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Welcome back summoners, to another LOL breakdown article featuring four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. LPL regular season ends tomorrow and LCK has one more weekend after this before we get to playoffs. We went three of four with predictions tomorrow, so hopefully, this slate can win us some green once more. The regular season is wrapping up in most major regions if not already, so standings implications may or may not matter at this point. In the LCK, teams are still fighting for playoff seeding pretty much top to bottom. Over in the LPL, WE can boost themselves up to fourth if they sweep TES tomorrow, while FPX and EDG are battling for first place. Let's get into it and as a side note, I exclusively play on DraftKings. For FanDuel players, I would recommend building around the game theories that will be discussed.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too, and I retweet those starting lineups as early as available(usually at least 12 hours before the matches.)
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM EST on Sunday, August 8th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVPickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: DK (-202) vs. GEN (+164)
This is the first LCK matchup of the day so lineups should be out. DK swept in the first meeting a month ago, and this is a pretty decisive match to determine who will probably end up third or fourth seed. DK hasn't played any top-tier competition these past few series, they have beat BRO, KT, and DRX in their last four series with the one loss coming to AF(who also beat GEN recently AND NS this morning.) I don't expect them to be intimidated in draft for this one, especially since GEN has lost three of their last four series, with all those losses coming to playoff teams. My biggest concern for rostering either side on this slate is the pace. I'm more confident in T1 playing more aggressively vs a lower-tier team than I am in one of these squads looking to fight consistently. DK has picked up the aggression recently, but GEN is a team that doesn't like to fight much from behind, which limits their opponent's DFS ceiling. GEN has been on a slide recently and will throw everything they have at DK to hopefully stay ahead in the third-place race.
I think DK wins this match 2-1, as GEN looks to be struggling with draft and early game compositions recently, although perhaps Rascal subs back in tomorrow for Burdol, which bodes well for GEN's chances in this series in my opinion. DK is definitely the hotter team right now and might go overlooked as a primary stack since the LPL matches are more appealing. However, I'll be fading this match for the most part, and grabbing small stacks only.
Top DK plays: FADE, Canyon, Showmaker, Khan
6:00 AM: DRX (+526) vs. T1 (-774)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. Straightforward and to the point in this one, as T1 should sweep 2-0 here. T1 swept in this first matchup in a pretty slow-paced match. We saw LSB drop the ball vs BRO yesterday and drop a game, but DRX is even worse off than BRO. T1 has won four of their past five series and this roster is starting to mesh together. T1 hasn't swept an opponent since they swept KT five matches ago, so I like them in this spot to grab a 2-0 and improve their game differential score, hoping to climb further up the standings. Another usual concern for this LCK match, however, is the pace. I think T1 has the best chances at a sweep on the slate, so if the other series go three games and T1 sweeps and puts up solid scores, I can see a world where they end up optimal and at pretty low ownership, since they are the most expensive stack on the board. This makes T1 a great GPP stack and I will be over the field on four-man T1 stacks,with Gumayusi, Oner, and even Canna being my top CAPTAIN options. T1 should gain a boost in pace in this match, as I don't see why they won't match DRX's aggression this time around with both rosters being more aggressive since their first meeting. I really like T1 paired with an LPL underdog tomorrow.
Top T1 plays, ALL in order: Oner, Gumayusi, Canna, Keria, Faker
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: TES (-159) vs. WE (+131)
We have two banger matchups over in the LPL, starting with two of the public's favorite teams. On the top side of the map, I give the edge to Team WE, with MID advantage going heavily to TES. I'd say these bot lanes are just about even. I expect bloodshed and aggression in this one, more so than in the other LPL match. Getting a piece from this match seems optimal to me, even if it goes three games. TES have won three of their last six series, while WE have six of their past seven. Both teams can move up the standings with a win here, so there will be purpose in their gameplay.
Looking at this from a slate perspective, I think WE will come in higher owned than EDG as an LPL underdog. They seem to have the better form recently and took a game off RNG. However these matches are too close for me to pick favorites in both matches, so give me TES to win 2-1 in a close and bloody series. Every TES slate seems like the same story, with Knight being the insane carry time and time again. Jackeylove has to step up in a matchup vs a bot-lane-centric team, as he only grabbed five kills in TES's last sweep vs OMG, another bot-lane-centric team. I think Karsa and Knight may attempt to play around 369 so he doesn't fall too far behind, but in the end, I think they rely on Knight once again to cultivate leads and snowball through them. Knight has the best matchup against Shanks tomorrow so he is my favorite CAPTAIN play, followed by Jackeylove. Karsa is good at tracking the enemy jungler, allowing his solo laners to play aggressively. Seems like this is a good matchup for TES, at potentially lower ownership than the underdogs, except for Knight, since both teams are somewhat affordable on DK.
Top TES plays: Knight, Jackeylove, Karsa, Zhuo, 369
7:00 AM: EDG (+127) vs. FPX (-154)
The last match of the day features the two best teams in the LPL, statistically. Another close matchup where I'm simply looking to leverage against the field by playing the lower owned team in a coin flip matchup essentially. EDG listed as underdogs a few weeks ago would've surprised many, but FPX is flaming this time around, peaking at just the right time before playoffs. The key matchup for me in this one is the top and jungle, as FPX has slight mid-lane advantage while EDG has a bot lane 2v2 advantage. Top and jungle will be the pivotal matchups here, in draft and in-game. Flandre is a consistent top lane but is considered the weakest point of the roster. Not that he is a weak laner at all, but the resources mainly go to Viper and Scout. In this series, however, I expect heavy action in the side lanes, cross-map dives, and objective trades, with less team fight focus than the other LPL match. So, I think the TES vs WE match will shed more blood, but I can also see this match being optimal if both teams decide they just want to fight fire with fire, which again is very possible. FPX has won their last seven series in a row, while EDG has won five of their past seven.
FPX looks like the better team this time around, but I'll take my chances on EDG here as they are downright disrespectfully cheap, some of the EDG members being the cheapest they've been all split long. I expect DoinB to show up for FPX like he has all split, but Viper and Flandre will be the playmakers and difference makers in this match, with JieJie being involved in the early action. I'll be loading up on EDG and T1 in hopes of double sweeps from these guys and the other series not scoring as optimal in three games.
EDG win 2-0 in another close, back and forth bloody series. EDG has the higher stack upside in this matchup as well, as FPX is not afraid to fight from behind, but EDG will typically be more reserved with their engages when behind. CAPTAIN plays from EDG, Viper, JieJie, then Scout.
Top EDG plays, ALL EDG ALL DAY: Viper, JieJie, Meiko, Scout, Flandre
Summary
- TLDR: My favorite primary stacks/picks in order (I rank these based on confidence, GPP upside, and ownership leverage all weighed in) tomorrow: EDG 2-0, T1 2-o, TES 2-1, DK 2-1. Loading up on T1 scares me, but most of the field will avoid the LCK stacks as usual. I like T1 at pretty low ownership.
- Plenty of value with the underdogs to pair with multiple favorites with upside on this slate, so a great multi-entry day. Three matches today could really go either way, with T1 being my only confident pick tomorrow haha nervous chuckle. I expect ownership to be spread across the favorites so it's a great slate to gain some leverage.
- I think EDG is the best dog and value on the slate, followed by WE and then GEN, but I won't have much exposure to GEN. It should be a fun one so good luck tomorrow!
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