September 27, 2022

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week four to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back for another "primer" for the Sunday NFL slate. I hope this helped last week and will continue to help throughout the year. It should be used as just a way to start the week.

I'm no NFL DFS expert by any means, so I'm trying my best to just stick to the projections here. You will find some plays here that stick out just because of their projection and price, we aren't looking at things in terms of stacks or game theory or anything like that - so just keep all of that in mind.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, October 2nd. This analysis and picks will get stronger as we get deeper into the season as more data and clarity comes to the front. Let's dive into it!

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

I don't believe you can actually go to Justin Fields at this point, and the Broncos seem like a pretty uninspiring team to play quarterbacks against. That would leave us with these names looking most interesting for the week.

Josh Allen $8,200 vs. BAL

The Bills are the top team in the league in pass rate over expectation. Josh Allen has thrown the ball 31, 38, and 62(!) times this year, and has added 19 rush attempts. He has 1,014 pass yards and 113 rush yards through three games. What more can be said? The price is rightfully very high, but you can see that the projection suggests it might not be high enough. This game has major blow-up potential with how good Lamar Jackson has played, so Allen is worth the money in this spot.

Lamar Jackson $8,300 vs. BUF

Lamar is doing what he's been doing for years now. He has rushed for 243 yards and passed for 749 more in three games this year. He's also taken the touchdown rate to a new level this year (although it is likely completely unsustainable), tossing the ball for 10 touchdowns through three games. He has scored the most DraftKings points of any player this year, and he gets to play at a higher pace this week against the Bills. Great spot for Lamar.

Marcus Mariota ($5,600) vs. CLE

If you aren't willing or able to pay the big price for Allen/Jackson, Mariota appears to be the best pay-down option here. He has taken the reins in Atlanta and has shown off a decent fantasy floor so far without having anything close to a ceiling game yet. He has scored 16, 13, and 20 DraftKings points this year, he has rushed the ball 25 times in three games, and gone for at least 194 pass yards in each game. None of these numbers are high, but it shows you the solidness of his floor. Mariota has upside for 15 rush attempts and 220 pass yards, so with some touchdown luck he could put up a really big fantasy score at just $5,600.

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

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Saquon Barkley ($8,000) vs. Bears

That first table is pretty interesting to see, as the top three guys all project within one point of each other - but Barkley is $700 cheaper. He has a similar role and similar talent to Taylor and McCaffrey, but for now, we're still rolling with a pretty nice discount. The downside is the nature of this game. The over/under on the game is currently 39 points - a very small number. That might should, in theory, lower the touchdown expectation for Barkley - but it's not like the ther high-priced running backs are on juggernaut offenses either (the Colts are in a game total of 42.5, and the Panthers are at just 44). I'll take the elite usage for Barkley at the discount one more time while we still have it.

David Montgomery ($6,200) vs. Giants

On the other side of that game, we have Montgomery projecting very well. The projection does assume full health, which is a murky assumption to make. We will need more clarity on this situation before making this decision, but if we assume that he's back to the role of weeks one and two, he's a smash play. He ran the ball 17 and 15 times in weeks one and two and added five catches on six targets. The offense around him is pretty ugly, but it's really tough to find a guy that projects for around 20 touches at this low of a price tag.

James Conner ($6,300) vs. Panthers

Another running back with good usage but injury questions right now. Conner profiles to get the lion's share of the running back work in this Cardinals offense, and he's a goalline specialist. We know the Cardinals can move the ball if they're going right, and that gives Conner a lot of touchdown upside. We must keep an eye on the injury reports in this situation too though.

Austin Ekeler ($7,700) vs. Texans

Ekeler's floor is just so nice as he's earned 22 targets through three games while totaling 219 total yards. His yards-per-touch mark is lower than expected right now, and he still hasn't found paydirt - so there's some positive regression coming as far as fantasy points goes, I think. That makes Ekeler a great floor/ceiling play here against the Texans.

Note: I don't have a great feel for Jamaal Williams' projection this week without D'Andre Swift. He could certainly be a nice play this week, but the price tag isn't so low where it's an obvious play ($6,100).

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

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Stefon Diggs ($8,400) vs. BAL

We talked about the Bills and how great they are for fantasy in the Josh Allen write-up, and all of that applies directly to Diggs. We saw the price go up a bit after his hot start to the year, but it still might not be high enough. Diggs has 9, 15, and 11 targets and is a go-to in the red zone as well with seven red zone targets already.

Davante Adams ($8,300) vs. DEN

He might be more of a GPP play as we have seen some volatility with him and the Raiders already, but Adams has a league-leading 10 red zone targets and is second overall in the league with 34 total targets. He has caught a touchdown in each game, but has just suffered in the efficiency department, catching just seven of his 17 targets over the last two weeks. The usage is absurd, and he's bound to have some more massive games this year. You may be able to capture one of those this week at lower ownership.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700) vs. SEA

He's questionable right now, which is weird since he came back in the second half after the original ankle roll. We will have to keep an eye on his status, but if he's a full-go, there are few receivers with a higher floor (especially with Cooper Kupp off the slate). He has earned 12, 12, and 9 targets in his three games, good for a big 31% target share. The Lions are right there with the Bills at 28 implied points by the Vegas lines; a testament to how bad their defense and how they play he game. It's possible they play a bit slower with Swift out, and it's also possible that St. Brown plays without being 100%, so it's not a lock-button play here, but certainly considerable for cash.

Nelson Agholor ($3,900) vs. GB

He hasn't been very good for fantasy yet this year, with just 34 DraftKings points, most of which came on a long touchdown he caught in week two. He scored just eight points between weeks one and three, showing his earth's core level floor. The projections like him enough to make him an option at just $3,900 - but it is a pretty thin play all things considered.

CeeDee Lamb ($6,700) vs. WAS

He leads the Cowboys in targets (34) and consequently air yards (338). His ADoT of 9.9 is solid for someone averaging double-digit targets per game. The ceiling is huge with Lamb. The Commanders have already allowed three receivers to exceed 20 points against them (Amon-Ra St. Brown 42, Christian Kirk 21, DeVonta Smith 34, A.J. Brown 20), so the Cowboys are in a pretty good spot to do some damage here. It's even possible they get Dak Prescott back for this game - which would be another boost for Lamb as he's a favorite of Prescott's as well.

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

 Top Values

Mark Andrews ($7,100) vs. BUF

If you're game stacking this one, Andrews is a must. He has a crazy amount of air yards (376, second most in the league), and has 31 targets in three games while catching three touchdowns as well. If the Ravens are going to keep pace with the Bills, Andrews is likely to be a big part of it.

Gerald Everett ($4,000) vs. HOU

Among tight ends, Everett is ninth in routes run, seventh in targets, and eighth in DraftKings points. Taht doesn't sound like a guy who should be priced at $4,000 against the Texans now does it?

Evan Engram ($3,400) vs. PHI

This could be another shootout game, as we have two young and exciting quarterbacks doing battle. Engram has run at least 26 routes in each of his three games, with 17 targets to go along with it. That's not a crazy great ratio, and he typically doesn't pile up many yards (just 83 on 12 catches so far), but for $3,400 you have a pretty nice floor here if you're punting the position.

T.J. Hockenson ($4,100) vs. SEA

He is pretty dependent on the touchdown, and he's maxed out at just seven targets and 38 receiving yards so far - but Hockenson has multiple touchdown upside pretty easily here with how well the Lions are projecting out in this spot.

Hope this helps, good luck this week and happy weekday grinding!

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