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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in the Divisional Round of the 2024-25 season? Andrew's potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for Divisional lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to our Divisional Round fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint.
As the adage goes, defense wins championships. Many top-tier defenses remain in the playoffs, creating tough matchups for our favorite DFS options.
Below are my five fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint, for the Divisional Round of the 2024-25 NFL season. Hopefully, this will help you set winning fantasy lineups this week. Good luck, RotoBallers!
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Joe Mixon (RB, HOU) at Kansas City (Saturday)
Several outstanding run defenses remain in the playoffs and each will worry fantasy managers.
We'll start with Kansas City. The Chiefs finished the regular season allowing 70.4 rushing yards per game to running backs (all opposing running backs, not just the starter). That was good for the third-fewest in the league.
Where Kansas City also shines is preventing running backs from impacting the passing game. The unit surrendered the fifth-fewest catches (61) and fourth-fewest yards (413) to running backs through the air. Zero running backs logged a receiving touchdown.
Joe Mixon saw 15 touches against the Chiefs in Week 16. The game was one of four (including the Wild Card game) in which Mixon recorded fewer than two receptions. He totaled 71 yards without a touchdown. We don't strive for eight fantasy points. Mixon is also managing an ankle injury that could slow him down.
#Texans running back Joe Mixon (ankle) not practicing at start of today's workout @KPRC2 pic.twitter.com/pDCZkAVNuM
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) January 16, 2025
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS) at Detroit (Saturday)
For a large portion of the 2024 season, the Detroit Lions were one of the more imposing rush defenses. A brief blip (five touchdowns between Josh Jacobs and James Cook in consecutive weeks) suggested the Lions may have lost some muster. With linebacker Alex Anzalone's return, Detroit is intimidating once again.
This was the first play of the 2024-2025 season for the Detroit Lions
Alex Anzalone set the TONE 🔨 #OnePride
pic.twitter.com/JM22xIsSOd— Crunch Time Sports (@officialctpod) January 3, 2025
Truth be told, rushing touchdowns were the only concern for Detroit's run defense. It allowed the second-fewest rushing yards (68.6 per game) and tied the Chiefs for the fifth-fewest receptions to the position (61).
Brian Robinson Jr.'s rushing average has been less than spectacular (to put it nicely) over the last month. His yards per carry topped 3.1 in one of the five games. Against Tampa Bay, Robinson carried the rock 10 times for 16 yards. He and Austin Ekeler almost split snaps in half.
James Cook (RB, BUF) vs. Baltimore (Sunday)
James Cook failed to log double-digit carries in three of 17 games this season. One of those instances came against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. He also caught just one pass.
The Ravens' dominant run defense has kept running backs in check all season. The Baltimore front seven held the position to 1,085 yards in the regular season (3.45 yards per carry). It also allowed just eight rushing touchdowns (well below Cook's 16 regular-season scores).
#RavensFlock MLB @roquansmith sifts through traffic to pick up the big TFL. Great LBs have the ability to wreak havoc without the help of a blitz play call. Smith did a great job following his keys and finishing on the ball. #NFLHighlights #Ravens pic.twitter.com/MSQiny9YG6
— Jalen Bates (@coachjalenbates) January 10, 2025
For the Bills to advance past Baltimore, Josh Allen's MVP candidacy must be on full display. Expect offensive coordinator Joe Brady to keep the football in the hands of his best player more often, making Cook a low-usage risk for DFS lineups.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR) at Philadelphia (Sunday)
What happened to one of the best connections in the game? Cooper Kupp was once Matthew Stafford's favorite target. Even earlier this season, Kupp picked up four games with double-digit targets (including 21 in Week 1).
Kupp hasn't even been Stafford's second-favorite receiver in the last four games. Tight end Tyler Higbee has earned 10 targets in three games (excluding Week 18 when Kupp was inactive). Kupp has caught five passes since Week 14.
Cooper Kupp’s last 5 receiving lines
1/29/0 on 1 target
1/29/0 on 3 targets
3/24/0 on 3 targets
0/0/0 on 3 targets5/92/1 on 8 targets pic.twitter.com/CKRQJcV7PD
— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) January 14, 2025
Whether Higbee (chest) is active on Sunday or not, Kupp's matchup against the Philadelphia secondary makes him a risky play. The veteran receiver plays most of his snaps from the slot. That's also where cornerback Cooper DeJean roams. The rookie ranked first in yards per reception allowed in the regular season.
Zach Ertz (TE, WAS) at Detroit (Saturday)
When Jayden Daniels needed a safe and reliable target, he turned to Zach Ertz. The veteran tight end finished the season as the TE7 and second on the Commanders in every major receiving category.
The safe option carries a little danger in the Divisional Round. Only three tight ends have scored a touchdown against the Lions (A.J. Barner, Cole Kmet, and Tucker Kraft). George Kittle and Dalton Schultz were the only ones to see more than 6o receiving yards. Kittle, Kraft, and Barner were the only three tight ends to score in double figures in PPR formats.
Ertz could be a touchdown-or-bust play at the position. Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Dallas Goedert carry less volatility and have more upside.
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