X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

DraftKings NFL DFS: Week 4 Price Analysis & Picks

Marcus Mariota - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week four to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.

Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back for another "primer" for the Sunday NFL slate. I hope this helped last week and will continue to help throughout the year. It should be used as just a way to start the week.

I'm no NFL DFS expert by any means, so I'm trying my best to just stick to the projections here. You will find some plays here that stick out just because of their projection and price, we aren't looking at things in terms of stacks or game theory or anything like that - so just keep all of that in mind.

We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, October 2nd. This analysis and picks will get stronger as we get deeper into the season as more data and clarity comes to the front. Let's dive into it!

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 50% off using code SUMMER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Josh Allen $8,400 BAL 26.7
Jalen Hurts $8,200 JAX 25,9
Lamar Jackson $8,300 BUF 22.4
Kyler Murray $7,600 CAR 19.4
Justin Herbert $7,100 HOU 18.5

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Justin Fields $5,300 NYG 17.3
Derek Carr $5,800 DEN 18.5
Josh Allen $8,400 BAL 26.7
Marcus Mariota $5,600 CLE 17.6
Jared Goff $5,900 SEA 18.4

 

I don't believe you can actually go to Justin Fields at this point, and the Broncos seem like a pretty uninspiring team to play quarterbacks against. That would leave us with these names looking most interesting for the week.

 

Josh Allen $8,200 vs. BAL

The Bills are the top team in the league in pass rate over expectation. Josh Allen has thrown the ball 31, 38, and 62(!) times this year, and has added 19 rush attempts. He has 1,014 pass yards and 113 rush yards through three games. What more can be said? The price is rightfully very high, but you can see that the projection suggests it might not be high enough. This game has major blow-up potential with how good Lamar Jackson has played, so Allen is worth the money in this spot.

 

Lamar Jackson $8,300 vs. BUF

Lamar is doing what he's been doing for years now. He has rushed for 243 yards and passed for 749 more in three games this year. He's also taken the touchdown rate to a new level this year (although it is likely completely unsustainable), tossing the ball for 10 touchdowns through three games. He has scored the most DraftKings points of any player this year, and he gets to play at a higher pace this week against the Bills. Great spot for Lamar.

 

Marcus Mariota ($5,600) vs. CLE

If you aren't willing or able to pay the big price for Allen/Jackson, Mariota appears to be the best pay-down option here. He has taken the reins in Atlanta and has shown off a decent fantasy floor so far without having anything close to a ceiling game yet. He has scored 16, 13, and 20 DraftKings points this year, he has rushed the ball 25 times in three games, and gone for at least 194 pass yards in each game. None of these numbers are high, but it shows you the solidness of his floor. Mariota has upside for 15 rush attempts and 220 pass yards, so with some touchdown luck he could put up a really big fantasy score at just $5,600.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Jonathan Taylor $8,800 TEN 20.5
Saquon Barkley $8,000 CHI 20.2
Christian McCaffrey $8,700 ARI 19.5
Austin Ekeler $7,700 HOU 18.5
Derrick Henry $8,300 IND 18.4

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
David Montgomery $6,200 NYG 16.8
Saquon Barkley $8,000 CHI 20.2
James Conner $6,300 CAR 15.2
Austin Ekeler $7,700 HOU 18.5
Antonio Gibson $6,000 DAL 14.4

 

Saquon Barkley ($8,000) vs. Bears

That first table is pretty interesting to see, as the top three guys all project within one point of each other - but Barkley is $700 cheaper. He has a similar role and similar talent to Taylor and McCaffrey, but for now, we're still rolling with a pretty nice discount. The downside is the nature of this game. The over/under on the game is currently 39 points - a very small number. That might should, in theory, lower the touchdown expectation for Barkley - but it's not like the ther high-priced running backs are on juggernaut offenses either (the Colts are in a game total of 42.5, and the Panthers are at just 44). I'll take the elite usage for Barkley at the discount one more time while we still have it.

 

David Montgomery ($6,200) vs. Giants

On the other side of that game, we have Montgomery projecting very well. The projection does assume full health, which is a murky assumption to make. We will need more clarity on this situation before making this decision, but if we assume that he's back to the role of weeks one and two, he's a smash play. He ran the ball 17 and 15 times in weeks one and two and added five catches on six targets. The offense around him is pretty ugly, but it's really tough to find a guy that projects for around 20 touches at this low of a price tag.

 

James Conner ($6,300) vs. Panthers

Another running back with good usage but injury questions right now. Conner profiles to get the lion's share of the running back work in this Cardinals offense, and he's a goalline specialist. We know the Cardinals can move the ball if they're going right, and that gives Conner a lot of touchdown upside. We must keep an eye on the injury reports in this situation too though.

 

Austin Ekeler ($7,700) vs. Texans

Ekeler's floor is just so nice as he's earned 22 targets through three games while totaling 219 total yards. His yards-per-touch mark is lower than expected right now, and he still hasn't found paydirt - so there's some positive regression coming as far as fantasy points goes, I think. That makes Ekeler a great floor/ceiling play here against the Texans.

 

Note: I don't have a great feel for Jamaal Williams' projection this week without D'Andre Swift. He could certainly be a nice play this week, but the price tag isn't so low where it's an obvious play ($6,100).

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Stefon Diggs $8,400 BAL 21.3
Davante Adams $8,300 DEN 20.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,700 SEA 19.6
A.J. Brown $7,400 JAX 17.3
CeeDee Lamb $6,700 WAS 17.0

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Nelson Agholor $3,900 GB 10.6
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,700 SEA 19.6
CeeDee Lamb $6,700 WAS 17.0
Stefon Diggs $8,400 BAL 21.2
Brandin Cooks $5,800 LAC 1.4.7

 

Stefon Diggs ($8,400) vs. BAL

We talked about the Bills and how great they are for fantasy in the Josh Allen write-up, and all of that applies directly to Diggs. We saw the price go up a bit after his hot start to the year, but it still might not be high enough. Diggs has 9, 15, and 11 targets and is a go-to in the red zone as well with seven red zone targets already.

 

Davante Adams ($8,300) vs. DEN

He might be more of a GPP play as we have seen some volatility with him and the Raiders already, but Adams has a league-leading 10 red zone targets and is second overall in the league with 34 total targets. He has caught a touchdown in each game, but has just suffered in the efficiency department, catching just seven of his 17 targets over the last two weeks. The usage is absurd, and he's bound to have some more massive games this year. You may be able to capture one of those this week at lower ownership.

 

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,700) vs. SEA

He's questionable right now, which is weird since he came back in the second half after the original ankle roll. We will have to keep an eye on his status, but if he's a full-go, there are few receivers with a higher floor (especially with Cooper Kupp off the slate). He has earned 12, 12, and 9 targets in his three games, good for a big 31% target share. The Lions are right there with the Bills at 28 implied points by the Vegas lines; a testament to how bad their defense and how they play he game. It's possible they play a bit slower with Swift out, and it's also possible that St. Brown plays without being 100%, so it's not a lock-button play here, but certainly considerable for cash.

 

Nelson Agholor ($3,900) vs. GB

He hasn't been very good for fantasy yet this year, with just 34 DraftKings points, most of which came on a long touchdown he caught in week two. He scored just eight points between weeks one and three, showing his earth's core level floor. The projections like him enough to make him an option at just $3,900 - but it is a pretty thin play all things considered.

 

CeeDee Lamb ($6,700) vs. WAS

He leads the Cowboys in targets (34) and consequently air yards (338). His ADoT of 9.9 is solid for someone averaging double-digit targets per game. The ceiling is huge with Lamb. The Commanders have already allowed three receivers to exceed 20 points against them (Amon-Ra St. Brown 42, Christian Kirk 21, DeVonta Smith 34, A.J. Brown 20), so the Cowboys are in a pretty good spot to do some damage here. It's even possible they get Dak Prescott back for this game - which would be another boost for Lamb as he's a favorite of Prescott's as well.

 

DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends

Top Raw Projections

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Mark Andrews $7,100 BUF 16.5
Darren Waller $5,600 DEN 14.0
Zach Ertz $4,700 CAR 11.6
Dallas Goedert $4,500 JAX 11.4
Kyle Pitts $5,00 CLE 11.4

 Top Values

Player Salary Opponent Projection
Gerald Everett $4,000 HOU 10.6
T.J. Hockenson $4,100 SEA 10.8
Evan Engram $3,400 PHI 8.9
Hunter Henry $2,900 GB 7.4
Dallas Goedert $4,500 JAX 11.4

 

Mark Andrews ($7,100) vs. BUF

If you're game stacking this one, Andrews is a must. He has a crazy amount of air yards (376, second most in the league), and has 31 targets in three games while catching three touchdowns as well. If the Ravens are going to keep pace with the Bills, Andrews is likely to be a big part of it.

 

Gerald Everett ($4,000) vs. HOU

Among tight ends, Everett is ninth in routes run, seventh in targets, and eighth in DraftKings points. Taht doesn't sound like a guy who should be priced at $4,000 against the Texans now does it?

 

Evan Engram ($3,400) vs. PHI

This could be another shootout game, as we have two young and exciting quarterbacks doing battle. Engram has run at least 26 routes in each of his three games, with 17 targets to go along with it. That's not a crazy great ratio, and he typically doesn't pile up many yards (just 83 on 12 catches so far), but for $3,400 you have a pretty nice floor here if you're punting the position.

 

T.J. Hockenson ($4,100) vs. SEA

He is pretty dependent on the touchdown, and he's maxed out at just seven targets and 38 receiving yards so far - but Hockenson has multiple touchdown upside pretty easily here with how well the Lions are projecting out in this spot.

 

Hope this helps, good luck this week and happy weekday grinding!

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Riley Herbst

Surprisingly Outqualifies 23XI Racing Teammates at Mexico City
Cody Ware

a Very Experienced Road Racer but Still a Long Shot
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win in Mexico City
Christopher Bell

the Chalk DFS Play in Mexico City
Tyler Reddick

Has a Lot of Work To Do To Be Competitive in Mexico
AJ Allmendinger

Struggling to Find Speed in Mexico City
Chris Buescher

Says Car is "Bad Fast" Heading into Mexico City Race
Michael McDowell

Confident Heading into Viva Mexico 250
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Spencer Strider

Registers 13 Strikeouts
Hunter Brown

s Records 12 Strikeouts
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Royce Lewis

to be Placed on Injured List
Byron Buxton

Exits Early on Saturday
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Jacob Misiorowski

Expected to Make Next Start
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Charlie Morton

Continues Good Work With 10 Strikeouts
James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Isaac Paredes

Astros Hopeful Isaac Paredes Can Avoid the Injured List
Royce Lewis

Dealing With Hamstring Strain
Kodai Senga

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Gleyber Torres

Goes Deep Twice on Friday
Jonathan India

Leaves With Apparent Shoulder Injury
Evan Carter

Leaves Early With Wrist Soreness
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
A.J. Puk

Pauses Throwing Program
Matt Chapman

Can Begin Rehabbing in a Week
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Rashawn Slater

Takes Part in Minicamp
Jack Bech

Mostly Working With Second-Team Offense
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF