RADIO
Mav's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 8/18/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back summoners, to another PLAYOFF EDITION article covering the LPL and LCK two-game slate that spans over the next two days. The LCK playoffs start off and are a single-elimination bracket. All the LCK playoff teams finished with either an 11-7 or 12-6 series record. The LCK competition was extremely close this split as every team went through its ups and downs. We have two interesting matchups to start the quarterfinals, as AF opens up against NS, teams have been trending in opposite directions in my opinion. LSB also had a stronger second half of the split, while their opponent T1 also finished strong since implementing their new roster. LNG is making me look like a fool by picking against them two straight series and face their toughest challenge yet in RNG. Both the LCK series should be slower-paced than the LPL series, as usual, so I will be looking at the RNG vs LNG series for most of my stacks. All underdogs are definitely live on this slate, so let's get into it and as a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes won't need to be addressed as teams should be running the starters that ended the split. Few players hold sub risk in the playoffs so I wouldn't be too worried. Just realize if a player is having a really bad performance, THERE IS a chance they get subbed out mid-series, assuming they have a backup that got playing time during the regular split.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM EST on Wednesday, August 14th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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WEDS 8/18 @ 4:00 AM AF (+139) vs. NS (-169)
This is the first LCK playoff matchup of the two-day slate and shouldn't be a really high kill total series. AF had the stronger second half of the split than NS, and looking at the strength of schedule, AF had more wins against playoff teams than NS had. NS really slowed down the pace and aggression in the second half, and AF is still a bottom team in terms of CKPM as well. These teams each won a series in the head to head.This series will mostly be trading objectives across the map, making counterplays on opposite sides, and playing split push compositions that will only look to group around big team fight scenarios. Looking at the most key matchup in this series though, I would look at the Jungle and ADC positions. These teams match up well in every role, but the jungler for each squad is who generates early action, with the ADC's being great late-game insurance carries. Peanut and Deokdam were voted All-LCK first team, along with Kiin on the side of AF(Showmaker and Keria are the other two if you were wondering.) That said I still think as a whole, NS has the better top side of the map, and the better team overall. It's close matchups in every role that can truly go either way with an early snowball. Leo in particular has caught my eye in the second half of the split. We know AF can play through the top side of the map, but the bottom side has been a question for a while now. Leo is a stud and has died less and killed more in the second half, and can certainly match Deokdam's carry potential. Mid-lane I give the edge to Gori, who has massively helped NS improve this split.
Individually, there is no doubt I think AF can match NS. But when it comes to the mid and late-game TEAM decision-making and execution, that is where AF falters and NS shines. However, AF has a clear advantage in the early game and is a top-three team in LCK in EGR, while NS sits in the bottom half. This is where AF will most likely look to find their advantage, drafting for mostly early game strength as well. I think this series goes five games, and can truly go either way, but I trust NS slightly more in a best of five series. I see NS looking to minimize their losses in the early stages of the game, and wait for their mid to late game scaling to kick in, as well as looking to play the map smarter than AF. NS win this series 3-2, but I will have some exposure to AF as well.
Top NS plays: Gori, Peanut, Deokdam
Top AF plays: Kiin, Leo, Dread
THURS 8/19 @ 4:00 AM LSB (+130) vs. T1 (-158)
The second LCK matchup is probably my favorite fade of the day, considering which side I will be on. T1 is favored in a matchup that they lost BOTH times in the regular season. T1 is also the slowest team in terms of CKPM in losses. These teams match up similarly as well. Both have had consistent carry performances from their top laners this split, while LSB has had the more consistent ADC on the opposite side of the map. Both supports match up really well and are arguably both top three supports in the league. The key matchup is the mid/jungle matchup, which I expect to be flexible in the draft and focused on playing on the sides of the map. Faker is much more focused on playing the side lanes and pressuring the map, and FATE usually does the same. Both junglers can play carries in this meta and prefer to gank the side lanes as well. Effort faces his old team and has the most support player of the game awards this split.
T1 Canna has been a consistent threat to his opposition this split and is a pivotal key to T1's success this split. That said, LSB has come a long way since Spring in my opinion, with rookie Croco improving massively, along with the team playing extremely well around Summit, who will have his hands full in the matchup tomorrow. Summit has also improved greatly and is playing more reserved and logically than times in his past. These are the top two early game teams in the league, and both supports look to roam early as well. It's a tough call, but I am siding with LSB in this matchup to win 3-1. I can also see this series going five games, but the early game from T1 in the second half of the split didn't inspire me. I am predicting LSB to reach the finals of the LCK, dominating the bottom side of the map in this series, as I think Summit will play weak side for a majority of this series, allowing Croco and Prince to generate leads and carry LSB to victory hopefully. I can also see a lot of resources and teleports being used top to dive Canna over and over, in hopes of setting him behind on his carry champs. However, I think LSB plays around the bot side this series, like in their regular-season meetings. LSB is the cheapest stack on the board and is my favorite value on the slate. If you think this series goes five games like the first one, or both series go 3-1, then I would prioritize my stacks from the other LCK match, as this would be my favorite FADE on the slate. However, I will be rostering LSB in hopes of the GNP bonus for a game, and hoping for a five-game series in the NS matchup.
Top LSB plays: Prince, Croco, Summit, Effort, FATE
Top T1 plays(if you roster them); Canna, Keria, Gumayusi
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LPL PLAYOFF Match
THURS 8/18 @ 5:00 AM LNG (+195) vs. RNG (-244)
I am dreading trying to predict this match outcome, as the winner is into the double-elimination bracket portion of the playoffs. RNG has yet to play in this playoffs, while LNG has all the momentum after taking down SN and TES, in hopes of finishing top four this split and grabbing a spot at worlds. RNG should be more than motivated for this one, however, as LNG swept RNG in the regular season. It was RNG's second match back after winning MSI, so the hangover + quarantine and lack of patch knowledge/practice time on the patch was truly a factor in RNG's loss. That series featured a lot of action centered around the bot lane, and Wei is the one that popped out to me in terms of performance, having arguably his worst performance of the split. There were multiple teleport team fights in bot lane during the laning phase, and multiple fights at dragons as well. I expect the same this time around.
Again, I want most of my primary stacks from this series. RNG is the biggest favorite on the slate and it scares me to pick against LNG at this point. Tarzan has been playing out of his mind this split and is earning his contract money, and with the help of Icon's more supportive playstyle, I give the edge on mid/jungle to LNG. However in the side lanes, give me Xiaohu and Gala in this best of five. Ming is also arguably the best support in the league and might look to roam more this series and play second jungler with Wei. I expect Xiaohu to play weak-side most of this series, but it's also possible they look to shut down Ale multiple times over the series. It's definitely possible that LNG comes out on top, but I like how sharp Wei has looked ever since that series loss and how impactful he has been for his team, right up there with Tarzan for best jungler in the league. LNG isn't super bloody in losses, but there is a boost when playing RNG, as team fighting them at most objectives is a good way to slow down RNG's dominance on the map. LNG is also a great team fighting team and can match RNG through all stages of the game.
I will have exposure to both sides in this one but give me RNG to come out on top 3-1. I think RNG has seen enough LNG in these playoffs to have something planned to shut down Light and Tarzan from taking the games over. Ale is a capable carry and shouldn't be ignored in the draft either, but Xiaohu has been exceptional at having an impact even when behind. I think RNG definitely focuses on the bottom side of the map in this series, and Cryin steps up in a huge way to push RNG through to the double-elimination bracket. However, if Cryin doesn't have solid performances on his mages and/or Renekton flex pick, then it could be a long series for RNG, as LNG has plenty of combinations to pull out in the draft and can carry from every lane as well. Icon isn't afraid to draft some less played champions. I will have some exposure to LNG as well, them being my second favorite value/underdog on the slate.
Top RNG plays: Wei, Cryin, Gala, Ming, Xiaohu
Top LNG plays: Light, Tarzan, Ale, Icon, Iwandy
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order tomorrow: LSB 3-1, RNG 3-1, NS 3-2 (I rank these based on confidence, GPP upside, and ownership leverage all weighed in) I am not sure how much ownership LNG will draw, but I'm hoping people would rather pay up for NS than RNG, considering recently how well LNG has looked. RNG as the biggest favorites and most expensive stack doesn't concern me too much on this slate, as I think LNG could be more popular than both LCK underdogs.
- I think LSB is the best dog and value on the slate, and I will have little exposure to LNG and AF as well. You had a good run LNG, see ya next split. (third time's a charm?? meaning fade me and stack LNG) Good luck tomorrow!
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