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Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 Buffalo Bills to identify potential values and busts.
The Buffalo Bills were a pleasant surprise in Year Two under developing QB Josh Allen. Although they ultimately didn’t advance in the playoffs past Wild Card Weekend, the future is bright in Western New York.
The offense for Buffalo returns largely intact and with a couple of significant additions to boot. Let’s look at the entire unit from a fantasy perspective.
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Quarterback
Josh Allen is a dual-threat QB in fantasy. In 2019, he posted 288 fantasy points (PPR), 3,089 passing yards, and 20 touchdowns to nine interceptions. That was a drastic improvement from his rookie season in 2018 where he compiled 2,074 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and 12 picks. The Wyoming product also improved his yards per game from 172.8 in 2018 to 193.1 in 2019 along with his QBR from 67.9 to 85.3.
All in all, this spells improvement for the young QB. There is hope that his third NFL season results in even better numbers. From a fantasy perspective, Allen’s rushing prowess keeps him a strong fantasy asset too and it’s what makes him an appealing option.
In two seasons, Allen has 1,141 total rush yards and 17 total touchdowns. He has been averaging 40.8 rush yards per game. When looking at his pass yards and rush yards per game, it may seem modest, but both combined have resulted in stellar fantasy outputs during certain weeks. You can be assured of this type of dual-production when starting the QB.
The only concern heading into 2020 is whether the signal-caller can cut down on the picks. In his career, Allen has a 30:21 touchdown to interception ratio. For the player to truly develop as a QB and fantasy star, the picks need to decrease. When looking at accuracy, Allen had a 20.3 percent of bad throws per pass attempt and a 73.2 percent on-target throws per pass attempt rate in 2019.
The young QB remains a middling fantasy option overall, as he does have upside, but is not quite in the elite tier of fantasy QBs. He can provide value most weeks depending on the matchup but is better suited as the backup QB on your fantasy team in 2020.
Although Buffalo drafted QB Jake Fromm out of Georgia, there is no doubt Allen is the starter and only fantasy-relevant QB on the team.
Running Back
Running backs Frank Gore and Devin Singletary split the workload in 2019 for Buffalo. The aging Gore had 599 rushing yards and two touchdowns equaling 94 fantasy points (PPR). Meanwhile, the rookie Singletary had 775 yards rushing with two touchdowns equaling 147 fantasy points (PPR).
With Gore no longer on the team as of this offseason, Singletary should be the unquestioned bell-cow back on this unit for now. Aside from his total rush yards, Singletary averaged 64.6 rush yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. He also mustered 2.4 rushing yards after contact per attempt. The RB brings modest value to the receiving game as he finished with 194 yards total while averaging 6.7 receiving yards per game.
With Gore taking up 61.1 percent of the rushes inside the 5 last year, Singletary lost fantasy value because he only received 11.1 percent of carries inside the 5, decreasing his touchdown opportunities. The 22-year-old should see a lot more carries inside the 5 in 2020, which is another element contributing to his projected rise in fantasy value.
Nevertheless, one item to note is the team drafted another young buck in RB Zack Moss from Utah, which could (not 100% definite) spell some decrease in fantasy value for Singletary. Moss could receive some carries as the RB2 on the team and possibly even get more playing time if he proves himself.
At Utah, the RB was very productive, rushing for at least 1,000 yards in three of four seasons, finishing with a total of 4,067 yards while also averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He also had a college total of 38 rush touchdowns, 685 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns. 2019 was Moss’ best season, as he finished with 1,416 rush yards, six yards per rush, and 15 touchdowns.
The Bills clearly did not make a mistake drafting Moss; however, his planned usage for the season remains unknown. The best bet is that he will be a backup or split carries with Singletary. Because Singletary already has a year under his belt, he should be considered the best Bills RB to draft in redraft leagues. Moss should not merit fantasy value to begin the season, but that could obviously change as the campaign progresses in which he could be visited on the waiver wire if that time comes. Moss does bring a lot of potential in the rushing and receiving game
As the Bills’ offense continues to evolve, Singletary may aim for a 1,000-yard season in 2020. He could end up being a low-end RB1 or high RB2 to start the season and is worth picking up in redraft leagues. Just know there is a possibility of Singletary and Moss getting a similar number of touches depending on how the season plays out.
Wide Receiver
With the trade of Stefon Diggs from Minnesota, there is no doubt he is the WR1 for Josh Allen heading into 2020. Last year on the Vikings, Diggs led the team with 94/466 targets, good for 20 percent of the overall target share. He also had a 41.27 percent share of the team’s air yards in 2019, third-highest among receivers in the league. Adding on that, Diggs finished with 63 receptions, a career-high 1,130 yards (second consecutive 1,000-yard season), six touchdowns, and averaged a career-high 17.9 yards per game as fellow WR Adam Thielen dealt with a hamstring injury most of the season.
The Maryland product ended up averaging 75.3 yards per game too, a career-high. Diggs proved he could be a capable WR1 on the Vikings last year and there is no doubt he should be considered the same on the Bills. Still only 26-years-old, Diggs is entering his prime and will be a solid fantasy option this season. He should be considered a WR1 in fantasy and is a perfect fit for one of your starting receiver spots in redraft leagues.
The Bills also had two fantasy-relevant receivers last season in John Brown and Cole Beasley. Brown had 72 receptions, 1,060 yards receiving, six touchdowns, 14.7 yards per reception, and 219 fantasy points (PPR). Beasley totaled 67 receptions, 778 yards, six touchdowns, 11.6 yards per reception, and 184 fantasy points (PPR).
With Diggs now in the equation, both Brown and Beasley’s fantasy value take a hit in a big way. The worst thing for fantasy owners heading into 2020 is which of these Bills receiver to draft late. Their overall stats are rather similar and either of these two could be a factor in any game. Though Brown had more yards, their touchdown totals remained the same in 2019.
Last year, both receivers chewed up 221/513 targets (43%). Brown had 115/513 targets (22.4%) and Beasley had 106/513 targets (20.7%). It is astounding how similar both players were last season. When looking at it from a fantasy perspective, Brown is the safer option to choose because of his big-play potential and 36.14 percent share of the team’s air yards from 2019.
Diggs will naturally be cutting into both Beasley and Brown’s targets. In the overall fantasy picture, both seem like WR3s or flexes until one proves they are the true WR2 on the team as the season progresses.
Tight End
Dawson Knox led the TEs unit in Buffalo last season with 28 receptions, 388 yards, and two touchdowns. However, it’s rather tough to trust Knox from a fantasy perspective given his modest numbers and a rather small role on this offense.
Nevertheless, he was only a rookie in 2019 and could see increased playing time in 2020 as he develops a rapport with Josh Allen. But for now, he shouldn’t merit much consideration as a weekly fantasy play/reliable fantasy draft pick and neither should any other of the Bills TEs, who mustered a total of 18 receptions, 216 receiving yards, and two touchdowns total in 2019.
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