RADIO
Sometimes fantasy GMs focus too much on raw, counting stats for running backs. How many yards did they rush for? How many touchdowns did they score? Perhaps, taking it one step further, they end up looking at some "manufactured" numbers such as yards per carry, yards after contact, etc... But there is something more that correlates to running back performance that is often overlooked: the strength of the offensive line they play under.
It is definitely hard to assess how much impact any OL has on running back performance on a play-by-play basis, but at the end of the year, it's easy to look at season-long data and make a strong correlation between the strength of offensive lines and the production that comes from the backfield. While quarterbacks and wide receivers are also affected by how good the OL that protects them or gives them time to work their routes is, the biggest impact any good or bad OL causes is on running backs.
Today, I will hand you a few atrocious OLs (as ranked by PFF) and the rushers that will suffer from playing under them. Let's get to it!
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Worst Offensive Line Situations
PFF No. 29 OL - Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris, Benny Snell Jr., Anthony McFarland Jr.
First things first: this should have been a little three-paragraph blurb about the Carolina Panthers, who experienced the biggest drop in the OL ranks, going from 18th to 31st entering 2021. The problem I found there, though, is that Christian McCaffrey doesn't care at all about his offensive lines and that Carolina has no other viable option at RB2 after Mike Davis left the team this offseason, so he's going to eat no matter what is in front of him.
Moving on to Pitt, though, things might be a little bit murkier. The Steelers had a meh OL last season already, ranking 17th when all was said and done. They now have the 29th-best (fourth-worst, that is) and that means they had the second-biggest drop from last season to this one. Uh oh. Pittsburgh is bringing three new starters to the fold, and although the Steelers have an impeccable record of OL-building, the questions abound.
That can turn into a nightmare for rookie RB Najee Harris. Sure, he's getting drafted as high as it gets in fantasy drafts, pretty much as he was in the real-life version of them, but it might take a little extra juice from the rusher to put up huge numbers playing behind a middling line. Harris should be the clear go-to rusher of the squad, but we'll see how he performs under the pressure of both the pro game and an expected error-prone OL this season. And the same goes for veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger, who I'm not so sure is at a point in his career where he would be happy enduring the physical impact of playing along with such a bad OL in 2021.
PFF No. 30 OL - Miami Dolphins
Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown, Salvon Ahmed
The Dolphins' OL is not great, but they hope it will get there someday. If this line ranks so low, it is mostly because of its lack of experience. The Fins' line is expected to feature three sophomores, and Miami is basically betting on all of their biggie boys to step up and keep improving their games while going through the growing pains. That's why they ranked 32nd in 2019, just a tad better 28th by the end of 2020, and now are in the middle of those two places sitting in 30th place.
If there has been a hyped player at the running back position this offseason--after doing nothing himself--that must have been Myles Gaskin. The RB, entering his third year as a pro, had to fight all of Matt Breida, Patrick Laird, Lynn Bowden Jr., and Salvon Ahmed through the 2020 season to reach his team-leading 189 opportunities. The Dolphins opted not to bolster the backfield during the past few months of free agency or through the draft to great extents (only Malcolm Brown arrived, albeit on an expected small role) and Gaskin will be the go-to RB with Ahmed and Brown alternating opportunities here and there.
Are we sure Gaskin will be worth the price (ADP of RB23) in a loaded offense that will have at least four fantasy-relevant pass catchers (WRs Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, and TE Mike Gesicki)... and a rushing QB? Oh, and a bottom-three OL on top of that? I'm just not buying this thing, and I see no real reason for being so high on Gaskin/Miami's backfield.
PFF No. 27 OL - Chicago Bears
David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Damien Williams
The Bears will be featuring a fresh quarterback in the 2021 campaign. Whether that is veteran Andy Dalton in his 11th year as a pro or rookie Justin Fields, we have yet to know. The expected outcome is that the freshman will be the one finishing the season as the team's starter with Dalton hitting the bench sooner (we hope soonest) or later, but in any case, none of them will have it easy given Chicago's OL downgrade from last season (20th) to the start of the 2021 campaign (27th).
While not an excellent unit a year ago, the Bears' OL still ranked close to the middle of the pack last season. Now, not so much. The seven-spot downgrade to the 27th position in PFF ranks is steep and the fifth-largest among all NFL squads--it's also the third-largest among now bottom-six OL-teams for the 2021 season. RB David Montgomery didn't seem to be affected that much by a middling OL last year when he played the tailback position for the Bears and put his name up in the fourth-highest RB spot, finishing the season with 264.8 PPR points for a 17.7 FPPG average over 15 games played in 2020.
Montgomery, although some regression is expected from him, was the absolute no. 1 guy of Chicago's backfield (315 opportunities compared to Tarik Cohen's second-most 23!) and should retain that role in 2021. Dalton won't rush the ball, but Justin Fields is expected to. Whether the outcomes are positive, though, we'll see, as the OL won't make things easy for him nor Montgomery to reach his 2020 levels of play in back-to-back seasons. I'd advise fading all Bears at the RB position other than Montgomery, though you should tame your expectations a bit when it comes to his upside in 2021, and count on a more realistic top-12-to-16 finish more than another top-five year coming from him.
PFF No. 19 OL - Seattle Seahawks
Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer
After another year in which the Seahawks' QB/WR-corps pairing was sublime with the top-three players at those positions ranking all inside the top-30 of all NFL players in PPR format leagues, that is the only sure thing we should be sure to repeat itself come 2021. Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett will be the same they've always been as they were neat playing behind the 16th-best pass-blocking OL in 2020 and now the line hasn't dropped that many spots for next year, ranking 19th overall.
When it came to run-blocking, the unit performed to virtually the same middle-of-the-pack levels of play, which finished with the OL ranking 14th overall in 2020. The five-spot downgrade isn't that large, but it definitely marks a drop in talent. The ones who will suffer the most are, obviously, the team's rushers. Chris Carson will once more be the man in Seattle's backfield, followed by Rashaad Penny (injured most of last season) and Travis Homer (third-year man, just 63 touches so far).
While Carson has been able to string three top-24 finishes in the past three seasons--even a top-12 one in 2019--he went down injured last year and missed four games, splitting his season into two parts. Carson projects (via PFF) to finish next season into the top-24 rushers once more with an expected RB16 finish, while he's getting drafted at an RB21 ADP these days. That's a slight discount for someone who was able to produce behind an average OL last season that won't really have to endure a massive drop in talent from it next year. Penny is more of an afterthought, but he could still be a good late-round flier (ADP of 196.5th overall) and a what-if to have around in case Carson goes down in 2021 as he did last year.
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