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Opening Day is finally here! The baseball season officially got underway last week in Japan but for all intents and purposes this is Opening Day for most fans. Of course that also means the return of daily fantasy baseball. The Opening Day main slate kicks off at 3pm ET with the Houston @ Tampa Bay game. There are slates for the earlier game but the picks here will be for the main slate. In addition, the late game between Boston and Seattle is not included in the man slate.
In terms of the odds on the games themselves there are no teams that are -200 favorites in any of the games on this slate. The biggest favorite is the Dodgers at -153 against the Diamondbacks. However, the lack of absolute favorites is expected given the amount of aces pitching on Opening Day.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 3/28/19. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel, and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @benrolfe15.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Blake Snell, TB (vs. HOU) - $9,400
This game has the lowest total of the slate with an over/under set at 6.5. Therefore, I really wanted to try and include one of the two pitchers in this game, and given that Verlander is priced at $11,000, Snell is my man. The concerns here with Snell are that the Astros are slight favorites in this one, and that the Astros lineup is stacked with right-handed hitters. However, despite giving up 14 of his 16 home runs to right-handed hitters last season, Snell has an impressive .224 career batting average against when facing right-handed hitters. In addition, last season Snell gave up an impressive 1.70 ERA and .170 batting average against at home. The risk that comes with Snell is baked into the price but there is a realistic pathway to Snell returning value on this price in his first outing of the season.
Kyle Freeland, COL (@ MIA) - $9,000
The second biggest favorites on this spread are the Colorado Rockies, and with them on the road in Miami it would be tough to ignore Freeland. Interestingly, Freeland actually had a worse ERA on the road last season than at home (3.23 vs. 2.40). However, it is not as if he was terrible on the road, and pitching in Miami is not the same as pitching on the road in most other places. The biggest risk here is that the Marlins could load their lineup with right-handed hitters to face the left-handed Freeland. The reason that risk is minimal is for two reasons; firstly, Freeland gave up just a .308 wOBA last season to right-handed hitters, and secondly he is pitching against a Miami team which finished last in the majors last season in runs scored and home runs. If Snell against the Astros is too risky then Freeland makes for an interesting ace on your staff.
Jose Urena, MIA (vs. COL) - $6,500
There is not a lot of value on this slate in terms of the cheaper guys, simply because there are so many aces pitching today. Therefore, if you want to go cheap you are likely going to have to compromise on strikeouts. However, if you are in a GPP format and want to mix things up then Urena is interesting. The key to the potential value here is the difference between the Rockies lineup at home and on the road. On the road in 2018 the Rockies had a team batting average of just .225, a SLG of .370 and an OPS of .665. All of the pitchers under $7,000 carry a huge amount of risk but this play is the one with the least risk.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
C - Austin Hedges, (SD @ SF) - $2,700
Picking catchers is never easy and Opening Day might be as tough as ever. However, Hedges offers an interesting return at a solid price. His ISO against left-handed pitchers is among the best for the position on the slate, and he has one of the safer floors of anyone at the catcher position.
1B - Jake Bauers, CLE (@ MIN) - $3,700
Bauers has a mixed 2018 season, but he did have some success hitting for power against right-handed pitchers. His ISO against righties in 2018 was an impressive .198 and his wOBA was a more than acceptable .327. Additionally, his opponent, Jose Berrios is allowing 1.21 HR/9 against right-handed hitters, making Bauers an interesting option at his current price.
2B - Adam Frazier, PIT (@ CIN) - $3,200
Frazier has a double whammy here of owning a good wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers and having a pitcher who struggles somewhat against left-handed hitters. Add in that he playing in a park with plenty of park factors in the hitters favour and Frazier could offer a great return on investment here.
3B - Max Muncy, LAD (vs. ARI) - $4,600
Muncy's numbers against right-handed pitching are frankly unbelievable. His ISO (.329), wRC+ (155) and wOBA (.416) are all among the best on the slate. He has both one of the highest ceilings and safest floors on the slate.
SS - Ketel Marte, ARI (@ LAD) - $3,200
If Jorge Polanco is active then he may be better the play, but if he is not then Ketel Marte is the play here. SS is not a traditionally strong position but Marte owns a .410 wOBA, .263 ISO and 152 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Yasiel Puig, CIN (vs. PIT) - $4,100
Puig will kick off his career with his new team at home against Jameson Taillon. Taillon has good numbers has against right-handed hitters but Puig's wOBA (.398), ISO (.266) and wRC+ (140) against right-handed pitchers are all impressive. With the assistance offered to hitters by the Red ballpark, Puig could be in for an impressive debut.
Corey Dickerson, PIT (@ CIN) - $3,800
Sticking with the theme of hitters playing in the Great American Ballpark we turn back to the Pirates and Dickerson. Last season was tough for Dickerson overall but he hit 12 of his 13 home runs off right-handed hitters, giving him a .353 wOBA, .194 ISO and 126 wRC+ against them. Two other interesting statistics about Dickerson are that four of his 13 home runs came in Cincinnati last season, and he has hit three home runs with a .375 batting average this spring.
Jorge Soler, KC (vs. CWS) - $3,600
Soler has been a high variance hitter in his career but his numbers against left-handed pitchers are hard to argue with. His .462 wOBA against lefties prior to his injury last season is among the best on the slate and his .333 ISO and 183 wRC+ in the same time frame are right up there as well.
