2024 Fantasy Football Best Ball Strategy: Mid-Round Sleepers, Targets, and Values

March 30, 2024

Mike Fanelli shares some of his favorite mid-round sleeper, value, and draft targets for fantasy football best ball leagues this offseason. Fantasy players should highly consider rostering these players in best ball league formats.

There are several different types of fantasy football leagues. However, the top four are redraft, dynasty, DFS, and best ball. While every form of fantasy football has its pros and cons, best ball is the fastest-growing form.

Fantasy players can draft best ball rosters on several platforms. Underdog Fantasy is my favorite. Most of their drafts are 12 teams and 20 rounds. Let’s look at some of my favorite mid-round values to draft in best ball leagues.

Players with an Underdog Fantasy ADP between Rounds 7-13 (picks 73 through 156) will be considered mid-round for this article.

Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray (ARI): ADP 85.5 | QB10

Murray has never gotten the credit he deserves from the fantasy football community. The star quarterback averaged 21.5 or more fantasy points in back-to-back years following his rookie season. Furthermore, he averaged 20 fantasy points per game in 2022 before suffering a season-ending torn ACL early in the Week 14 matchup. Last year, Murray was the QB9 on a points-per-game basis among quarterbacks with at least eight games, averaging 18.3 fantasy points per contest.

Thankfully, the quarterback won’t have that problem in 2024, as he will be more than a year removed from tearing his ACL. Murray is heading into his second season in offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s system. While Arizona lost Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore this offseason, they have a top pick in the NFL Draft, allowing them to select an elite wide receiver prospect. More importantly, Murray has averaged 6.2 fantasy points per game with his legs in his career, giving fantasy players a safe floor with the quarterback.

Jayden Daniels (LSU): ADP 130.8 | QB18

Many expect Daniels to be the second overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft by the Washington Commanders. Even if the former LSU star lands with the New England Patriots, that shouldn’t keep fantasy players from drafting him. The Heisman Trophy winner had an outstanding final college season. He had 3,811 passing yards, 40 touchdowns, and four interceptions while posting an impressive 8.4% big-time throw rate (per PFF). Furthermore, Daniels can play plays with his legs.

The LSU star’s rushing ability makes him a fantasy cheat code. Last year, fantasy players drafted Anthony Richardson over C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young because of his rushing abilities. Richardson had 654 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in his final season at Florida. By comparison, Daniels had 1,134 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns last year. Richardson averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game with his legs as a rookie despite missing time with injuries. Daniels could replicate that rushing success while being more productive in the passing game.

51 yards for the TOUCHDOWN @JayD__5 is unreal

📺 SEC Network pic.twitter.com/QqrFz7Ps61

— LSU Football (@LSUfootball) November 12, 2023

Running Backs

James Conner (ARI): ADP 81.6 | RB22

Fantasy players avoid drafting Conner because he isn’t a sexy pick. The veteran is an older running back, turning 29 in May, and plays on a below-average offense. Yet, he will be one of my favorite running backs to draft unless Arizona spends a Day 2 pick on a rookie. The veteran has been productive for fantasy players since joining the Cardinals. Conner has finished as a top-10 running back on a points-per-game basis in back-to-back seasons in half-point PPR scoring despite running behind a subpar offensive line.

While some refuse to draft the veteran because of his injury history, that is a mistake. Conner has missed four games in back-to-back years. However, the injury risk is already baked into his ADP. The veteran has been a top-20 running back every season since joining Arizona, including a top-five finish two years ago.

More importantly, Conner was one of the more dangerous running backs in 2023. His 6.3% explosive run rate ranked fifth among 41 running backs with at least 110 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data).

Zamir White (LV): ADP 103.1 | RB32

White has been a fantasy afterthought for most of his first two years in the NFL. The former Georgia star has averaged only 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 2.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his professional career. However, he is a breakout candidate despite ending last season averaging 3.9 fantasy points per game. Las Vegas lost Josh Jacobs in free agency, creating a hole at the starting running back spot. White was outstanding to end the 2023 regular season.

The young running back started the final four games last year after Jacobs suffered a quad injury. White was the RB8 during that four-week run, averaging 21 rushing attempts for 99.3 yards and 14.1 fantasy points per game. More importantly, the running back was a force on the ground. He averaged 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and 3.06 yards after contact per attempt in those four contests (per Fantasy Points Data). The addition of Alexander Mattison should have a limited impact on White’s fantasy value.

UPDATE: Alexander Mattison is signing with the Las Vegas Raiders, according to @Schultz_Report.

Mattison will provide solid depth to this backfield, but this should be the Zamir White show in 2024. https://t.co/fE8lNoll2S

— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) March 18, 2024

Chase Brown (CIN): ADP 110.1 | RB34

Cincinnati traded Joe Mixon to the Houston Texans this offseason. While it signed Zack Moss to a two-year contract, fantasy players shouldn’t anoint him as the featured guy in the backfield. Instead of selecting the veteran, fantasy players should target Brown in their best ball drafts. The former Illinois star didn’t have a role on offense as a rookie until Week 13. However, he was the RB35 in half-point PPR scoring over the final six weeks despite averaging only 8.8 touches per game.

Last year, Moss played five games without Jonathan Taylor. However, his 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt, and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Brown had a higher explosive run rate (9.1% vs. 3.1%) and yards after contact per attempt (3.09 vs. 2.29) than Moss during his five-game run as the featured guy.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson (CAR): ADP 78.6 | WR43

Unfortunately, Johnson’s production has been discouraging for fantasy players over the past few years. He had the best season of his career in 2021, with 107 receptions on 169 targets for 1,161 receiving yards, eight touchdowns, and 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, all career highs. However, that was Ben Roethlisberger’s final year with the Steelers, leaving the veteran to struggle with awful quarterback play under center. Johnson had historical bad luck with touchdowns two seasons ago, scoring zero times despite having 147 targets.

While the veteran had five receiving touchdowns in 2023, he set a career low in receptions (51). Thankfully, Johnson got sent to Carolina a few weeks ago to become Bryce Young’s go-to guy in the passing game. Last year, Adam Thielen was a top-10 wide receiver for the first several weeks. However, Johnson is a far superior route runner and separator than Thielen at this point in their careers. Unless the Panthers make a last-minute blockbuster trade for Tee Higgins, Johnson should be a WR2 option in 2024.

No surprise to true ball knowers:

Diontae Johnson has our 1st Full Green route tree of the off-season pic.twitter.com/D7qIYOlNib

— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) March 19, 2024

Mike Williams (NYJ): ADP 101.1 | WR49

The Chargers had to move on from Keenan Allen and Williams this offseason for salary-cap reasons. While Los Angeles was open to re-signing the veteran, Williams found a more appealing offer in New York. Despite tearing his ACL last year, the former Clemson star says he will be ready for the start of the 2024 season. Many have laughed at the thought of Williams playing at MetLife Stadium. Yet, I see the veteran as a bargain at his current draft price.

Injuries have hampered the veteran wide receiver during his NFL career. Yet, he missed only 13.3% of the games in his career before tearing his ACL last year. Williams has been a fantasy star in the past, ending the season as a top-10 wide receiver in 2021. More importantly, the veteran was the WR12 on a points-per-game basis last season, averaging 13.6 per contest. With defenses focused on stopping Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, Williams could have sneaky low-end WR2 value.

Darnell Mooney (ATL): ADP 155.3 | WR70

Mooney’s best year of his career was in 2021, despite playing on an awful Chicago Bears offense. He was the WR24 that season, averaging 10.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite catching passes from rookie year Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, and Nick Foles. Furthermore, Mooney had his only season with over 1,000 receiving yards (1,055) in his career in 2021. While his production regressed since his breakout year because of inconsistent quarterback play, that won’t be the case moving forward.

After struggling with Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke under center the past two seasons, the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a massive four-year deal in free agency. The veteran isn’t an elite quarterback, but is outstanding for the fantasy value of his pass-catchers. Cousins has produced multiple top-12 wide receivers in his career, including two in the same year twice (2018 and 2020). Mooney won’t be a top-20 wide receiver but should easily outperform his late 13th-round ADP.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram (JAX): ADP 77.5 | TE8

Some called Engram a bust last season as a mid-round tight end. However, the veteran was outstanding. He was the TE2 for the year, averaging 10.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former Ole Miss star became a go-to target for Trevor Lawrence, ranking second on the team in first-read target share (24.3%) and second in third-down target share (21.9%), per Fantasy Points Data. Engram also finished 12th in the NFL and first among tight ends in targets (143).

Furthermore, the veteran fell three receptions short of breaking Zach Ertz’s record for the most receptions by a tight end in a season (116). However, Engram’s role on offense could expand in 2024 after the Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley in free agency. While they signed Gabe Davis, many beat reporters predict he will replace Zay Jones, who dealt with injuries last year. Yet, fantasy players can draft the veteran as the TE8 off the board and a mid-sixth-round pick.

Most receptions by a tight end in a single season:

2018 Zach Ertz - 116
2023 Evan Engram - 114
2022 Travis Kelce - 110
2012 Jason Witten - 110

Last year's TE2 overall is currently being selected in the 7th Round, despite the departure of Calvin Ridley 👀 pic.twitter.com/7p72wBY0Nw

— Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy) March 27, 2024

Pat Freiermuth (PIT): ADP 143.6 | TE16

Freiermuth and fantasy players want to forget about last season. The veteran tight end was a popular mid-round draft pick because of his perceived low-end TE1 floor. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s passing attack was a nightmare under Kenny Pickett and former offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. Freiermuth missed five games because of injury and was a non-factor on the field. He averaged only 5.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career low. The veteran’s targets (36.1%) and receiving yards per game (43.9%) significantly dropped from 2022 to 2023.

While some believe Arthur Smith should be banned from the NFL, his hiring as the new OC is excellent news for Freiermuth. Tight ends have been productive in Smith’s system when they aren’t splitting the target volume and red-zone opportunities with Jonnu Smith. Last season, the Atlanta Falcons tight ends averaged a 31.7% overall target share and a 29.3% red-zone target share. More importantly, Freiermuth is getting the much-needed upgrade at quarterback with Russell Wilson or Justin Fields under center.

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