Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Waste Management Open

February 3, 2021

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Waste Management Open DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Patrick Reed took home his ninth career PGA Tour title at the Farmers Insurance Open, although it didn't come without controversy on Saturday. I don't want to get into the logistics of what happened because it isn't my spot to assert an opinion, but I will say that it is unfortunate that Reed has put himself into this situation as many times as he has throughout his career. The American is an extremely talented golfer that should be getting recognition because of his skill level, but the story has far too often become negative from his mistakes.

From an article perspective, Reed graded in as the 13th ranked golfer on my model, making him someone I had overvalued in the initial assessment on Monday night. My "Ownership vs. Model Rank" did help me to place the 10th-ranked player in the world back onto my radar for a few GPP builds, but I can't say it was a spot I found myself much over the industry going rate. All of the differential tools on my spreadsheet are valuable assets that I use to try and find value or contrarian options, and it has worked out well so far this season with three of the four winners being choices that I had higher than industry standards. As always, you can make a copy of your own model and get started on building a spreadsheet that fits your viewpoints today. Just click the link below on the "PGA DFS Rankings Wizard."

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Waste Management

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

TPC Scottsdale

7,266 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

For the first time in almost a year, fans will be permitted on the property for the Waste Management Open. Frankly, it shouldn't come as that big of a shock that this event decided to play by their own rules by allowing 5,000 spectators on the grounds, but we should at least have half of them masked up in Big Bird costumes to alleviate some of the COVID concerns.

A 7,266-yard Par 71, TPC Scottsdale is a relatively easy course by PGA Tour standards. The last four winners have ended the week -17, -17, -18 and -17, providing a pretty steady clue of what we should be expecting to get for a winning score. Four of the easiest seven holes take place coming down the stretch, with 13, 15 and 17 typically deciding the winner for the week.  Thirteen and 15 are par-fives that yield close to a 40 percent birdie rate, and the par-four 17th is the ultimate decider that plays just over 300 yards. Golfers will need to traverse water that comes into play on the left side, and both eagle and bogey are in play depending on the quality of the drive.

We don't have a condensed range this week for iron play, and anything over 125 yards could theoretically be placed into a weighable category. The rough is relatively non-existent, making extra distance a plus, and despite the water that we do get at the 17th, most other hazards at the venue can be avoided off the tee. Ball striking, par-five birdie or better percentage and par-four scoring between 450-500 yards seem like a pretty good place to start our research, but I would be careful in attaching too much weight onto Bermuda putting. These greens are overseeded with just about everything you can imagine, and some kind of generic strokes gained putting split might be a better way to evaluate the little bit of research that we do add onto the greens.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Justin Thomas at 8/1, Xander Schauffele at 10/1, Rory McIlroy at 11/1 and Webb Simpson at 14/1.

Key Stats

• Ball Striking 20%
• Par-Five BOB Percentage 20%
• Weighted OTT+Approach 17.5%
• Proximity 125+ Yards 15%
• Weighted Par-Four + Bogey Avoidance 12.5%
• Strokes Gained Around the Greens 10%
• Short Par-Four 5%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Jon Rahm ($11,200), Xander Schauffele ($11,000)

We get a pretty accurate slate by my math, as nine of the top-10 priced players on DraftKings are inside the first 10 names of my model. For reference sake, the only outlier was Ryan Palmer, who I would have replaced with Will Zalatoris (the 12th-priced player himself). That gives us a board where any of the top names are relatively good fits for the venue and makes picking and choosing a little more challenging. In reality, that probably presents us with a few different routes to consider when building lineups, but it is hard to avoid looking up top at Jon Rahm ($11,200) and Xander Schauffele ($11,000). To me, those two golfers have the safest built-in floors and still produce an elite upside that can win this event.

Justin Thomas ($10,800)

Statistically, there might not be a better fit for the venue than Justin Thomas, but there are potential red flags lurking when you dive a little deeper. "Concerning" would be the word I would use to describe an already emotional golfer that is making his first PGA Tour start since his mishap a few weeks ago, and while this apprehension would have been easily dismissed because of the COVID restrictions that have prevented fans from entering the property over the last year, I have my concerns about what happens to the American when you add patrons back into the equation at the rowdiest venue that the PGA Tour plays at yearly. Perhaps this is overthinking an otherwise perfect situation, but fans will get four days to try and fluster the 27-year-old - enough for me to question how much exposure I want to have if things go south.

Rory McIlroy ($10,600)

If nothing else, Rory McIlroy will most likely be the contrarian choice above $10,000 on DraftKings. The Irishman is making his first career start at TPC Scottsdale and continued his disappointing run at the Farmers Insurance Open last weekend - a tournament where he led the field in driving distance, strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained tee to green over the first three days (only to falter to a 16th place result). This week's venue is better suited for him to find winning upside, but the random implosions continue to haunt his chances to steady the ship for sustained success.

Webb Simpson ($10,100)

I was a big proponent last season that TPC Scottsdale was a Webb Simpson property that nobody ever discussed, and the American proved that to be the case with his first title at the venue in 10 tries. Including his triumph here in 2020, Simpson has provided seven top-20s and enters the week in magnificent form after almost taking home the Sony Open title - another course that has historically been a money-maker for him. I am not sure we get back-to-back victories in Arizona, but I wouldn't be betting against a quality result. Simpson makes a lot of sense as the first man into your cash-game build.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,800)

It has been an erratic start for Hideki Matsuyama in 2021. His putting debacle at the Tournament of Champions resulted in a last-place finish, and it hasn't exactly been smooth-sailing after his 19th-place at the Sony Open was undone by last week's 53rd in California. Matsuyama lost strokes with pretty much all facets of his game at Torrey Pines, making him someone who will be a polarizing figure in Arizona. The Japanese sensation hasn't finished outside of 16th place at TPC Scottsdale in any of his six completed starts and has found robust upside with two victories in 2016 and 2017. Yes, the price tag is incorporating past results into the fray, but the ownership projections are not following suit early in the week. Matsuyama is currently slated to be the 18th highest owned golfer - the lowest total for a player $9,400 or above. There is real GPP appeal here if you believe he can turn around his current woes.

Harris English ($9,300)

Some of the wind has been taken out of Harris English's sails recently. His victory at the Tournament of Champions has been followed by back-to-back finishes outside of the top-30, which includes a missed cut at Torrey Pines. That might be alarming for those who believe English was performing above his actual skill level over the last few months, but we are essentially talking about one faulty 79 on Thursday at the South Course for what has gone wrong. The perceived downswing will make English completely overlooked in this range, and there is a spot for us to leverage ownership on a golfer that has 15 top-25 finishes over his last 21 tournaments.

Will Zalatoris ($9,000)

We are nitpicking with salaries in this territory, but Will Zalatoris has earned the right to be a top-10 player in most fields moving forward. The 24-year-old showed his all-around game at Torrey Pines with a seventh-place result, but it was his 71 at the South Course on Friday that caught my attention. Zalatoris made a bit of history by hitting just one fairway on the day - becoming the first player since 1983 (the first year they started keeping hole-by-hole stats) to break par hitting one or fewer fairways at the venue.  The youngster should be on everyone's shortlist when talking about maiden victories in 2021, and I wouldn't put it past him getting the job done this weekend in Arizona.

Russell Henley ($8,200)

I prefer to target Russell Henley at courses where golfers aren't drawing four par-fives a day or when we can avoid the bulk of the second shots coming from outside 200 yards. We get an opportunity to split the difference this week with just three par-fives daily, which should play as a benefit for the man that has been hotter with his irons than just about anyone in the world. Henley ranks first in this field in strokes gained approach over his last 24 rounds, as well as inside the top-11 over the previous two years in par-three and par-four scoring.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Chris Kirk ($7,500)

We have some real ownership pits here once we enter the lower-priced options. A player like Corey Conners ($7,900) is a nice value to target, but I have a hard time justifying a 20% ownership rate if those numbers don't come down marginally. Assuming it stays flat, I prefer using the Canadian in cash-game builds and pivoting onto an alternative like Chris Kirk, who will still be popular himself, but gives us many of the same traits for $400 less. Kirk has provided three top-18 finishes over his past four tournaments and presents us someone that hits a ton of greens in regulation.

Brendan Steele ($7,400)

Brendan Steele's volatility removes him from any cash-game consideration for me, so we are going to have to decide if his 10% going rate is too much to stomach in GPP contests. Personally, I don't have an issue staying close to the industry consensus here, as TPC Scottsdale does suit the ball-striking and mid-iron play of the American. Steele has missed his last two cuts at the property but had generated seven straight top-26 finishes before that downswing.

Russell Knox ($7,200)

It might surprise some to see me skip over John Huh this week after making him a staple of this article for the last few months, but I do prefer Russell Knox at the same price when talking about GPP builds. I will have my fair share of exposure to Huh in cash-game lineups, but Knox's upside is just a little better for a golfer that has provided three top-16 results at the venue in five tries. In fairness, the two other finishes did end in missed cuts, but we seem to be getting a player that is clicking with all facets of his game when we remove his par-five scoring issues. That is something that has always plagued Knox, so it isn't as if a random problem has entered the mix out of nowhere. There is always some risk with Knox, but the upside is worth a shot.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,100)

We get our biggest DraftKings versus outright betting differential so far with Sebastian Munoz. The Columbian enters the week as the 26th priced golfer to win this tournament at 80/1, but the perception didn't translate to DraftKings - with the site placing him 45th in salary. Those differences aren't always the best way to gauge value, but it does add to the equation when his 80/1 price is something I consider bettable. If he is a value in the betting market, he is a massive steal at his generous $7,100 price tag on DraftKings.

Sepp Straka ($7,100), Aaron Wise ($7,100)

The unfortunate part of the pricing we have been given is that if the top of the board is more or less accurate, the bottom doesn't have as much value as usual. I find it challenging to locate many exciting choices past a certain point, but there is some merit to looking into selections like Sepp Straka and Aaron Wise. Straka burned everyone at the American Express with a missed cut, but his nine made cuts in his last 11 tournaments should heighten his perceived floor. On the other hand, Wise is going to be an all or nothing type play in GPPs, evident by his five missed cuts and five top-26 finishes over his last 10 tournaments.

Erik Van Rooyen ($7,000)

I think a lot of the poor evaluation around Erik Van Rooyen for most DFS users has stemmed from their belief that he is a golfer that dominates off the tee. Van Rooyen is no doubt long, but the brunt of his success tends to come because of his ability to use his irons to find success. Venues that are full of trouble and require fairways to be found have presented the South African some issues because of his paltry ranking of 88th in this field when it comes to driving accuracy. The wide-open nature of TPC Scottsdale should benefit the 30-year-old, and there is value for him in all markets if my belief is correct.

Doc Redman ($6,600)

Doc Redman is going to be very popular for users that are using any semblance of long-term form to do their research. There might be an opportunity here to bypass the American if we see this total hover anywhere near the 10 percent that it is currently at for the week, but Redman does make sense if we are willing to overlook his inconsistent results to begin 2021. I always lean towards opposing popularity when talking about $6,000 golfers, but the American has been one of the better ball-strikers in this field since entering the PGA Tour. An option like James Hahn $6,800 or Lucas Glover $6,700 might be routes I would look to take if shooting for pure upside.

Come Play Against Me In A One & Done Contest!

I am excited to announce that I will be teaming up with @TheSBFFC this year for their 2021 OAD contest.

- 28 Tournaments (Waste Management - BMW)

- $100 Buy-In - Pot Is Almost At $5,000 Currently

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Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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