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Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! It's hard to believe that the regular season is over, but we now turn our attention to the NFL Playoffs. I'm back as always with my DraftKings NFL DFS lineup picks for the Wild Card Round.
Obviously, we have to adjust our DFS strategy with only six games in play for Wild Card Weekend. DraftKings is offering several game format options to its players, with multiple slates that we can choose from. Rather than try to write lots of articles focusing on individual slates, this week's Break The Slate column will highlight plays from all six Wild Card Weekend matchups in an attempt to serve as a one-stop-shop for all of your NFL DFS needs over the next few days.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Wild Card Weekend. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Wild Card Weekend DFS Picks
Dak Prescott - SF @ DAL
With Josh Allen facing New England in what's expected to be an Ice Bowl-like weather environment, Patrick Mahomes likely to take his foot off the gas against an outmatched Steelers squad, and Tom Brady dealing with winds of up to 20mph...Dak Prescott stands out as the most likely QB to truly shatter his DK price tag this weekend.
Prescott is set to square off against San Francisco in the comfort of AT&T Stadium in a matchup that carries the highest projected point total of the week (51). This season hasn't been without some hiccups for Prescott, who has battled nagging injuries and stretches of sluggish play, but he heads into the most important part of the year on an absolute tear. Over Dallas' final three games of the regular season, he has posted video-game numbers, amassing 12 TDs and 851 passing yards against no interceptions.
He'll bring that hot form into a matchup against a Niners unit that grades out solid enough statistically, but has battled injuries in the secondary throughout the year and has been susceptible to big plays as a result. San Fran has allowed 44 pass plays of 20-plus yards this season and nine plays of 40-plus yards.
Matthew Stafford - ARI @ LAR
For those of you that are tackling DraftKings' full six-game slate this weekend, Matthew Stafford's Monday night matchup against Arizona offers a unique way to construct rosters. Stafford's first season in L.A. has been uneven, but the stats don't lie - 4,886 passing yards, 8.1 yards per attempt, 41 TDs - and he finished the year ranked top-five in the NFL in most major statistical categories.
He draws a matchup against the divisional-rival Arizona Cardinals in the first round. The Cards' defense provided little resistance to Stafford in their most recent meeting - a Week 14 game in which he went for 287 yards and a pair of TDs - and has noticeably faltered down the stretch. Arizona has allowed three passing TDs in each of their last two games of the regular season.
If we take an even broader view of this matchup it profiles as one of the most desirable game environments on the Wild Card slate...it is in a dome and carries both a high projected total (50) and tight point spread (LAR -4) with two offenses that have explosive playmakers. Shootouts are tough to predict, but this game certainly has potential.
DraftKings Running Backs - Wild Card Weekend DFS Picks
Joe Mixon - LV @ CIN
Thanks to Joe Burrow's blistering finish in the regular season, it's easy to forget just how good Joe Mixon has been this year, as he posted career highs in nearly every statistical category this season. While Burrow and this elite receiving corps have garnered most of the publicity during Cincy's division-winning campaign, Mixon's role in this offense's success shouldn't go overlooked.
Due to their offensive line's pass-blocking deficiencies, the Bengals have been content to lean run-heavy at times this season (41.68% rushing rate). That was the case in their Week 11 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that allowed the third-most DraftKings points to the RB position this season. Mixon was able to take advantage of the matchup in their previous meeting, dominating the Raiders on the ground for 123 yards and two TDs on a season-high 30 carries. While history doesn't necessarily predict the future, it wouldn't be surprising to see Cincy once again lean on Mixon in this plus matchup.
Leonard Fournette - PHI @ TB
Leonard Fournette is expected to return from a stint on IR for Sunday's opening-round matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. His value to this offense was painfully obvious during his absence, as Tampa Bay's collective backfield effort was woefully underwhelming over the final three games of the regular season.
We can expect Fournette to step right back into a full workload this week. With the loss of two key receivers in Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, this Bucs' offense will likely rely heavily on the multi-dimensional Fournette in a fashion that's reminiscent of his run during last year's Super Bowl-winning postseason - a stretch in which he received a massive 85 total opportunities over Tampa's four postseason games.
His prospects for this slate are only brightened by a matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, a squad that Fournette torched for 127 total yards and two TDs when these teams met in Week 6 of the regular season and allowed the ninth-most DK points to the RB position in the NFL this year.
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Wild Card Weekend DFS Picks
Diontae Johnson - PIT @ KC
I feel as though several receivers on this Wild Card slate are no-brainer types of plays, so I won't dive into the likes of Cooper Kupp or Tyreek Hill in this week's article. Let's instead touch on a player that will carry noticeably less ownership than the top-tier of the position, but comes with a tremendous, volume-driven DFS floor...Pittsburgh's Diontae Johnson.
Few people outside of those that comprise the blindly-loyal Steelers Nation would argue that Pittsburgh is a legitimate playoff-caliber squad. They travel to Arrowhead Stadium for this week's daunting matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs as 12.5-point underdogs. Needless to say, it's not a stretch to say the Steelers will likely be playing catch-up in this one.
While Ben Roethlisberger is unquestionably washed and at the end of his Hall of Fame career, he can be counted on to pepper Pittsburgh's top receiving option with targets. Johnson has seen 10 or more targets in 12 of his 16 games this season and draws a matchup against a KC defense that grades out just 23rd in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA. While the likely quality of Johnson's targets can fairly be debated, he has managed to make the most of them this season and finished the year ranked sixth among WRs in YAC with 527.
Cedrick Wilson Jr. - SF @ DAL
With so many viable threats on this Dallas Cowboys offense, figuring out who will actually stand out is always something of a guessing game. For that reason, I'm willing to gamble on Cedrick Wilson, the Dallas pass catcher that comes in with the cheapest price tag - and lowest ownership projections - of the week.
With Michael Gallup lost to a torn ACL, Wilson will see an expanded workload in this Cowboys offense. Playing out of the slot in three-WR sets, Wilson was targeted six times in each of Dallas' last two regular-season games, converting those opportunities into a combined 11 catches for 155 yards and three TDs. While Wilson is undoubtedly the least likely of the Cowboys' WR trio to provide us with a tournament-winning type of score, he's a nice way to grab exposure to this desirable game environment, while also offering leverage in GPPs.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Wild Card Weekend DFS Picks
Rob Gronkowski - PHI @ TB
Wow...it feels like half the guys at the TE position this weekend are future Hall of Famers. Rob Gronkowski is a lock to wind up in Canton, but the 32-year-old isn't finished playing quite yet. After battling injury for the first half of the year (shocker), Gronk has been a true weapon for the Tampa Bay offense over the last couple of months. He's posted four outings of 20 or more DK points since Week 12. With Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown both out of the playoff picture, he'll undoubtedly be one of the Bucs top options throughout the postseason. Gronk has always been a favorite red-zone target for Tom Brady and he's set to square off against a Philly defense that's allowed the most TDs in the league to the TE position.
Zach Ertz - ARI @ LAR
I know the TE position is packed this weekend, but for those of you playing the full six-game slate, Zach Ertz feels criminally underpriced. Ertz looked completely out of gas during the end of his tenure with the Philadelphia Eagles, but the veteran has been rejuvenated since an in-season trade sent him to Arizona. DeAndre Hopkins' absence has led to an even bigger role for Ertz in this Cardinals offense and he's now been targeted nine or more times in each of Arizona's last four.
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