RADIO
Mav's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL on 8/12/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back summoners, to a PLAYOFF EDITION article covering the LPL two-game slate that spans over the next two days. The playoffs have finally arrived and the bracket is right here https://lol.fandom.com/wiki/LPL/2021_Season/Summer_Playoffs. It's shaping up to be a pretty intense bracket, as some popular teams won't reach the double-elimination stage. Out of the two matchups on this slate, there is definitely one that I think you should be targeting over the other for full stacks. Let's get into it and as a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes won't need to be addressed as teams should be running the starters that ended the split. Few players hold sub risk in the playoffs so I wouldn't be too worried. Just realize if a player is having a really bad performance, THERE IS a chance they get subbed out mid-series, assuming they have a backup that got playing time during the regular split.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 5:00 AM EST on Thursday, August 12th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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THU 8/12 @ 5:00 AM SN (-301) vs. LNG (+213)
This is the first LPL playoff matchup with SN (ninth seed) facing off against LNG (eighth) in a matchup where these terms profile similarly. Strong AD carries, also strong top lane carries, with junglers that play for their lanes and mid laners that usually do the same but can also put on the carry pants need be. About three weeks ago when these two faced off, SN won 2-1, as they usually struggle to sweep due to their side selection bias. SN grabbed 16 of their 24 wins on the blue side this split, while LNG also won mostly on the blue side. Suning's series win didn't feature Light and Iwandy playing, however, so the matchup may see more action around the bot side this time around.
This series will revolve around the power picks on the blue side, most of these picks being relevant on the top side of the map, so I predict a top-focused series again. When SN won earlier this split, SoFm and Bin were the catalysts in the wins, along with Angel and ON roaming to support. Huanfeng was not really even needed in their first win but was more involved in the second win of the series. LNG stole a game through their late-game scaling composition around the bot side. We also saw SoFm bust out the Zac and Kha'Zix in that series, so I expect some interesting jungle picks in the draft once again in this series. Teams will prepare to target the most common draft strategies of their opponents, especially since playoffs are best of 5, so I definitely expect Tarzan, Icon, SoFm, and even Angel to pull out something slightly different in this series than what we are used to seeing recently.
Suning holds a DRG% advantage and vision advantage while both teams are dead even in FT% and FB%. LNG holds the advantage in JNG% and BN%. This match is most likely not going to be as bloody and up-tempo as the OMG vs WE series. Neither team is willing to constantly fight their way back into a game if they're behind and will look to trade objectives and find any advantage possible on the map, rather than just run at the enemy. This is reflected in the CKPM where both teams hold under a 0.80.
Give me SN to win this series 3-1. I am confident in this match as SN is peaking at the right time later in the split, while LNG has certainly regressed since their blazing hot start to the summer. Just like the last split, I feel like LNG doesn't have an identity, and relies too heavily on Tarzan to snowball through one of the side lanes, as Icon rarely seems to be the primary carry. That doesn't bode well for LNG, as SN has the superior side lanes. LNG definitely needs to get ahead EARLY for any chance at winning this series, as I believe SN has the advantage from an even or ahead gold standpoint in the game. SN has the advantage in every role in my opinion, excluding Tarzan over SoFm. That can be mitigated though, as SoFm can play the surprise champs that can throw a team off. Bin will have a solid matchup vs Ale, but I expect Angel and SoFm to give him the resources needed to find an advantage, in the draft as well. Huanfeng is the most expensive SN member but shouldn't be the one most heavily involved in SN victories. I prefer Angel, Bin, and SoFm at CAPTAIN, however, I will be limiting this game to the SN team slot and probably a two-man small stack. I'll be focusing on the top side of the map, with Bin and Angel being my top picks but mixing in some SoFm in there as well. I'll be looking at my full stacks from the other match on Friday.
Top SN plays: Bin, Angel, SofM, TEAM
FRI 8/13 @ 5:00 AM OMG (+199) vs. WE (-249)
For the second LPL series, we have OMG (tenth seed) squaring off against Team WE (seventh seed) in a rematch from a month ago where OMG won 2-1! If you recall, WE stomped game one with a Beishang + Breathe carry, lost game two by experimenting with Breathe on Dr. Mundo, and threw game three after holding a 10K(!!!) gold lead after an amazing early start. This series is projected to be closer than the first series, but I truly think WE have a higher chance of sweeping OMG than SN does vs LNG. I just think the matchup is good for WE here, as Breathe has a clear and dominant advantage over New, as we saw in the first series, and the bot lane for WE can neutralize OMG's biggest strength, their bot lane. Elk and Missing have been playing their strongest league arguably to end the split and hope to avenge the rough series they had when they lost this series a month ago. Elk and Missing were caught out of position and playing far too overconfident multiple times in that series, and the same can be said for the rest of Team WE. WE have the better players in every role, but OMG isn't that far behind in terms of potential once you look past New.
This is the series to target for big stacks, as there will be bloodshed starting from level one. In their earlier series, the team that won each game had at least 20 kills. Both teams aren't afraid to look for picks and fights to find an avenue back into the game and will contest most objectives if their team compositions allow. WE hold a whopping 77% FT rate, to OMG's 29%. A lot of the time it's WE granting Breathe resources in the top lane, along with the first tower, and then moving around with him to contest turrets and dragons, hopefully looking for a team fight. OMG is more of a team fighting team as well and has a balanced KP% all around the squad, with Able holding the highest KS% on the entire slate at a whopping 36%. Creme received rookie of the split and honestly has the best matchup vs Shanks tomorrow on the side of OMG. Creme excels at melee assassins and bruisers, so potentially WE target him in the draft. I think this series revolves around the bot side heavier than the first series. Fights may break out all over the map too, whenever and wherever like Shakira in Suerte.
I'm backing WE to win 3-1 or even sweep here. I'll respect OMG enough to think they steal a game on the red side, as Creme and Aki are a respectable mid/jungle duo that can snowball and transfer their leads to other lanes as well, usually Able. However, over a five-game series, WE's ability to carry through anywhere on the map and their decisiveness over the second half of the split will lead them to a victory here. Elk and Missing have picked up their play, while Beishang and Breathe are absolutely thriving in this meta and should continue to do so. Breathe is arguably the best top lane in the world and might be my favorite CAPTAIN play tomorrow. The dude got ROBBED of first-team LPL and I'm not the only one who believes this. OMG had a decent run this split but aren't on WE's level just yet. I consider OMG the best bottom-tier team and WE a top middle-tier team and even championship contenders(contenders ok.) That obviously doesn't mean OMG can't win tomorrow, but seeing them best WE three games total? I just don't see it considering both team's current form. CAPTAINS I like the most to pair with SN on this slate are Breathe and Beishang. It's pretty hard to afford both favorites with a MID CAPTAIN, so you have to play a value captain or an enemy one-off in a five-game series, assuming you think either series goes five. Give me all the WE for my main stacks tomorrow in the bloodier 3-1 victory. OMG is my favorite underdog on the slate if you do get to them, so here are my OMG plays too. I would recommend playing a WE one-off even if they lose a best of five vs OMG, as the kill upsides are much higher and a game stack lineup could also outscore the SN vs LNG series, assuming that one goes five games too. Game stacking on these smaller two-game slates where you think both outcomes are the same (I.e. both series go five games) is a great way to rocket past a large portion of the field and is worth a look if entering multiple lineups in deep GPP's.
Top WE plays, ALL in order: Breathe, Beishang, Elk, Missing, Shanks
Top OMG plays: Creme, Able, Aki, Cold
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Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order tomorrow: WE 3-1, SN 3-1 (I rank these based on confidence, GPP upside, and ownership leverage all weighed in) I expect more full stacks to come with a Suning Captain, as they are cheaper, so I'll be over the field on Breathe and Beishang at Captain.
- Game stacking on two-game slates is certainly viable if you think both series end with the same result, allowing you to leverage yourself by playing the players in the bloodier series. SN vs LNG has a real chance of snoozing for DFS purposes, but if LNG flashes a bit of that early split aggression, SN could pay off.
- I think OMG is the best dog and value on the slate, and I won't have ANY exposure to LNG. You had a good run LNG, see ya next split. THE PLAYOFFS ARE HERE BABY!! Good luck tomorrow!
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