RADIO
Well, I think I joked yesterday in this space both about my Fanduel results (no win) and WE trying to spice up the two-game slate (no win). Maybe I'll lay off with my natural witticisms today just a bit to avoid dropping another hex on this nice little four-game slate. Even the EDG win in game one was anything other than ordinary, and I can't recall the last time I've seen a team finish a game with that large of a kill deficit.
Today we've got a couple of top teams, supposedly anyway, in JDG and T1 trying to claw their way back to the top of the standings. The battle for 13th place in the LPL and a quick Gen G stomp to finish out the day. Glad to have some choice back into my life so I can find different ways to lose. Tough to stay up after a couple of rough ones.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Wednesday, February 3rd, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 T1 (-245) vs. Nongshim RedForce (+175)
T1 had both games versus AFS in hand, especially game two, but was able to find a way to throw both of them away. NSRF is coming in off a nice upset of KT on a day everyone was on KT. KT took some draft Ls versus Nongshim and threw their leads away to gift that sweep to the ramen lads. So which one of these two throws harder, that, my dear, is the question. For those who believe in these sorts of things, Peanut was on T1, AND it's his birthday today for the double narrative street.
T1 should be the better team overall, but they have been slipping up late game. That is due in no small part to the constant interchanging of roster parts. We'll see what combination T1 throws out today. I'll like it more if it has Teddy and Faker in it. The youth movement may be better button pushers, but the old hands are steadier in-game. Nongshim has the edge in rift heralds, but other than that, T1 controls the early game stats. They lead in first blood, first turret, first three turrets, and GD@15. T1 should be up at the turn.
Coming down the stretch, though, is where they have struggled mightily. T1 has a negligible edge in drakes, vision score is equal, but Nongshim has a 9% lead in barons. T1 will be on the blue side, which potentially shores up the draft phases giving them the comfort of first pick. NGRF is still a team that likes to go down swinging, averaging over 20 deaths in their losses. T1 are more controlled, with only 15 kills in their wins, and I wouldn't be surprised if Nongshim's constant fishing for fights is enough to throw this T1 squad off in the mid to late game again. Overall I think T1 is the more talented team, and eventually, we should see them convert on some of these early leads they've been building. It is hard to pick against Peanut in a T1 revenge game on his birthday, but we'll save the narratives for baseball season. I'll take T1 here to 2-0 Nonghsim, especially if we get Faker and Teddy as the starters.
Top T1 Plays
- Teddy - ADC - dependant on the start, but leads the team in KP% and would lead the starters in KS%.
- Keria - SUP - he sits second in KS% and is guaranteed to start.
- Faker - MID - the goat status hasn't protected his starting spot, but I believe he will get the go-ahead here, and the matchup into Bay is excellent.
- T1 - TEAM - another spot they can't swap off. If T1 gets the first game, I'd say they're a near-lock to sweep with NSRF history of tilting.
7:00 AM: Gen G (-575) vs. DRX (+350)
A little test tonight for the top of the table in the LCK to get back on track. T1 in the first match needs to et it together, and even Gen G, usually incredibly steady, are flagging a bit. The loss to HLE was ugly, and even the win against SBG was rough around the edges. Game one was as stomp, but game two was anyone's match for 30 minutes until a massive baron outplay by Bdd and Ruler. Gen G will keep us guessing in the jungle; likely, it will be Flawless, but much like T1 in this late game, I don't know that I trust them.
This one looks pretty cut and dried from a statistical standpoint. Whereas Liiv was able to give Gen G trouble early in game two, DRX have their backs up against it on Wednesday. Gen G has the second-best Early Game Rating in the LCK per Oracle's Elixir, and DRX the worst. DRX have the edge in DPM that's it, that's the analysis. Gen G has every other stat category in their favor. Partly due to some eclectic team comps, Gen G has shown some weakness late game, and that's where we've seen DRX at their best. I find it hard to believe that Gen lets DRX hang around close enough in gold that they will be able to activate their clutch genes.
Not the most exciting fantasy matchup, and I think I'll be picking and choosing spots from this one. Gen G shouldn't ever be in danger of losing with the far superior early game and their by the book approach. DRX only average 17.5 deaths per loss, so there are some juicer spots on the slate. Give me a clean low scoring Gen G 2-0.
Top GEN Plays:
- Ruler - ADC - The spots I
- Rascal - TOP - always want
- Gen G - TEAM - from Gen G!
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: Estar (-275) vs. TT (+195)
Estar will be starving for a win in this one, coming off a run of losses to IG, FPX, and LNG. TT will be riding high after their upset over the always mercurial Victory Five squad. Today will go a long way to telling us if Estar is a mid-tier team or making the bottom of the table their permanent home alongside this TT squad.
These two teams are relatively close in the early game. Estar has better first blood, GD@15, but TT has better rift herald, first turret, and first drake rates. Estar leads in GPM and damage output, while TT holds the CSM advantage. TT also owns the edge in total drakes and baron percentage. Estar has a decided advantage in vision score, and you can see how evenly these team stats line up. I have to say it looks like a slight edge to the side of TT.
Estar will have the upper hand in the draft phase by being on the blue side for this matchup. They likely will use that first pick on H4cker as he will be an enormous win condition for the team. They will need to attack Xiaopeng in the draft; we've already seen him play some off-meta champs in Rek'sai and the Sedjuani. His farm numbers have been deficient because of this, and he has thus far been able to make up for this by farming champions (i.e., getting kills and assists). His KP% and KS% are on par with the league average, but his CSM is the lowest of any starting jungler.
The bot duo, I think, is in favor of TT, though, with SamD looking in form and Teen showcasing some of the talent that had him on JDG in the first place. Top and mid are both tight, so what I'm trying to say is that I think I slightly prefer Estar here. They have the first pick in the draft, making up for bot deficiencies or gaining jungle pressure. I think the way Xiaopeng has been playing is precarious, and if he misses any of his early ganks, he will be playing catch up the whole game. I also think that this line should be much closer, and with a few choice TT pieces, I can do whatever else I want with my roster.
Top Estar Plays:
- H4cker - JNG - second in KP% and first in KS%.
- Irma - MID - first in KP% third in KS%.
- ShiauC - SUP - TT is terrible, and maybe they let him get his hands on Thresh.
Top TT Plays:
- SamD - ADC - third in KP% and first in KS%.
- Teen - SUP - leads the team in KP%.
- Xiaoping - JNG - his ganks need to hit, and if they do, he's second on the team in KP% and KS%.
6:00 AM: JDG (-950) vs. Rogue Warriors (+500)
A get right spot for this slow starting JDG spot if ever there was one. They have already taken some significant losses to other top-tier teams, and I'm beginning to worry that they have fallen off after last year's remarkable run. RW remains appalling, and starting QuiQui was NOT the answer at adc. They are stuck in the Betty waiting room.
JDG hasn't lost to the Rogue Warriors since the ill-fated Imp era (summer 2019 week 9 for those who don't recall historical JDG adcs). I don't think they're fixin to start now. There is no statistical reason for JDG to lose to RW, and I would have told you the same thing when RW beat TES. JDG have had over a week to prep, and I'm sure they spent most of the looking ahead to the match with WE on Saturday (part of the five gamer YAY!). That's the be-all and end-all of the case for RW; if JDG disrespect them the way the Top Esports did, they too could lose. If they pay them any mind, this is a smash spot with RW averaging nearly 20 deaths per loss. If you can afford them...
Top JDG plays
- Play whoever you want, can get to fit, or fade and hope for a clean win. Loken, LvMao, and Kanavi would be top targets, but everyone is in an elite matchup.
Summary
- TLDR: T1 2-1, Gen G 2-0, Estar 2-1, and JDG 2-0. The longer I think about it, the more I like TT; lol that match should be so much closer to even it's crazy. RW for leverage play, and Nongshim if you don't think T1 is anywhere near getting it together.
- So, we've got some dog spots to choose from, some tough choices at the top, and the LPL equivalent of the quarterfinals of the toilet bowl. It sounds like an incredible slate! Let's get out there and crush it tonight, everyone.
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