July 13, 2016

Andrew Bua examines the biggest contact rate risers and fallers after week 15's action in the baseball world and provides fantasy baseball owners with advice on who to add.

RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in contact rate over the last seven days. The tool can be found here. Keep in mind, any statistic being viewed in such a small sample size will never be incredibly predictive on a granular level. But if any stat can be looked at over seven days, it's contact rate which stabilizes very quickly. What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, seeing the ball better, etc. If we know who is seeing and hitting the ball better as of late, even if it’s just a seven-day period, then we at least have a start in figuring out whether you should be buying or selling on that particular player.

This particular article will focus on three contact rate risers and fallers apiece, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat them. Due to the nature of the often-refreshed contact rate tool, you may sometimes see players listed in this article who are no longer in the top % of risers/fallers (but was within the last few hours). This article will be posted on Wednesdays; if you have any questions or comments feel free to send me an email ([email protected]), tweet (@Andrew_Bua), or reach out on Reddit (/u/CitiStrikeouts)

Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium MLB Subscription for only $1.99 per week. We have all the tools to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Sleeper Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, PLUS Daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

Contact Rate Risers

Mark Reynolds (1B, COL): 74% Season Contact Rate, 91% L7 Contact Rate (+17%)

Mark Reynolds is an interesting name to show up here. He’s always struck out a ton, and isn’t a player you picture making high contact. Reynolds certainly won’t sustain a 91% contact rate, but is it a sign he’s going on a hot streak?

Reynolds has been pretty good with a .333 batting average during the last week, but the solid production isn’t necessarily because he’s making more contact lately - its because he’s been making more contact all year. His 74% season rate would be the highest of his career, as would his 12% swinging strike figure. His .361 BABIP (62 points higher than his career figure) indicates he’s been a recipient of some good luck, but he would not be the first player to have a resurgence playing at Coors Field. Between his home park and a lineup stacked with mashers, Reynolds doesn’t look to be going anywhere. Even if he cools off a bit, which he will, he’s still a good bet to produce more than he has in years. He’s worth buying in on.

Chris Iannetta (C, SEA): 77% Season Contact Rate, 94% L7 Contact Rate (+17%)

Much like Mark Reynolds, it’s intriguing to see a high strikeout player like Chris Iannetta on a list with those who are making more contact recently. His first season as a Mariner hasn’t exactly gone well, so could this mean a better second half is ahead for Iannetta?

Don’t bet on it. Increased contact is nice, but it doesn’t mean much if it doesn’t result in much. For Iannetta, it hasn’t. Despite a 17% jump in contact rate, he’s only hitting .063 during this “streak”. His .250 BABIP during this span, only .14 points lower than his career number, indicate he’s not getting overly unlucky on the balls he does hit either. For the season, his contact rate is actually nearly a career-high (.06% less than his 77.8% career-best), and his 34.3% hard hit ball rate would also be his second best figure. Despite those great peripherals the results simply haven’t been there; Iannetta isn’t a player to buy simply because he’s making more contact.

Kendrys Morales (DH, KC): 79% Season Contact Rate, 92% L7 Contact Rate (+13%)

Kendrys Morales hasn’t been having a bad season, but he also hasn’t been producing his usual figures. His .258/.322/.454 slash line isn’t too far below his .273/.331/.463 career numbers, but it’s certainly a bit lower. Are we finally seeing Morales return to form with his recent contact rate increase?

It’s definitely possible. His season contact rate and 10.3% swinging strike rate are right in line with his career marks, and his 37.8% hard hit ball rate is his highest since 2009. However, Morales’ .280 BABIP is nearly 20 points below his career rate. During the contact rate surge his BABIP is a slightly higher .286, indicating that he might be regressing to his norm. As such, it looks as though Morales might be rounding into form a bit more. A crazy hot streak might not be in store – but if you’re simply looking for Morales to be the player he’s been for a few years, he’s worth an investment.

Contact Rate Fallers

Scooter Gennett (2B, MIL), 77% Season Contact Rate, 62% L7 Contact Rate (-15%)

In his fourth Major League season, Scooter Gennett is in the midst of setting a career-best in walk rate (8.6%) and a career-worst in strikeout rate (21.9%). He’s also making the least amount of contact in his career. His overall numbers aren’t bad, but if his contact rate is falling, will that change?

Gennett may not be making as much contact, but when he does he’s hitting the ball hard (53.9%). That hasn’t produced results though, as his .133 batting average and 15.4% line drive rate the last week would tell you. The most notable pieces about this slip are his embarrassingly low 33.3% O-Contact number and high 17% swinging strike rate. Gennett is definitely not seeing the ball well right now; the All-Star break is coming at the perfect time for him. If you can sell him for real value to improve your team, it’s probably the right move.

Matt Holliday (OF, STL), 81% Season Contact Rate, 67% L7 Contact Rate (-14%)

Over the course of his 13-season Major League career, Matt Holliday has been the epitome of consistency when it comes to contact rate. With a career-low of 75.5% (2004) and a high of 82.4% (2014), his career rate is right in the middle at 79%. With a 14% decrease in contact rate lately, should owners be concerned?

There are reasons to be concerned about an aging Holliday, but contact rate isn’t one of them. He’s hitting the ball harder than ever before (40.2%), but isn’t doing anything with it. Holliday’s ground ball rate is at an all-time high (53.5%), and his line drive a disgustingly low 13.3%. He may be seeing the ball well by virtue of how often he hits it, but father time looks to have taken away his ability to do great things with it. Holliday’s contact rate will likely finish within his normal range, but that’s no reason to keep trotting him out there in your fantasy lineup. It’s time to sell.

Derek Dietrich (2B, MIA), 84% Season Contact Rate, 73% L7 Contact Rate (-11%)

Derek Dietrich may not be lighting the world on fire, but in his first full Major League season (fourth overall) he looks to be setting career-bests in several categories, contact rate included. Thus, should his owners in deeper leagues be concerned about the recent slide?

It’s possible – but Dietrich is more of a hold candidate than a sell candidate right now. During this skid, he hasn’t been hitting the ball hard (27.3%) and his ground ball rate is an absurdly high 63.6%. His BABIP is also an unsustainably high .455, meaning he’s getting very lucky since he’s not hitting the ball as much but has been productive nonetheless. His BABIP for the season is also high at .363 (career .301), but without a full season sample size it’s tough to say what his norm is. It’s entirely possible Dietrich’s slipping contact rate is cause for concern. However, without a full season of sample size to judge him against, the prudent move is likely to hold and see what happens.

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