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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/5/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. James Wood, Ronald Acuna Jr., Brent Rooker, and more.
We have a big slate for Thursday's MLB games. We have some great hitting spots on today’s set of games. We have home run-friendly parks, warm weather, and the wind blowing out. We at RotoBaller have been extremely hot in this article over the past few weeks as the weather has heated up, so let's keep the trend going tonight.
I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. There are plenty of bets tonight with value, so to make a profit, we only need one of our four hitters to go deep to break even or make a profit.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, June 5, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/5/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Thursday, June 5:
- Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
- Brent Rooker, Athletics
- James Wood, Washington Nationals
- Luis Garcia Jr., Washington Nationals
Ronald Acuna Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 FanDuel/DraftKings)
When I write a home run article, it always seems like I bet a guy from the first game, and that guy always hits one. Let’s see what Acuna does. This game will be played in Atlanta at Truist Park. There is a breeze that won't affect my model, but the 81-degree temperature is a very small bump to bats. Overall, this combination of weather and park factor is hitter-neutral.
The trend I am seeing here is the amount of hard contact Brandon Pfaadt is allowing. He has a 41.2% Hard Hit this season and a 52.2% Hard Hit over his last two starts. This comes with a 1.59 HR/9 and a 47.8% FB during the same period.
Pfaadt has struggled with both sides of the plate, but right-handed bats are where I want to attack first. They have a .355 wOBA, .500 SLG, 2.0 HR/9, 39.7% FB, and a 45.2% Hard Hit against him. He has allowed five of his twelve home runs against the handiness.
Ronald Acuna is the immediate bat that jumped to mind for me, and yes, of course, after I dug in, he checks every single box.
Acuna has a .576 wOBA and a .435 ISO over his last 26 PA against right-hand pitching since his return from the IL. This comes with a .815 SLG, 1.315 OPS, and a 263 wRC+. He’s back.
There are three pitches that Pfaadt has allowed to be hit hard this season, which he often throws to right-handed hitters. His four-seamer has a .687 xSLG and two home runs. His sweeper has a .439 xSLG and three home runs, and his sinker has allowed a .498 xSLG and two home runs. Here is how Acuna profiles against Pfaadt.
- Four seamer: 11 pitches, .989 wOBA, 1.000 ISO, 1 HR, 16 LA
- Sweeper: 38 pitches, .352 wOBA, .000 ISO, 0 HR, 10 LA
- Sinker: 36 pitches, .230 wOBA, .000 ISO, 0 HR, -11 LA
Although I wish he profiled a bit better against the sinker, this is an excellent spot for Acuna. Continue our trend and stay hot in the first game of the day.
Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 FanDuel)
I am not one to ever write up a home run often when Rooker is not facing a lefty, but I love this spot for Rooker against Bailey Ober and the Twins. As I have been preaching since opening day, we need to target Sutter Health Park for home runs. It will be in the upper 80s with a slight wind blowing out this afternoon.
Ober is my target in this game. He has a 57.1% FB over his last four starts. He also has a 5.06 xFIP with a 3.09 ERA during that span. There is some negative regression coming for Ober, and what better spot than this?
Ober is a guy whom I have always liked to target with reverse splits. He has allowed a .347 wOBA, .197 ISO, and .438 SLG against righties this season. He has allowed a 43.6% FB and a 33.3% Hard Hit. His four-seamer has a .497 xSLG and allowed two home runs on it this season. His slider has a .527 xSLG and allowed two home runs as well.
Brent Rooker has been great this season against righties. He has a .318 wOBA and a .173 ISO against the split. He is red hot. Over his last 43 plate appearances against right-hand pitching, Rooker has a .548 wOBA,429 ISO, and a .829 SLG. Here is how he profiles against the mix of Ober.
- Four seamer: 16 pitches, 1.211 wOBA, 1.500 ISO, 1 HR, 30 LA
- Slider: 67 pitches, .392 wOBA, .368 ISO, 2 HRs, 24 LA
- Arm Angle: 166 pitches, .452 wOBA, .325 ISO, 3 HRs, 21 LA
Rooker is my top bet in a game that should be full of long balls.
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James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings)
Washington is a hitters’ paradise tonight. It is in the mid-to-upper 80s with the wind blowing out to dead center at 10 mph. These are elite conditions in what already is a good hitter’s park. I will be targeting Nationals tonight to leave the yard.
Colin Rea is expected to pitch the bulk relief behind Drew Pomeranz for the Cubs. He has allowed a 2.28 HR/9 and a 38.8% FB in the last thirty days. Lefties in particular have given him fits. He has allowed five home runs and has a .520 SLG against the split this season. He has a 39.3% FB and a 36.0% Hard Hit against lefties as well.
The four-seamer from Rea is getting crushed to a.484 xSLG and has allowed four home runs with 83 BBEs. If you understand what I am laying out, we are looking for a left-handed bat who hits right-hand pitching well. We want someone who, in particular, hits the four seamer and the arm angle of Rea well. The dilemma I ran into is that there are two.
James Wood has appeared in this article for RotoBaller countless times. He has a .415 wOBA and a .288 ISO against right-hand pitching this season. Over his last 40 PA, he has been even better. He has a .447 wOBA, .394 ISO, and a .697 SLG against right-hand pitching. Wood has 16 home runs this season. Let’s check out how he handles Rea.
- Four seamer: 60 pitches, .721 wOBA, .818 ISO, 3 HRs, 3 LA
- Arm Angle: 47 pitches, .658 wOBA, .636 ISO, 2 HRs, 11 LA
Wood checks every box tonight in a game environment where the ball should fly out of the park.
Luis Garcia Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings)
Luis Garcia Jr. is the other National whom I spoke about earlier, whom I couldn't pass up. Because I love this game environment for home runs, I am undoubtedly smashing both of these bets tonight.
Garcia, like Wood, has a crushed right-hand pitching in 2025. He has a .324 wOBA and a .164 ISO against the split. Over his last 39 PA, he has a .434 wOBA, .216 ISO, and a .595 SLG. Garcia has five home runs in 2025.
Luis García Jr. gets the scoring started for the @Nationals with a 110 MPH blast 🚀 pic.twitter.com/T8IgqA5ATE
— MLB (@MLB) May 29, 2025
Garcia crushes the important factors off of Rea as well, and it honestly is the most intriguing thing to me about him. Here is how he profiles against Rea.
- Four seamer: 41 pitches, .582 wOBA, .444 ISO, 1 HR, -12 LA
- Arm Angle: 40 pitches, .410 wOBA, .462 ISO, 2 HRs, 11 LA
There are too many good elements for me not to want to bet both of these guys tonight. I will parlay them together with some sportsbook single-game parlay boosts.
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