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Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Sony Open DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.
Welcome back, RotoBallerst to my PGA DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and the Sony Open! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for this week. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!
If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Sony Open
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Waialae Country Club
7,044 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bermuda
Waialae Country Club was designed in 1925 by Seth Raynor and underwent an enhancement by Tom Doak in 2016. The improvement was meant to mimic the original layout, and Doak did an excellent job of incorporating that feel back into the course.
We get a very different venue this week when comparing Waialae to Kapalua. On paper, Kapalua was lengthy at nearly 7,600 yards, but the wide-open fairways didn’t provide much danger off the tee. Your occasional bad lie or three-putt was possible because of the hilly terrain or gargantuan putting surfaces, but Waialae is about the exact opposite with its flat, tedious setup that emphasizes par-four scoring and ball-striking.
I noticed a few things that we should be able to use in our research this week. Strokes gained off the tee, distance, accuracy and strokes gained putting were all more relevant here than a regular tour stop. Approach play and strokes gained around the green were less impactful, although approach play will always be numerically the most important trait. It is just less pertinent here. There are 12 par-fours in general; 10 of them stretch between 400-500 yards, which is why we get 12.8% more second shots that come within 125-200 yards than an average week. When we start figuring out what all of that means and how to use it, there has been a heavy correlation with the PGA Tour’s definition of ball-striking. That is a combination of distance and accuracy mixed with greens in regulation. The wind is the one proper defense of the property. We have seen as much as a three-shot difference per day in calm versus windy conditions, and the last thing worth noting was that the impact of course history was the second-highest of any track on tour. As you might expect, the only one more critical to success has been Augusta.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Waialae | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 285 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 52% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 65% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.49 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, Cameron Smith leads the way at 11/1 and is followed by Webb Simpson at 16/1, Sungjae Im at 18/1 and Hideki Matsuyama at 20/1.
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Total At Easy Courses Under 7,200 Yards (17.5%)
- Mixture of Strokes Gained Total on Bermuda + Bermuda Putting (20%)
- Weighted Par-Four Scoring (17.5%)
- Overall Birdie or Better Percentage (10%)
- Ball-Striking (25%)
- Weighted Proximity For Waialae (10%)
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
- Safest Play: Webb Simpson ($10,500) - Nobody rolls over their course history quite like Webb Simpson. The one drawback I would monitor with him this week is that he has lost with his flat stick in six of his last 12 starts, but three straight top-fours at Waialae should show his consistency when he likes a track.
- Most Upside: Cameron Smith ($11,200) - It is hard to go somewhere else, right? Last week's winner. The only golfer in this range to have won this title. There are issues with Cameron Smith's consistency with his driver, but the rough isn't so penal here that a wayward drive will be his undoing.
- Favorite GPP Play: Sungjae Im ($10,300) - Ownership is going to bite you no matter where you go, but Sungjae Im has posted four consecutive top-19 finishes on tour while averaging +2.25 shots per start with his irons.
- Fade: None - I am the lowest on Marc Leishman ($10,000) of the group, but all players rank in the top-eight of my model. It is hard to find too many irregularities.
- Most Likely Winner: Sungjae Im ($10,300)
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
- Safest Play: Corey Conners ($9,600) - You could place Corey Conners in the $10,000 section, and I would have no issues. Conners has provided back-to-back top-12 showings at the property and ranks number one in my model from a ball-striking sense.
- Most Upside: Abraham Ancer ($9,700) - There is a safety issue that might be lower than some of Abraham Ancer's counterparts because of the problems last week and questionable course history, but the statistical fit is percolating off the page.
- Favorite GPP Play: Kevin Na ($9,900) - Defending champions usually will go over-owned or under-owned the next time they play the track, and Kevin Na is beginning to fit into the second part. I think most users have no interest in paying $9,900 for his talents, but I have no real reserve with the price tag.
- Fade: Talor Gooch ($9,100) - Talor Gooch has too much historical volatility for me at this moment if the ownership is going to keep ascending. I am seeing about 20%, which is nine or 10 percent higher than I would find proper for a golfer that has gone missed cut, 63rd, missed cut over the last three trips to this track. I get he is a better golfer now than he has ever been in his career, but you can always find another way to play him if you feel inclined. A top-10 wager might be the way to go if you want exposure.
- Most Likely Winner: Corey Conners ($9,600)
$8,000 Range
- Safest Play: Charles Howell III ($8,000) - Course history savant. Charles Howell III hasn't missed a cut at Waialae in 19 attempts, providing 15 top-30s and nine top-eights during that run.
- Most Upside: Russell Henley ($8,500) - Gamers are going to have to make a decision with Russell Henley this week. The upside is there from a statistical sense, but an 11th, missed cut, 66th, missed cut and 13th is what we have gotten out of him since 2017. The floor isn't as high as some might expect, even if his makeup for the track is enticing.
- Favorite GPP Play: Billy Horschel ($8,700) - A seventh-place finish here last year for Billy Horschel, who ranks 15th at easy courses under 7,200 yards and ninth in my mixture of Bermuda scoring. Iron play is always a question mark for him, but with me taking a different route in trying to find value by mimicking the venue, he jumps over 30 spots between 125-200 yards.
- Fade: Seamus Power ($8,100) - I don't love the ownership. Maybe I am overthinking this situation, but Seamus Power has never found much success in the past at Waialae
- Most Likely Winner: Billy Horschel ($8,700)
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
- Safest Play: Joel Dahmen ($7,600) - Joel Dahmen's price tag should be in the $8,000s. Those incongruities are always worth doing a double-take, and I don’t mind eating some chalk.
- Most Upside: Si Woo Kim ($7,700) - Si Woo Kim's combination of how he plays at short courses that are easy and how he performs on Bermuda places him as one of the ten most likely winners in this field for me. There is going to be combustibility that he falters, but he does rank inside of the top-60 in every category I ran, including placing in the top-30 in five of the six.
- Favorite GPP Play: Si Woo Kim ($7,700)
- Fade: Adam Long ($7,300) - The current form has enhanced Adam Long's price tag, yet I am not sure that form is relevant having taken place a month ago.
- Most Likely Winner: Si Woo Kim ($7,700)
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:
Max Mcgreevy $6,900, Michael Thompson $6,900, Harry Higgs $6,900, Cameron Young $6,800, Hayden Buckley $6,700, Nick Hardy $6,600, Chan Kim $6,300, Andrew Novak $6,300 and Austin Smotherman $6,200
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