Coaching Matters: Offensive Outliers From Week 3

September 29, 2022

Eli analyzes players who overperformed and underperformed from last week to find potential Week 3 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data for the 2022 NFL season.

This is the third week of this series where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on past coaching trends in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 3, we saw stat lines such as the Baltimore Ravens running back room combining for 13 carries, New Orleans Saints wide receiver room combining for 327 receiving yards, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back room combining for 35 rushing yards.

After these types of performances, it is important to look at each of these teams' coaches and their playcalling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

Fantasy Football Improvement Ahead?

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement and which areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. Let's dive in! These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Las Vegas Raiders Running Backs

Josh McDaniels & Mick Lombardi

The Las Vegas Raiders running back room was disappointing in Week 3, combining for 16 carries, 83 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, seven receptions, eight targets, 35 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, on the season this group has totaled 49 carries (16.33 per game), 218 rushing yards (72.67 per game), zero rushing touchdowns (zero per game), 12 receptions (four per game), 14 targets (4.67 per game), 107 receiving yards (35.67 per game), and one receiving touchdown (0.33 per game). Sunday's performance as well as the current season totals are well below the averages we've come to expect from a Josh McDaniels running back room. Based on this information, now would be a great time to buy low on Josh Jacobs if you are needing some help in your RB2 spot.

Fantasy players this impacts: Josh Jacobs, Zamir White, Brandon Bolden, and Ameer Abdullah 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs

Byron Leftwich

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back room could not get much going in Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers as they combined for 12 carries, 35 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, five receptions, six targets, 35 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. After this game, on the season the Buccaneers' running back room has totaled 65 carries (21.67 per game), 242 rushing yards (80.67 per game), zero rushing touchdowns (zero per game), 11 receptions (3.67 per game), 16 targets (5.33 per game), 61 receiving yards (20.33 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game).

Sunday was clearly a below-average game for a Byron Leftwich running back room and looking at the season totals the group is running well below Leftwich's career averages in running back targets and touchdowns. Based on this information, Leonard Fournette should be in store for some bigger games in the future and is an excellent buy-low candidate in your fantasy league(s).

Fantasy players this impacts: Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Giovani Bernard

Baltimore Ravens Running Backs

Greg Roman

In this world, nothing can be said to be certain except death, taxes, and the Baltimore Ravens running back room being featured in this article. For the third week in a row, this group lands on this list after they combined for just 13 carries, 83 rushing yards, zero rushing touchdowns, two receptions, two targets, 17 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns against the New England Patriots.

After this game, this group has totaled 42 carries (14 per game), 157 rushing yards (52.33 per game), zero rushing touchdowns (zero per game), five receptions (1.67 per game), five targets (1.67 per game), 39 receiving yards (13 per game), and zero receiving touchdowns (zero per game) on the year. J.K. Dobbins finally made his return last week and should only be getting better over the course of the season, so expect these averages to improve in the future weeks.

Fantasy players this impacts: J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Mike Davis, Kenyan Drake

Decline Ahead?

As mentioned above, this article also looks at which teams and areas are in line for a decline in future weeks. These are the areas and positions that will likely decline in the coming weeks based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

New Orleans Saints Wide Receivers

Pete Carmichael

The New Orleans Saints wide receiver room went off against the Carolina Panthers this past week, combining for 21 receptions on 29 targets for 327 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. After this game, on the season the Saints' wide receiver room has totaled 53 receptions (17.67 per game) on 78 targets (26 per game) for 722 receiving yards (240.67 per game) and four receiving touchdowns (1.33 per game). These numbers are all well above the career averages of Pete Carmichael's wide receiver room and suggest that this may be a good time to sell the Saints wide receivers if you can get a solid offer.

Fantasy players this impacts: Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Tre'Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harty

Philadelphia Eagles Wide Receivers

Nick Sirianni & Shane Steichen

The last group we'll feature on this edition of 'Coaching Matters' is the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver room. In Sunday's game against the Washington Commanders, the Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver room went off combining for 16 receptions on 26 targets for 272 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. After this game, this group has totaled 43 receptions (14.33 per game) on 63 targets (21 per game) for 666 receiving yards (222 per game) and three receiving touchdowns (one per game) on the season.

This group is currently running a little high relative to the career averages by head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, and while they should both be solid plays over the course of the rest of the season there's a good chance that A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will see some of their per game averages dip over the next few weeks.

Fantasy players this impacts: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Zach Pascal, Quez Watkins

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