X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

DraftKings NFL DFS: Week 4 Price Analysis & Picks

Marcus Mariota - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week four to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back for another "primer" for the Sunday NFL slate. I hope this helped last week and will continue to help throughout the year. It should be used as just a way to start the week.

I'm no NFL DFS expert by any means, so I'm trying my best to just stick to the projections here. You will find some plays here that stick out just because of their projection and price, we aren't looking at things in terms of stacks or game theory or anything like that - so just keep all of that in mind.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, October 2nd. This analysis and picks will get stronger as we get deeper into the season as more data and clarity comes to the front. Let's dive into it!

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 50% off using code SUMMER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Josh Allen $8,400 BAL 26.7
Jalen Hurts $8,200 JAX 25,9
Lamar Jackson $8,300 BUF 22.4
Kyler Murray $7,600 CAR 19.4
Justin Herbert $7,100 HOU 18.5

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Justin Fields $5,300 NYG 17.3
Derek Carr $5,800 DEN 18.5
Josh Allen $8,400 BAL 26.7
Marcus Mariota $5,600 CLE 17.6
Jared Goff $5,900 SEA 18.4

 

I don't believe you can actually go to Justin Fields at this point, and the Broncos seem like a pretty uninspiring team to play quarterbacks against. That would leave us with these names looking most interesting for the week.

 

Josh Allen $8,200 vs. BAL

The Bills are the top team in the league in pass rate over expectation. Josh Allen has thrown the ball 31, 38, and 62(!) times this year, and has added 19 rush attempts. He has 1,014 pass yards and 113 rush yards through three games. What more can be said? The price is rightfully very high, but you can see that the projection suggests it might not be high enough. This game has major blow-up potential with how good Lamar Jackson has played, so Allen is worth the money in this spot.

 

Lamar Jackson $8,300 vs. BUF

Lamar is doing what he's been doing for years now. He has rushed for 243 yards and passed for 749 more in three games this year. He's also taken the touchdown rate to a new level this year (although it is likely completely unsustainable), tossing the ball for 10 touchdowns through three games. He has scored the most DraftKings points of any player this year, and he gets to play at a higher pace this week against the Bills. Great spot for Lamar.

 

Marcus Mariota ($5,600) vs. CLE

If you aren't willing or able to pay the big price for Allen/Jackson, Mariota appears to be the best pay-down option here. He has taken the reins in Atlanta and has shown off a decent fantasy floor so far without having anything close to a ceiling game yet. He has scored 16, 13, and 20 DraftKings points this year, he has rushed the ball 25 times in three games, and gone for at least 194 pass yards in each game. None of these numbers are high, but it shows you the solidness of his floor. Mariota has upside for 15 rush attempts and 220 pass yards, so with some touchdown luck he could put up a really big fantasy score at just $5,600.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Jonathan Taylor $8,800 TEN 20.5
Saquon Barkley $8,000 CHI 20.2
Christian McCaffrey $8,700 ARI 19.5
Austin Ekeler $7,700 HOU 18.5
Derrick Henry $8,300 IND 18.4

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
David Montgomery $6,200 NYG 16.8
Saquon Barkley $8,000 CHI 20.2
James Conner $6,300 CAR 15.2
Austin Ekeler $7,700 HOU 18.5
Antonio Gibson $6,000 DAL 14.4

 

Saquon Barkley ($8,000) vs. Bears

That first table is pretty interesting to see, as the top three guys all project within one point of each other - but Barkley is $700 cheaper. He has a similar role and similar talent to Taylor and McCaffrey, but for now, we're still rolling with a pretty nice discount. The downside is the nature of this game. The over/under on the game is currently 39 points - a very small number. That might should, in theory, lower the touchdown expectation for Barkley - but it's not like the ther high-priced running backs are on juggernaut offenses either (the Colts are in a game total of 42.5, and the Panthers are at just 44). I'll take the elite usage for Barkley at the discount one more time while we still have it.

 

David Montgomery ($6,200) vs. Giants

On the other side of that game, we have Montgomery projecting very well. The projection does assume full health, which is a murky assumption to make. We will need more clarity on this situation before making this decision, but if we assume that he's back to the role of weeks one and two, he's a smash play. He ran the ball 17 and 15 times in weeks one and two and added five catches on six targets. The offense around him is pretty ugly, but it's really tough to find a guy that projects for around 20 touches at this low of a price tag.

 

James Conner ($6,300) vs. Panthers

Another running back with good usage but injury questions right now. Conner profiles to get the lion's share of the running back work in this Cardinals offense, and he's a goalline specialist. We know the Cardinals can move the ball if they're going right, and that gives Conner a lot of touchdown upside. We must keep an eye on the injury reports in this situation too though.

 

Austin Ekeler ($7,700) vs. Texans

Ekeler's floor is just so nice as he's earned 22 targets through three games while totaling 219 total yards. His yards-per-touch mark is lower than expected right now, and he still hasn't found paydirt - so there's some positive regression coming as far as fantasy points goes, I think. That makes Ekeler a great floor/ceiling play here against the Texans.

 

Note: I don't have a great feel for Jamaal Williams' projection this week without D'Andre Swift. He could certainly be a nice play this week, but the price tag isn't so low where it's an obvious play ($6,100).

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Stefon Diggs $8,400 BAL 21.3
Davante Adams $8,300 DEN 20.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,700 SEA 19.6
A.J. Brown $7,400 JAX 17.3
CeeDee Lamb $6,700 WAS 17.0

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Nelson Agholor $3,900 GB 10.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,700 SEA 19.6
CeeDee Lamb $6,700 WAS 17.0
Stefon Diggs $8,400 BAL 21.2
Brandin Cooks $5,800 LAC 1.4.7

 

Stefon Diggs ($8,400) vs. BAL

We talked about the Bills and how great they are for fantasy in the Josh Allen write-up, and all of that applies directly to Diggs. We saw the price go up a bit after his hot start to the year, but it still might not be high enough. Diggs has 9, 15, and 11 targets and is a go-to in the red zone as well with seven red zone targets already.

 

Davante Adams ($8,300) vs. DEN

He might be more of a GPP play as we have seen some volatility with him and the Raiders already, but Adams has a league-leading 10 red zone targets and is second overall in the league with 34 total targets. He has caught a touchdown in each game, but has just suffered in the efficiency department, catching just seven of his 17 targets over the last two weeks. The usage is absurd, and he's bound to have some more massive games this year. You may be able to capture one of those this week at lower ownership.

 

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700) vs. SEA

He's questionable right now, which is weird since he came back in the second half after the original ankle roll. We will have to keep an eye on his status, but if he's a full-go, there are few receivers with a higher floor (especially with Cooper Kupp off the slate). He has earned 12, 12, and 9 targets in his three games, good for a big 31% target share. The Lions are right there with the Bills at 28 implied points by the Vegas lines; a testament to how bad their defense and how they play he game. It's possible they play a bit slower with Swift out, and it's also possible that St. Brown plays without being 100%, so it's not a lock-button play here, but certainly considerable for cash.

 

Nelson Agholor ($3,900) vs. GB

He hasn't been very good for fantasy yet this year, with just 34 DraftKings points, most of which came on a long touchdown he caught in week two. He scored just eight points between weeks one and three, showing his earth's core level floor. The projections like him enough to make him an option at just $3,900 - but it is a pretty thin play all things considered.

 

CeeDee Lamb ($6,700) vs. WAS

He leads the Cowboys in targets (34) and consequently air yards (338). His ADoT of 9.9 is solid for someone averaging double-digit targets per game. The ceiling is huge with Lamb. The Commanders have already allowed three receivers to exceed 20 points against them (Amon-Ra St. Brown 42, Christian Kirk 21, DeVonta Smith 34, A.J. Brown 20), so the Cowboys are in a pretty good spot to do some damage here. It's even possible they get Dak Prescott back for this game - which would be another boost for Lamb as he's a favorite of Prescott's as well.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Mark Andrews $7,100 BUF 16.5
Darren Waller $5,600 DEN 14.0
Zach Ertz $4,700 CAR 11.6
Dallas Goedert $4,500 JAX 11.4
Kyle Pitts $5,00 CLE 11.4

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Gerald Everett $4,000 HOU 10.6
T.J. Hockenson $4,100 SEA 10.8
Evan Engram $3,400 PHI 8.9
Hunter Henry $2,900 GB 7.4
Dallas Goedert $4,500 JAX 11.4

 

Mark Andrews ($7,100) vs. BUF

If you're game stacking this one, Andrews is a must. He has a crazy amount of air yards (376, second most in the league), and has 31 targets in three games while catching three touchdowns as well. If the Ravens are going to keep pace with the Bills, Andrews is likely to be a big part of it.

 

Gerald Everett ($4,000) vs. HOU

Among tight ends, Everett is ninth in routes run, seventh in targets, and eighth in DraftKings points. Taht doesn't sound like a guy who should be priced at $4,000 against the Texans now does it?

 

Evan Engram ($3,400) vs. PHI

This could be another shootout game, as we have two young and exciting quarterbacks doing battle. Engram has run at least 26 routes in each of his three games, with 17 targets to go along with it. That's not a crazy great ratio, and he typically doesn't pile up many yards (just 83 on 12 catches so far), but for $3,400 you have a pretty nice floor here if you're punting the position.

 

T.J. Hockenson ($4,100) vs. SEA

He is pretty dependent on the touchdown, and he's maxed out at just seven targets and 38 receiving yards so far - but Hockenson has multiple touchdown upside pretty easily here with how well the Lions are projecting out in this spot.

 

Hope this helps, good luck this week and happy weekday grinding!

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Day'Ron Sharpe

Heads to Free Agency
Santi Aldama

Receives Qualifying Offer
Moritz Wagner

has Team Option Declined
Jabari Smith Jr.

Signs Massive Extension
Jusuf Nurkić

Hornets Trading Jusuf Nurkic to Utah
Collin Sexton

Heading to Charlotte
Cam Thomas

Set for Restricted Free Agency
Bobby Portis

Staying in Milwaukee
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
NHL

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
James Harden

Clippers Agree on a New Contract
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Joel Hofer

Commits to Blues for Two More Years
Kevin Bahl

Signs Long-Term Extension with Flames
Jordan Spence

Traded to Ottawa
Petr Mrazek

Heads to Anaheim
John Gibson

Red Wings Acquire John Gibson
Matthew Knies

Inks Six-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Aaron Judge

Blasts Two Homers
Claude Giroux

Signs One-Year Deal with Senators
Yordan Alvarez

has Chance to Return Next Weekend
Julius Randle

Signs Three-Year Extension
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Opts into Player Option
Luis Robert Jr.

Heads to Injured List
Gabriel Arias

Carted Off on Sunday
Bryce Harper

Faces Live Pitching
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Remains Out on Sunday
Utah Jazz

Bojan Bogdanovic Retiring From Basketball
Dorian Finney-Smith

Declines Player Option
Jaylin Williams

Signing Three-Year Extension
LeBron James

Accepts Player Option
Anfernee Simons

"a Possible Re-Trade Candidate"
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Yordan Alvarez

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
Kevin Porter Jr.

Declining Player Option
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Quinn Priester

Fans 11 in One-Hit Gem
Garrett Temple

Returning to Toronto
Nicolas Batum

Declines Player Option
Spencer Schwellenbach

Dominant in Victory
Keon Johnson

Gets Team Option Picked Up
Rayan Rupert

Staying in Portland
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Out of Lineup Saturday
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Garrett Mitchell

to Undergo Shoulder Surgery
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez in Guardians Lineup on Saturday
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Ty Dillon

Could Benefit from Kaulig Speed
Cody Ware

Rarely Enough Attrition at Atlanta for Cody Ware to Seriously Contend
Ryan Blaney

Is Always Strong at Atlanta
Joey Logano

Wins Pole, Looking for Third Atlanta Win
Chase Burns

Slated to Make Next Start on Monday
Dylan Sampson

Being Used as a Receiver
Carson Schwesinger

Figures to be in Full-Time Role in 2025
Cedric Tillman

Should Have Full-Time Role
Bryce Young

Looking More Comfortable, Showing More Intensity
Charlie Coyle

Blue Jackets Acquire Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood From Colorado
Jack Quinn

Signs Up for Two More Years with Sabres
Brandon Saad

Stays in Vegas on One-Year Deal
Trent Frederic

Inks Eight-Year Extension
Josh Naylor

Exits Friday's Contest Early with Neck Stiffness
Emil Heineman

Shipped to the Islanders
Noah Dobson

Traded to Montreal
John Tavares

Agrees to Four-Year Extension with Maple Leafs
Sam Bennett

Signs Eight-Year Extension with Panthers
NYI

Islanders Select Matthew Schaefer With No. 1 Pick in NHL Draft
José Berríos

Jose Berrios Tosses Seven Scoreless Innings in Fourth Win
Nick Martinez

Flirts With No-Hitter, Settles for Win
Gary Sánchez

Gary Sanchez Homers, Reaches Five Times in Onslaught
Trea Turner

Blasts Two Homers, Steals Base
Los Angeles Angels

Ron Washington to Remain on Medical Leave for Rest of the Season
Jeremy Peña

Imaging Negative on Jeremy Pena's Ribs on Friday
Spencer Steer

Slugs Three Home Runs in Win
Aaron Rodgers

Roman Wilson Could Fit Nicely With Aaron Rodgers
Josh Simmons

on Schedule to Open the Year as a Starter
Micah Parsons

Contract Length an Issue for Cowboys, Micah Parsons
Denver Broncos

Broncos Unsure How Their Running Back Room Will Look
Russell Wilson

Not the Only Leader in Giants Clubhouse
Jihaad Campbell

to Begin at Inside Linebacker
Josh Conerly Jr.

to Play Right Tackle for Now
Tyleik Williams

Expected to Fill Big Role Right Away
Malaki Starks

Should Make an Immediate Impact
James Pearce Jr.

Impressing the Falcons
Jaxson Dart

has "Excellent" Spring
Donovan Jackson

has Inside Track on Starting Job
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
Daniil Tarasov

Panthers Bring in Daniil Tarasov
Frederick Gaudreau

Kraken Pick Up Frederick Gaudreau From Wild
Michael Thorbjornsen

Returns in Detroit at Rocket Classic
Adam Hadwin

Could Struggle Over the Weekend in Detroit
Cam Davis

Hopes Detroit Magic Can Spark Turnaround
Matt Wallace

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Rocket Classic
Joel Dahmen

Not Cutting it Lately
Michael Kim

Searching for Spark at Rocket Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

a High-Ceiling Play in Rocket Classic
Matt McCarty

a Wild Card Heading into Detroit
Emiliano Grillo

Rolling into the Summer Season
Rickie Fowler

Looking for More Magic at Rocket Classic
Wyndham Clark

Brings High Upside to Detroit Golf Club
Max Greyserman

Could Make Noise at Rocket Classic
Akshay Bhatia

a Strong Value Play at Rocket Classic
Eric Cole

Hoping for Better Times at Rocket Classic
Beau Hossler

Searching for Form at Rocket Classic
PGA

Byeong Hun An in Good Form Heading into Rocket Classic
Cameron Young

Looking For Redemption and Possible First Career Victory in Detroit
Collin Morikawa

is The Headliner This Week in Detroit For Good Reason
Si Woo Kim

Back in Competition After Last Week's Withdrawal
PGA

Alex Noren Finishes Tied For 30th at Travelers Championship
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut at RBC Canadian Open
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF