RADIO
Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL on 1/10/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
What an opener it was for the LPL. In true fighting fashion, we had another huge upset, and sadly it wasn't the one I was looking for. Suning brushed off the loss of Swordart and didn't miss a beat from Huanfeng;s suspension to dust TES 2-0. Everyone is going to have to readjust their power rankings after that one. It looked to me like TES were just a bit too aggressive in their search for redemption and Bin continues to be a monster. EDG handled their new pieces masterfully; although they were late on some early fights, they ended up outmuscling OMG for a hard-fought 2-1 victory. Not the best start, but it's time to pick myself up, dust it off and go again.
LCK will have the earliest start date in their history this year and join us overnight on January 13th. While the LPL will be two games every day of the week, the LCK will have two games five nights a week. So without the truncated schedules due to covid that we saw last year, things should settle into a nice rhythm. LPL alone on Monday and Tuesday AM for two-game slates, and LPL/LCK four-gamers for the rest of the week. I miss the old LPL schedule with three games stacked up on Saturdays and Sundays, but they don't put much stock into what I have to say when scheduling.
The esports team here at Rotoballer is committed to joining you every step of the way through the upcoming season. We're looking at adding some new features for you all to enjoy, but until we get those up and running, you'll have your old faithful story-telling grandpa here for daily research and recommendations. I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Sunday, January 10th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Team WE (-500) vs. Rogue Warriors (+320)
The semifinalists of both the preseason tournaments RW the NEST, and WE the Demacia Cup, will meet in their season 11 opener. Both teams made some improvements to their rosters, which were on display in those preseason events, and both teams were fantasy darlings at one point or another in 2020. We'll have to take a look to see what these additions bring to the table and if either squad will return to fantasy prominence.
Team World Elite made one swap and added one player but may be among the most improved teams in the league because of those two small changes. They signed Curse from OMG, who renamed to Breathe. Last split with OMG, he led the LPL in kill share and was second in solo kills among all LPL top laners. Pretty impressive chops, especially in this league and especially on a putrid team. Their other move was the promotion of mid-laner Shanks. Much was made last split of the limits of Teacherma, and Shanks is here to remedy that. He plays a much more standard champion pool and is ready to join the team full time for 2021.
Rogue Warriors made a significant overhaul to their team, adding new players in almost every role. Ziv joined from AHQ in the PCS, Forge came over from Vici (now know as Rare Atom), Betty joined from RNG, and QuiQui from TES. Haro remains in the Jungle, but there are rumblings Zwuji is sitting out, at least for this split. I think we'll see this team be better than last year regardless of who gets the reps at ADC only thru subtraction. Last year, many of their problems stemmed from a lack of consistency that RW remedied this split with a better core. They will start Kelin at adc on Sunday. He's come up from their LDL squad and is a relative unknown, only having played seven games last summer.
WE is, to me, a team that can contend with the elites of the league. The additions of Breathe and Shanks have upgraded them immensely over the break. Rogue Warriors, I believe, have also marginally improved, but I still think they are a gatekeeper team that divides the playoff contenders from the bottom feeders. RW can pull off some upsets, but this won't be one of them. The runners up from the Demacia Cup should stick it to the runners up from the NEST. RW will be the low owned play, and Haro could give them a chance to win, but I won't be going there.
Top WE Plays:
- Beishang - JNG - The engine that drives this team led the team in KP% and was second in KS% during Demacia
- Missing - SUP - Second in KP% during Demacia
- Juimeng - ADC - Led team in KS% in Cup play
- Breathe - TOP - He will be rolling out the UNwelcome mat to Ziv. New players from other regions often struggle to adapt to the league's pressure.
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6:00 AM: Jingdong Gaming (-150) vs. Invictus Gaming (+115)
I couldn't even get my feet under me, and the schedule makers dump an Invictus match on my emotional ass. I really would have liked at least a week to prep for having my heartstrings tugged. Both teams have gone through some offseason changes that we need to look at before digging into the matchup.
Xiye and Mystic are reunited, and it feels so good. They have over 400 games together on Team WE, making them the most prolific LPL duo of all time. Xiye comes over from LGD, and Mystic returns to the LPL from Afreeca. JDG was incredibly strong last split despite their flameout at the World Championships, and they will be looking to return to that form. With Kanavi, Zoom, and LvMao still on the team, they should be among the top contenders to win the spring split again. Loken will start tomorrow in place of Mystic, but we will get to see more of Xiye.
LoL DFS is so much easier for everyone who joined up last year during the sports shortage. You all don't have a deep blinding love of Invictus due to their past heroics like I do. It makes it easier for you to, as some of my sharper Twitter.com friends have said, "just stack against those losers." IG has seriously muddled their situation in the bot lane adding Wink from eStar and calling up Snow from their LDL team. Xun, their LDL jungler, has also joined the main squad, and Ning is taking some time off. Southwind has become inactive, and Lucas comes along with Snow from IG Youth. With all this added turmoil, it's going to be tough to side with IG, especially early in the split when they will likely be experimenting with different bot lane duos. We'll start with Wink/Baolan tomorrow, but we could see a swap from them if things go poorly. I would guess they go match by match, not game by game.
IG opened as the betting favorite by a slight margin, and I am amazed at that. JDG is now a bigger favorite in the betting market than IG was when this line opened. JDG swept IG in spring and summer last year, and with all of IG's troubles, I expect a similar result. Xiye's LGD squad also finished 8-2 game score versus IG last split. Zoom can handle theshy, and Kanavi is one of the best junglers in the league. Xiye has historical success versus Rookie, and the IG bot lane remains a question mark. I'll take JDG for a 2-1 here as they also have some adjustments to be made with their new additions, but the sweep is firmly in play. This pains me to no end, so I'll be busy looking at photos of Baolan and Jackeylove at the zoo together over all-star weekend if anyone needs me.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG - As we saw in preseason play, junglers are still driving gameplay, and Kanavi has been one of the best.
- Zoom - TOP - Led all top laners in KP% during Demacia.
- Loken - ADC - Led the team in KP and KS in Cup play.
- LvMao - SUP - Team leader and shot-caller sure to be involved wherever the action is hottest.
Top IG Plays:
- Rookie - MID - If IG can find a way to win, you believe it will begin and end here.
- XUN - JNG - His KP% was second on the team, while his KS% was first during Demacia Cup play.
- theshy - TOP - Needs to return to 2019 form if IG plan on winning anything this year.
Summary
- TLDR: WE 2-0 RW and JDG 2-1 IG. WE played the most games of any team during the Demacia Cup, and they are looking to hit the ground running. JDG didn't drop a game to IG last year, and while I think this one goes all three, IG has too many question marks, especially in the bottom lane.
- This slate isn't as clear cut as the opener was for ownership, but I think we'll see Team WE lead the way with WE/JDG being the most popular pairing. Next, WE/IG will be followed by JDG/RW, with RW/IG being the least owned pairing. Both matches' pace should be close; based on last year's numbers and the Demacia stats, the IG/JDG matchup will be a bit faster paced. With WE more likely to sweep and pick up those sweet bonuses.
- The second match could end up being a slobber knocker like IG's opener versus FPX last spring, in which both teams nearly made it to 60 kills in the series (IG with 59 and FPX with 51), but I never found much success game stacking. A one-off from this match could be a shrewd move. I'd go with Rookie or Zoom, then stack up the opposite side with WE filling in the rest of the lineup.
- We're off to quite a start with the LPL season, and we're looking to bounce back here on day two, especially with some chalkier slates coming up before we get to the four gamers on Wednesday AM.
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