we had the Brandon Aiyuk sega to deal with. Perhaps no player has seen his stock fluctuate as much as Ricky Pearsall has over the last month.

How you control the ball at first touch: Ricky Pearsall back shoulder on the deep over. #FloridaGators #2024NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/eegMoTtf6f

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 5, 2023

When contract negotiations with Brandon Aiuk seemed to have hit a wall, we saw Peasall's market behind trend upward. This 49ers offense can support two receivers, a running back, a quarterback, and a tight end, so it only made sense that the rookie would be in line for an uptick in value. 

First, Pearsall injured his shoulder, then Brandon Aiyuk signed a four-year 120 million dollar contract, then reports came out that Peasall was in a shooting incident in which he suffered a gunshot to his chest; thankfully, he was released from the hospital a day later. 

As a rookie, you need to be on the field to get those reps in. With the unfortunate incidents, Pearsall missed valuable time and found himself behind Jauan Jennings and potentially Jacob Cowing on the team's depth chart. Here's hoping we see Pearsall back on the field sooner rather than later.

Stefan Diggs, WR, Houston Texans(-6)

Previous rank: 65

Current rank: 71

When looking at the dynasty report, one of the more intriguing names for fantasy is Stefan Diggs.

Diggs enters his tenth season on his third team, which raises more questions than answers, considering he is coming off six consecutive 1000-yard seasons in which he has registered 100 or more receptions and 145 targets over five of the last six seasons.

One of my favorite articles comes courtesy of Ryan Health of Fantasy Points. In his Fantasy Football Age Curve piece, he explains that compared to a receiver's fantasy baseline, we see a decline from 95.8% to 80.5% from years 9 to 10, then another drop in fantasy production from 80.5% to 71.4% from year 10 to 11. Here is where we are sitting when it comes to Diggs.  

"Starting at age 30, WR production falls below what elite players have averaged over their careers. The steepest decline comes at age 32 when elite fantasy seasons become exceedingly rare". - Ryan Heath

Compounding that fear of lost production is that he is joining a Texans offense with some additional impressive fantasy options. Coming from Buffalo, Diggs only had competition for touches from James Cooks and Gabriel Davis. In Houston, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz have already established themselves, and newly acquired Joe Mixon also brings a formidable resume from Cincinnati.

Notable dips: Jahan Dotson (-43), Jelani Woods (-18), Kendre Miller (-31), Zay Jones (-42), AJ Dillon (-20), Tyler Lockett (-9), De'Von Achane (-3)

Dynasty Trade Value Chart

Name to Know

Greg Dortch, WR - Arizona Cardinals(+12)

Previous rank: 216

Current rank: 204

You have to look for potential opportunities when looking for late-round values or affordable trade options. One such player happens to be the primary slot receiver in Arizona, Greg Dortch. With the recent suspension of Zay Jones, Dortch has even more opportunity to become fantasy-relevant.

Ahead of Dortch are pass catchers Michael Wilson, Trey McBride, and the rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. We know that Harrison Jr. and McBride are going to get their targets. After that, how will the opportunities be divided up?

"If he was 6' 3", he'd be a top 5 pick."

--Kyler Murray on #AZCardinals WR Greg Dortch

"I feel like Dortch is unguardable as far as 1-on-1, knowing where to be in the zones. He's got that nuance and savvy to him you want in a WR...it's not very common." pic.twitter.com/0QO8XKpyTN

— Paul Calvisi (@PaulCalvisi) June 6, 2024

Kyler Murray has already talked about how good Dortch has been and how underrated the Cardinal receiver is. At 26, Dortch is just entering the prime of his career with one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy from a fantasy points-per-game basis.

Get Dortch now before it's too late. 

Maximize Return Now

Raheem Mostert, RB - Miami Dolphins (+15)

Previous rank: 131

Current rank: 116

Now is the time to move on from Raheem Mostert before it's too late and you get Frank Gore'd. 

Gore was a player I couldn't trade because he kept on giving me production. Eventually, it got to a point where the production was no longer there, yet Gore remained on my roster. Gore was too good to drop, not good enough to get any return on my investment.

That is where we are heading with Moster as the 32-year-old enters his 13th season. Act now, and according to my dynasty trade chart, you could acquire some younger talent, such as Zach Charbonnet, Josh Downs, Troy Franklin, or Adonai Mitchell.

After producing 20 of his career 39 touchdowns in 2023, Mostert is a prime regression candidate. You will need to use that production to your advantage to make a deal to acquire anything of value.

#Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel on how he’ll distribute RB touches:

“Just trying to get individuals opportunities, and let those opportunities shape their overall breadth of how many touches they get in the course of a game… Just to get everybody involved is important for me, and… pic.twitter.com/1ikV2Bg3d9

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 2, 2024

Early in September, Mike McDaniel talked about splitting touches and opportunities among all his backs, including De'Vone Achane and Jaylen Wright. I expect those touches to be divided up with a 40-40-20 type split.

Buy the Dip

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR - San Francisco 49ers (-6)

Previous rank: 34

Current rank: 40

One player who saw his market trend down since August was Deebo Samuel of the San Francisco 49ers. Why? The obvious answer was Brandon Aiyuk's signing of that multi-year contract. That means Samuel Sr. is likely to leave the 49ers in 2026 when he will likely enter free agency as a 30-year-old.

Looking at the age curve, you have 2-3 more seasons of productivity, which aligns with what is remaining in his time with the 49ers. Looking at the trade chart, you could flip a running back like Najee Harris, D'Andre Swift, or David Montgomery to lock in a solid WR2 over the next few seasons, which strengthens your championship aspirations right now. 

You're TOO LOW on Deebo Samuel!😤

Last season👇
🔥527 YAC (#9)
🔥34.0% Juke Rate (#1)
🔥0.67 Fantasy Points Per Route Run (#2)
🔥16.3 FPPG (#12)

Are YOU drafting him right now?📢 pic.twitter.com/Fwz2t7BQkH

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) August 17, 2024

You have a sell window likely opening once Samuel Sr. signs that new free-agent deal. Take advantage of the hype before that 32—or 33-year-old season tanks his value. Until then, enjoy Samuel and that fantasy production.

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