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Taking a chance on a starting pitcher who has struggled over the past few seasons or has yet to enjoy a breakout could be risky during the fantasy baseball draft season. However, it could provide you with a significant advantage in your league.
Whether a pitcher was expected to log a new season-high in innings or finally become accustomed to the major leagues, the risk was there, but the upside was also prevalent.
The following pitchers exceeded expectations and enjoyed the best season of their careers in 2024, and are now viewed as much more valuable fantasy assets heading into the 2025 season than ever before.
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Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros
Ronel Blanco wasted little time in 2024, throwing a no-hitter in his first start on April 1 against the Blue Jays. Throughout the first half, Blanco carried an excellent 2.56 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 109 innings of work. He took a slight step back in the second half but remained a solid starter, posting a 3.24 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP.
This was his first season being deployed as a full-time starter, and as a result, he hit a career-high in innings.
In the 8th start of his career, Ronel Blanco has thrown a no-hitter! pic.twitter.com/lHxENPJ0x3
— MLB (@MLB) April 2, 2024
In 2023, Blanco made seven starts across 17 games and held a poor 4.50 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP.
In 2024, Blanco logged a career-low BB% rate (10.1) and his highest K% rate (24.6). In addition, he generated the lowest xBA and xSLG of his major league career, which is a great sign given the drastic increase in workload.
Heading into 2025, his above-average performance in most underlying metrics makes him a worthy starting pitcher to target. However, there is some inherent risk, given that he will likely take on a similar workload next summer and has yet to remain a full-time starter in consecutive seasons.
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
The former second overall pick showed flashes of immense potential at times during his first two MLB seasons but has yet to develop fully.
However, this changed in 2024 when Greene posted a career-best 2.75 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP across a career-high 150 ⅓ innings. While his ratios greatly improved compared to the 4.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP he held in 2023, Greene saw his K% drop slightly from 30.5% to 27.7%. This slight drop was likely due to the increase in innings.
Under the hood, the Notre Dame product generated a stellar 3.03 xERA and a .188 xBA, which placed him in the top 90th percentile in both statistics. These numbers were also the lowest of his career. In addition, his 32.5% hard-hit rate last summer was eight points lower than his previous career best.
The 25-year-old will be a popular pick in drafts this season. Given his high strikeout rate and much-improved control, he has a path to being an elite starting pitcher in 2025.
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves
After bouncing between the starting rotation and bullpen in Chicago for most of his career, the 30-year-old surprised many as he enjoyed his best season this past summer in Atlanta.
He logged 25 starts and held a stellar 1.99 ERA (career best) and 1.11 WHIP across 135 ⅔ innings of work. This was his first season since 2019 in which he logged at least 20+ starts. However, earlier in his career, when he was a full-time starter, Lopez held a cumulative disappointing 4.64 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.
While his underlying metrics have remained steady throughout his career, he took a significant step forward in controlling and delivering his pitches.
Is Reynaldo Lopez going to regress in 2025? Most likely. However, he's still a very good pitcher.
8/1-EOS: 31 IP, 1.74 ERA, 2.04 FIP, 1.95 xFIP, 2.04 SIERA, 0.81 WHIP, 4.3% BB, 39.% K, .180 BAA
This is still a top 30-40 SP for #FantasyBaseball moving forward. pic.twitter.com/h59sIlS4up
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) November 18, 2024
Last summer, his fastball generated a .403 xSLG, compared to the hefty .483 xSLG it carried during his previous campaign as a full-time starter in 2019. In addition, in 2024, his slider carried a solid .310 xSLG but had a much higher .405 xSLG in 2019.
His improvement in his pitches is also shown in his stellar 34-pitching run value in 2024, according to Baseball Savant, which placed him in the top 99th percentile among qualified pitchers. While he still surrendered hard contact, Lopez took significant strides in developing his pitches, which should set him up for similar success in 2025.
Tanner Houck, Boston Red Sox
Similar to Lopez, Tanner Houck bounced between the rotation and the bullpen throughout his MLB career but was finally given a full-time role in the rotation in 2024 and did not disappoint.
Across a career-high 178 ⅔ innings, the right-hander posted a solid 3.12 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, which was a stark increase compared to his previous season-high of innings (106) he logged in 2023. In 2023, he held a rough 5.01 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP.
This past summer, Houck posted an excellent 5.7% barrel rate, a full point lower than his 2023 mark. He also improved his ground-ball rate by two points and lowered his walk rate from 8.9% to 6.5%.
The driving reason behind his improvement was the development of his sweeper. Before 2024, Houck only threw a sweeper three times in his MLB career. This pitch immediately became his most used, as he threw it 41.4% of the time this past summer. This pitch generated a strong .219 xBA, .288 xwOBA, and a 30.2% whiff rate, which were his highest marks compared to his other pitches.
With this added sweeper, Houck could be set up for a strong follow-up performance in 2025.
Michael King, San Diego Padres
My final starting pitcher who enjoyed a career season in 2024 was Michael King. Over the offseason, King was shipped to the Padres in a large package that sent Juan Soto to the Bronx.
During his time with the Yankees, King operated primarily out of the bullpen but did make a handful of starts. However, in San Diego, King was placed in the rotation right from Opening Day and remained there throughout the entire summer.
As a starting pitcher, King generated a 30.3% hard-hit rate, three points lower than his career average, and a .297 xwOBA, which is also lower than his career total (.315). This hard-hit rate also placed him in the 97th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Michael King has 8 strikeouts ...
We're in the 3rd inning. pic.twitter.com/nBArwcAPny
— MLB (@MLB) May 11, 2024
In addition, the right-hander also had a 27.7% K rate, which is right in line with his career marks. This is a great sign and shows that he can still generate whiffs at a high rate over a longer sample size. Fantasy managers should draft King confidently this offseason, as he should be poised to continue his breakout in 2025.
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