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We've got a giant main slate with a dozen games starting at 1:05 pm Eastern. The Braves and Diamondbacks have a double dipper in Atlanta, so their game in this set will only go seven innings. In the grand scheme of things that may only cost us one at-bat, but we have seen ownership plummet for these seven inning games. That's a way to gain some leverage.
Rain is going to be a problem in the northeast today. I'll be shocked if Boston plays at all. I'm cutting this slate down to 11 games right now. That one is too risky for me to mess with. They can play in New York if they wait the rain out, but we have teams less willing to do that this year. There is a chance of light snow in Minneapolis. That's not going to be a good game with the cold and wind blowing in anyway. The wind is also blowing in in Wrigley and Cleveland. We do have a nice wind blowing out in Detroit and Atlanta though.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/25/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Brandon Woodruff - MIL at CHC ($9,400)
This will be Woodruff's 11th career start against the Cubs, but he only has one decision against them. Part of it is bullpen issues. Part of it was Woodruff not lasting long in starts, particularly early on in his career. The current Cubs roster is hitting a dismal .147 in 109 at-bats against Woodruff, so it's not a fluke. He has a career 2.95 ERA at Wrigley Field. With the wind blowing in, this looks like an elite spot for Woodruff with the way that he's been pitching this year. Woodruff has sparkling numbers across the board. A big reason for that is he has not allowed a ball hit on the barrel of an opponents bat yet. As you would expect, the hard hit percentage is also way down. I expect a really strong start out of Woodruff here.
Danny Duffy - KC at DET ($8,000)
Duffy has allowed just one earned run in 18 innings so far this year with 19 strikeouts. We have seen flashes of brilliance from Duffy here and there throughout his career. He has always been a highly-touted prospect, but has never really put anything together. There is some reason for optimism this year. Duffy's velocity is up across the board and there is a lot more movement on his four-seamer and curveball. And honestly, this is a dream matchup for Duffy. The Tigers are hitting a dismal .179 against southpaws this year and were completely shut down by fellow lefty Mike Minor on Friday. The Tigers are striking out an alarming 35.9% against lefties this year. Duffy may regress at some point, but it shouldn't start here.
Other Options: John Means ($8,900), Kohei Arihara ($7,000), Michael Kopech ($6,900)
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Andrew Knizner - C, STL vs. CIN ($2,200)
Predicting who catches on Sunday afternoons can be a daunting task, but the Cardinals are still without Yadier Molina and Knizner has filled in pretty well for him. The price is low despite Luis Castillo getting absolutely destroyed by the Cardinals on Opening Day, and really not looking good in a start since. Knizner homered off of Castillo in the only game that he has started against him. For this low of a price, it's worth seeing if he can do it again.
Joey Votto - 1B, CIN at STL ($4,400)
Is Votto back? The four homers in a nice touch, but the .225 average leaves something to be desired. His walk rate is also the lowest of his career. Now the good news: The hard hit percentage is by far the best of his career and a .312 xBA suggests that Votto has been a little unlucky so far this year. The launch angle, exit velocity, and hard hit percentage are all at or above his marks during his heyday. Votto is absolutely mashing fastballs this year, which is exactly where Jack Flaherty has been struggling. History is on Votto's side too. He is 6-13 in his career against Flaherty.
Adam Frazier - 2B, PIT at MN ($4,400)
Frazier is firmly entrenched atop this Pirates lineup and has been one of the few bright spots in it thus far. Matt Shoemaker has always been a junkballer, but is has caught up to him in recent years. His 6.28 ERA looks bad, but the xERA of 7.23 suggests that he should be even worse. Opponents have a staggering 17% barrel percentage against Shoemaker so far. Frazier profiles well against Shoemaker's best pitches, the sinker and splitter. The other Frazier (Todd) is the only Pirate that profiles better, but you have to have some stones to run with the Toddfather right now.
J.D. Davis - 3B, NYM vs. WAS ($3,400)
Something is off with Patrick Corbin. His strikeout rate so far is by far the lowest rate of his career. Though the 10.95 ERA is a little bloated, his xERA is still a catastrophic 7.06. If there weren't a good track record attached to Corbin, he wouldn't even be in the majors right now. It's not even a velocity issue for Corbin. His velocity is fine. Hitters just aren't chasing his pitches anymore. His fastball and slider are getting crushed right now. I'll have a few five-man Mets stacks, but they will all start with Davis. Not only does Corbin struggle with right handed power, Davis has a .462 ISO with three homers in 26 career at-bats against Corbin. He may as well be hitting off a tee.
Eugenio Suarez - SS, CIN at STL ($5,300)
Normally I wouldn't go out of my way to run hitters at guys like Luis Castillo and Jack Flaherty, but they are both off this year. Both are suffering about a 1.5 MPH loss on the fastball from last year. What's even more concerning for Flaherty is that he is missing a lot of movement on his slider and fastball. The only thing worse than throwing a pitch slower is not having it move effectively. Suarez homered off of Flaherty on Opening Day, his third off of Jack in just 15 at-bats. This is DFS, people. If we aren't chasing homers, what the hell are we even doing out here?
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Byron Buxton - OF, MN vs. PIT ($5,600)
I have been a Buxton truther since my beloved Twins drafted him and I caught a game that he played for Cedar Rapids back in 2013. His tools have never translated to major league success due to injuries and a free-swinging style that would make Kirby Puckett proud. The difference is that Kirby would swing at damn near everything, but he always made contact. That is what has eluded Buxton until now. His chase rate and K rate are far below his career numbers, even though he still doesn't walk. Buxton has an impossible 30.6 barrel percentage - the best in the majors - and is in the 100th percentile in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, xISO, and hard hit percentage. Oh, and he's facing a pitcher that has given up 12 runs in nine major league innings. This is yet another smash spot for Buxton. Ride him until he cools off.
Michael Conforto - OF, NYM vs. WAS ($4,100)
Allow me to highlight one of the less obvious pieces of my Mets stack. Yes, I realize that Corbin has handled lefties fairly well in his career. Every lefty but Michael Conforto, that is. Conforto is 9-25 with five homers, 12 RBI, and a .640 ISO. Most will be on the right handed side of this Mets stack, but Conforto may be forgotten since he's a lefty. He is one of the few that has managed to get to Corbin.
Jorge Soler - OF, KC at DET ($3,900)
Michael Fulmer throws a lot of fastballs and Soler is one of the better fastball hitters around. Just like Pedro Cerrano, straight ball he hit very much. Much like Cerrano, Soler could use some of Jobu's help with the curveball, but that's a pitch that Fulmer rarely throws anyway. Soler's ISO against Fulmer's brand of fastball is .727. The ISO on the slider and sinker are nearly .300. He's the guy that is most likely to get a hold of a Fulmer offering today, according to the metrics.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin
- Minnesota Twins vs. Wil Crowe
- Sneaky Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Luis Castillo
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