Aaron Rodgers: End of an Elite Fantasy Era?

January 3, 2020

The Green Bay Packers are back in the NFL playoffs, but as a new-look team, one that won't ride Aaron Rodgers like it used to. Is the Packers QB no longer an elite fantasy football passer?

The Packers are back in the NFL Playoffs for the first time in three years, and they have earned the top seed in the NFC. If we told you that was going to be the case before the season started, you would have thought they were rewarded with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs because of a terrific season from Aaron Rodgers. Along the way, he would have helped many fantasy football owners win their championships.

Well, to the disappointment of fantasy types, and maybe the surprise of Packers fans, both fantasy teams and Green Bay did not have Rodgers as the driving force behind their success this season. After two seasons in which he battled injuries, a healthy Rodgers had an Average Draft Position of third at quarterback on every prominent fantasy site. But he finished as the QB9, and in a game that did not count in most leagues in Week 17, Rodgers threw a career-high 28 incompletions. It was an inconsistent performance against the lowly Detroit Lions in a game with heavy playoff implications. According to ESPN Packers beat reporter Rob Demovsky, he also had a career-high 16 overthrows, which tied Josh Freeman for the most in a game since the stat was first tracked in 2006.

Wow, we just mentioned Rodgers with Josh Freeman in the same sentence. In the past, the only thing those two had in common was that they played in the NFL!

Fall From the Perch

The performance against Detroit was an exclamation point on what may be Rodgers’ most disappointing season yet as a passer, for both real and fantasy purposes. So the question now looms large: Can Rodgers regain elite Fantasy status in 2020? Is he still a top-shelf fantasy QB?

The answers are unlikely, and no.

Rodgers finished the 2016 season as the No. 1 QB in fantasy football, as he led the league in TD passes with 40, and had 4,428 passing yards (fourth in the NFL) and added a career-high 369 rushing yards and four TD runs. But the next two seasons were marred by injury issues. He played only seven games in 2017 and battled through a knee injury all year in 2018. The Packers missed the playoffs in both seasons and Mike McCarthy was fired as head coach.

While many fantasy owners assumed that a healthy Rodgers could regain his top form this summer, a lot of them overlooked or thought less of the fact that Matt LaFleur was now coming in as the head coach in 2019, and there could be a change in how the offense would operate. As the offensive coordinator with the Rams and Titans the previous two seasons, LaFleur’s teams finished ninth in the NFL in rushing both seasons. Meanwhile, the running game always seemed to be an afterthought under McCarthy. Eddie Lacy was the last Green Bay RB to rush for 1,000 yards in the 2014 and 2013 seasons, and no other Packers RB had rushed for 1,000 yards since 2009 in the McCarthy era.

There was also a glaring need to protect Rodgers more, as he was sacked 49 times in 2018 and 22 times in seven games in 2017. More offensive balance and an improved running game could only prevent teams from trying to tee off on Rodgers consistently as they had been in recent seasons. Without the threat of a solid running game, opponents did not have to respect the ground game and were free to come after Rodgers more often, knowing he would drop back frequently. Rodgers attempted 597 passes in 2018, the second-highest total of his career while working through a knee injury. He threw only 25 TD passes, his lowest total ever over a full season.

A New Era at Lambeau

LaFleur has struck the desired target on offensive balance this season. The Packers ranked 15^th in rushing offense and 16^th in passing. Much more notably, Aaron Jones produced a breakout season and looked like the best RB to wear a Green Bay uniform since Ahman Green. Jones rushed for 1,084 yards, a feat rarely seen in the McCarthy days. His 19 total TDs (16 rushing) were one short of the team record set by Green in 2003, and he had the most rushing scores by a Packer since 1962. He finished tied for the league lead in rushing scores and combined TDs from scrimmage.

The Packers Defense also improved, ranking ninth in points allowed, the team’s best finish since their Super Bowl season of 2010. Meanwhile, Rodgers finished with just one more TD pass than last season (26) and his 183 rushing yards were his lowest total over a full season. He had only three 300-yard games in the 16 weeks of the season, the most important stretch for fantasy purposes. From Weeks 9 through 16, he had only one game with more than one TD pass and did not throw for 250 yards from Weeks 10 through 16. Rodgers was obviously not a QB that could boost your fantasy team to victories when it counted most in 2019.

You could make a case that the receiving crew is also part of the problem for Rodgers, as we have seen both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb fade away and exit over the past few seasons. Rodgers has not been in tune with any pass-catcher other than Davante Adams during the recent transitional period at WR. But even if the Packers improve their WR corps in the offseason, the glaring fact remains that LaFleur led the team to its best record since 2011 and the No. 1 seed in the NFC without Rodgers carrying the offense.

No Going Back to The Old Pack

There is no reason to avert from the LaFleur formula that has bred instant success in his first season as a head coach, and there is no need to rely on a 36-year-old Rodgers to carry the offense the way he did during the McCarthy era. This is a new chapter in Green Bay football, where Rodgers is an integral part of the plan, rather than the clear crux of the team. Better offensive balance and an improved defense have proven to be the path to making the Packers a contender again.

For fantasy purposes, that should mean Rodgers can be a more steady and dependable QB next year. Green Bay should certainly add an impact pass-catcher during the offseason but the days of Rodgers being an elite fantasy QB are likely over. That’s just not who the Packers need him to be anymore.

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