RADIO
Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Honda Classic on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Once you are done reading the article, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research. There you will be able to weigh the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Honda Classic
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
PGA National
7,140 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda
Here is the thing about PGA National (and pretty much any course inside the Florida swing that we get yearly). Water will be the undoing for many golfers, and it only takes a few poor shots to find yourself outside of the cut-line when things begin to spiral. We start to get a glimpse of that when we look at the 15 holes with water in play and 26 total hazards littered throughout the venue, but it is important to note that the major difference between what we have in front of us this week and what we saw at Riviera Country Club is the penalty behind a bad shot doesn't allow you to scramble out of the rough to salvage your score. Instead, an errant drive or approach will be water-bound, and as we all know by now, a one-shot penalty can quickly balloon your total, especially when traps are everywhere at the property and the misses start to compound on top of each other.
While the 'Bear Trap' holes of 15, 16 and 17 will garner most of the headlines for the difficulty they present, holes five, six and seven are almost equally as challenging for the field. The 26 water hazards that I mentioned previously and 107 sand traps are put into place throughout the forum to cause havoc, and golfers can begin to feel trapped by the unforgiving landmines that pop up at all turns. The cut-line has ranged between one-over and seven-over since 2007, and we have gotten nine occasions of the Friday total being four-over or higher for those that have made the weekend. Wind will be the primary decider for just how challenging the test will be for the players, but there is a steady reason why PGA National has finished inside the top-10 tracks in terms of difficulty in 12 of the past 15 seasons.
I will post my statistical weights for the week in the section below, but with 65.1% of second shots taking place from 125 yards and beyond and 11 holes presenting a 19 percent bogey or worse rate, the ability to control your mid-irons in blustery conditions will be what is most needed to find success at this brutally difficult Florida course. Water is always the great equalizer because you can't account for the harsh nature of the penalty, but we will do our best to find golfers that can salvage a score when things do begin to go wrong.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | PGA National | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 272 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 60% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 59% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 54% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.48 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Weighted Tee-To-Green (22.5%)
- Strokes Gained Total Difficult Courses (12.5%)
- Strokes Gained Total Moderate-to-Sever Wind (7.5%)
- Strokes Gained Total Short Par-70s (7.5%)
- Strokes Gained Total Fast Bermuda (Total +Putting) (10%)
- Weighted Par-Three (12.5%)
- Weighted Proximity + Bogey Avoidance (10%)
- Ball-Striking (12.5%)
- Sand Save (5%)
This week, my full breakdown of each category will be inside my 'Vegas Report' article. Don't worry, I will still post them here most of the time, but I like changing up the feel of these pieces so they don't become monotonous. You can always check out the podcast I do with my partner @StixPicks called BettorGolfPod to get a deeper dive into the course on Tuesday. Thanks for all the support everyone has shown us, and let's get into the DFS board this week.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players priced above $10,000:
**** Please note that this is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on. If you want my take on anyone, be sure to hit me up on Twitter @TeeOffSports or listen/read the content I put out from Monday to Wednesday.
- Safest Play: Sunjae Im ($11,000) - It has been 18 of 19 made cuts for Sungjae Im since the Palmetto Championship in June, and he arrives at the Honda Classic with back-to-back top-10 showings at PGA National, including a victory in 2020. Sungjae has been dialed in with his driver, gaining strokes in nine straight starts, and we typically get a boost out of him at these short Par 70 layouts on Bermuda.
- Most Upside: Daniel Berger ($10,400) -How is Daniel Berger's back after pulling out of Pebble Beach and then missing the cut at the Waste Management in his following start? It is tough to tell, but it is challenging to find much wrong with his game from a statistical perspective when we run our long-term data. Berger is the most likely winner on my model when I run this tournament from an upside perspective, and he averaged a grade of 4.1 in the nine categories I ran - a number that signifies he measured inside the top-five when combining all weights. Joaquin Niemann and Louis Oosthuizen were the next closest golfers to him at an average mark of 9.8 and 10.2, respectively. If the back feels good, Berger is a major threat.
- Favorite GPP Play: Louis Oosthuizen ($10,800) - Let's see where the ownership trends over the next few days on Louis Oosthuizen, but his combination of safety and upside might be the best we have in the field this week. Oosthuizen returned to his level of dominance with the putter in Phoenix after losing with the flat stick in four consecutive starts, and we have been getting an overall display of skills across the board from the South African after posting seven of eight rounds being positive around the green, 12 of 13 with his irons and three straight off the tee.
- Fade: None
- Most Likely Winner: Daniel Berger ($10,400) - There isn't much to separate Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen or Sungjae Im. I'll take the pure upside in Berger, but Oosthuizen is likely the safest to not burn lineups while still possessing winning upside.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Billy Horschel ($9,600) - The $9,000 section is one I will likely find myself less bullish on than most in the industry. I think we have some quality names in Tommy Fleetwood, Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry and Alex Noren, and I understand mixing them into builds, especially in cash-game type contests, but I plan on skipping some of the early popularity at this moment and trying to take on options further down the board with similar upside. With that being said, Horschel is the one option that I will find myself gravitating to most often this week.
- Most Upside: Shane Lowry ($9,400) - I don't love Shane Lowry's early ownership at over 15 percent. That is going to have to drop marginally before Thursday if I am going to get excited about using him in GPP builds, but there is a ton to like about him from a statistical perspective, including top-15 totals in weighted tee-to-green and strokes gained total at challenging courses. Lowry has the skills to dominate in the wind - evident by his Open Championship win and Irish background, and he does show as a nice value for me in cash-game contests - something this group seems to be checking the boxes on more than anything else.
- Favorite GPP Play: Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900) - I wish I had a more in-depth answer, but Tommy Fleetwood is the low-man on the totem pole when comparing his ownership to Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry. I'll take the odd man out as my preferred GPP target since all are within the same range of my model.
- Fade: Matt Jones ($9,000) - I typically find myself underweight on players that are getting a boost from a prior start or past victory at the venue. Matt Jones has both of those qualities after coming second tee-to-green last week to Joaquin Niemann, not to mention his runaway victory at PGA National last year.
- Most Likely Winner: Billy Horschel ($9,600)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Aaron Wise ($8,400) - Aaron Wise has been a coastal specialist throughout his career, and the improvement with his flat stick might be enough for him to reach the next level at PGA National. Wise has gained with his putter in five of his past six starts, and he ranks fifth overall in my weighted tee-to-green category that looks at course-specific data.
- Most Upside: Brian Harman ($8,700) - Sharp money has been pouring in early on Brian Harman, and it is easy to understand why when you look at his profile for the event. The American grades as the eighth-best upside target for the week, placing inside the top-20 on fast Bermuda, difficult courses, wind, bogey avoidance and sand save percentage.
- Favorite GPP Play: There are a ton of credible spots to pivot to depending on where the ownership flocks for the week. Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland and Russell Knox are all on the short list of names to add to Wise and Harman.
- Fade: Cameron Young ($8,600) - We get a massive increase in price on Cameron Young after his second-place showing last weekend at Riviera. I like his game and where he has been trending, but I am not convinced PGA National is the best set up for him to find success. Young is one of the big fallers for me when looking at weighted tee-to-green because of the potential removal of the driver from his arsenal, and while I think his talent will show nicely on tour in 2022, there likely will be better spots for him to find success.
- Most Likely Winner: Brian Harman ($8,700)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Sam Ryder ($7,200) - Sam Ryder opens up a ton of salary if we believe we can make a cut at $7,200, and we have to like where his game is trending with four made cuts over his last five starts.
- Most Upside: Rickie Fowler ($7,600) - There is a ton of volatility on Rickie Fowler, but the good portions of his portfolio make him worth a shot in GPP contests. Fowler has come inside the top-two at PGA National twice since 2017 and ranks third in my course-specific tee-to-green stats.
- Favorite GPP Play: C.T. Pan ($7,700) - There probably isn't a steadier climber on my model than C.T. Pan when I start to condense down the information to just the last few months. Pan posted a top-10 last weekend in California and flirted with the top of the leaderboard at this event in 2021 - posting a third-place result.
- Fade: Grayson Sigg ($7,400)
- Most Likely Winner: Chris Kirk ($7,500)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $7,000/$6,000 golfers.
Matthew NeSmith $6,900, Mark Hubbard $6,900, Ryan Armour $6,600, Satoshi Kodaira $6,600
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