RADIO
Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for World Championships on 10/3/20. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! The main stage kicks off on Saturday morning, and I am excited to bring you my best attempt at unbiased analysis of these last few big DFSslates before the offseason. We will have four massive six-game slates to start worlds groups, and after that, the groups each have their day to finish out their double round-robin.
We will have three two-game slates each day for those four days, and then DFS will take a back seat to fandom as the best of five bracket stage will be contested on separate days. Two-day slates- ick, that's no fun, but it will likely be our last gasp of DFS action for the year. Hot stove league is fun, and we love to speculate what moves will make and break teams in the coming year. Let's get to it as we zoom in on some of the finest league to be played all year.
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, October 3rd, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Flyquest (LCS) vs. Top Esports (LPL) -650
It looks like the schedulers have started me off with a lob, and I thank them as there will be some tough matches to pick coming up after this freebie. Flyquest comes through as the second seed from LCS, while Top Esports is the LPL summer split champions and one of the more popular picks to win the whole thing. If you've played any DFS or watched any league in the recent past, you know the difference in these two leagues' levels. LPL boasts the past two world champions (even if neither made it back to the big dance this year), while NA clings desperately to one international final in the past, well forever.
On to the teams themselves, Flyquest does have a substantial advantage in first blood percentage as they were third in their league with 58%. TES finished 12th in the LPL (of 17) in the first blood percentage with 46%. Flyquest were also the best drake team in the league with 61%, and TES was only fifth with 53%. That would be where the advantages for Flyquest stop and the TES onslaught begins. Heralds, barons, first turret, first three turrets, gold diff at 15, gold per minute, CSM, lane percentage, jungle percentage, early game rating, and mid to late game rating all fall on the side of TES. TES showed some shaky play towards the end of the summer split but seemed to have that resolved by their playoffs run. The best matchup on the rift for this game will be in the mid lane where Power of Evil was a standout for FLY, and Knight has been a dominant force for TES for two years now.
For Flyquest to win this game, I think they need to leave their star to do what he can with the mid lane matchup. Try to pare the mid picks down by banning out Syndra, Akali, and Leblanc, focusing on the bot lane trying to capitalize on Jackey's signature aggression. Set him behind with repeated attention from Santorin, have Solo on hyper tank duty, and try to win bot. Now that will be harder to do than it sounds, and I doubt they pull it off. This one is likely a walkover for TES, and I see it playing out much like last-year IG vs. TL tiebreakers. For those of you who weren't with us for that one, IG won 18-4 in 24 minutes. If that's the case, the TES fade should be in full effect as they will win too quickly for any real fantasy success. Given NA's pseudo-Korean playstyle, they will try to stall out the game if TES gets up, and they will fall back repeatedly in the face of aggression from the Chinese squad.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Yuyanjia - SUP
- TES Team
4:50 AM: Unicorns of Love (LCL) vs. DRX (LCK) -345
The betting line on DRX is dropping fast, and maybe for a good reason. The two seed from the LCK hasn't played in nearly a month, and the last time we saw them, they were picking their teeth out of the dirt after an anticlimatic stomp by DWG in the LCK finals. UOL is one of the heroes of the play-in stage and nearly undefeated stud from their mid-major region.
When I'm looking at UOL stats, I've used the play-ins for a sample even though they only played eight games. It was against some of the better competition they have faced all year, and they lost twice, which took them all year up to that point to accomplish.
This one looks pretty close via the stats, but keep in mind DRX will, hands down, be the best team that UOL has seen all year. UOL are active early with a 62.5% first blood, 63% rift herald, and 75% first turret rate. All of those are significantly higher than those of DRX. The Korean side will lean on the strength of its laners, and with DRX being the best team in LCK in terms of CSM, that's a solid plan. DRX is one of the worst vision teams in the LCK in raw numbers, often relying on pushing waves to act as free wards, but they will still have a decided advantage over UOL in that department. UOL will have side selection for this match, and again I wouldn't be surprised to see them choose the red side to exploit their draft flexibility further.
As one of the most explosive matches of the day, I expect it to be one of the more popular ones. I think many people will be taking the underdogs here to try to force in higher dollar captains from TES. Many more will see the line sliding (and presumably public opinion as well) away from DRX and see value in that. DRX has had some rough drafts of their own and can certainly play down to their competition level. I feel like this match plays out a bit like game three of the LGD/R7 match, where R7 jumped out to an early lead, but with the overall strength of their players, LGD clawed their way back to win.
Nomanz was one of the best players in the opening stage, but the jump in competition from Bolulu to Chovy will be tough to handle. I like DRX here, and they should score very well in a win. UOL too could pop as we've seen their ability to never let up from ahead or behind. The second match on the slate and it could make or break everyone's day. I'm scared to fade this one, but if it goes under, in a spot where I think a large portion of the field will be heavy on, you will be set up for success. Even though I like DRX to win, UOL could also show out in a win, so I think I'll have some shares there as well. Great analysis, right? Play everyone or play no one, and then win. So to put weight to my arguments, if I played ten lineups today, I'd probably have six with DRX, two UOL, and two with neither.
Top DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG
- Deft - ADC
- Keria - SUP
- Chovy - MID
Top UOL Plays:
- AHaHaCiK - JNG
- Nomanz - MID
- Gadget - ADC
- SaNTaS - SUP
5:40 AM: Rogue (LEC) -200 vs. PSG Talon (PCS)
Here we have another spot where I think the underdog will be popular, and for similar reasons to the last match. When we last saw Rogue again, it was nearly a month ago and on the wrong end of a throttling by G2 Esports. Whereas, we just saw PSG Talon come first in their group with a cobbled-together roster of PCS Allstars. Recency bias aside, this match should be a close one. Rogue will have side selection, and I expect them to choose blue, but that might be a mistake. Rogue has a better win rate on the Red side, and so does PSG Talon. PSG's rates are staggering, with a nearly 80% win rate on red versus 54% on the blue side. If Rogue chooses blue, I think it portends disaster for them as it will show they are taking their opponents for granted.
Looking at the numbers, we can see that Rogue is the more active team early as they hold leads in first blood, first turret, and rift herald. However, PSG has a better gold differential at 15 minutes due to the strength of its lanes. They are the best team in the PCS in CSM, lane percentage, and second in jungle percentage, but those numbers took a bit of a hit in the play-ins. I think that Rogue will match PSG in lane and outwork them early. Rogue also has slight edges in both barons and drakes 3% in each case, going by the summer split numbers. PSG have a decent edge in vision numbers, but Rogue carries the edge in team stats.
Positionally these teams are remarkably similar right down to the kill participation and kill share numbers. The top laners are very close with a slight edge to Hanabi. The mid jungle duo might be the most critical part of this matchup as both teams rely on their mids as the primary carries for the team. I give Rogue the slight edge here in the duo, primarily due to the incredible split that Larssen had. I'm slightly concerned about Inspired's champion pool versus the meta picks we've seen from play-ins, but I'll still side with Rogue here. In the bot lane, I think it's a tie as well. Hans Sama, I like a bit better than Unified, but Kaiwing was likely the MVP of the play-in stage and is playing at a very high level currently. This matchup is very close all around, and I like Rogue to win as long as they show respect to Talon.
Both of these teams play a slower, more controlled game, so neither is likely to pop off. I think Rogue win, but this may be a dog or pass spot for fantasy. Rogue gives up 15.5 deaths in their losses compared to 14.5 for PSG Talon, and so we could see PSG get close to their kill total in wins on the year of 16.6. If I do play any Rogue, it would likely be Larssen as a one-off as he has the second-highest kill share of any mid on the slate not named Knight. Otherwise, all I can recommend here are some small stacks on the dog side, hope the Euros come in overconfident, or look ahead to the matchup with DWG tomorrow.
Top PSG Plays:
- Tank - MID
- River - JNG
- Kaiwing - SUP
- PSG Team
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6:30 AM: Damwon Gaming (LCK) -175 vs. JDG (LPL)
This match is the best game on the slate and could be a preview of the grand final. The LCK champs take on the LPL spring champ and summer runner up JDG, and I couldn't be more excited about it. Will DWG's explosive early game snowball overcome JDG's inevitable mid-game explosion, and will any of it be suitable for fantasy? Usually, I'll start at the top with the first game and move through the list, but I saved this one for last.
DWG has been so dominant in the summer split of the LCK it makes you wonder about the strength of the region as a whole. Just like last year when G2 ran rampant through Europe. Is there a clear top four in the LCK, or is it DWG and three others? DWG has one of the best early-game ratings I've seen since spring split C9. They sport a 3k gold lead at 15 minutes, 77% rift herald, 90% first turret, 95% first three turrets, and some of the best gold differential stats this side of UOL. Much of this strength comes through their solo lanes Nuguri and Showmaker are among the best in the world at their positions. Although with how often Canyon and Beryl visit the mid lane, you could make an argument that Showmaker isn't exactly a solo laner any more. Ghost spends as much time soloing if not more. Roaming Beryl around the map and having Ghost play weak side while creating overloads elsewhere has been the key to their tremendous success. DWG went 34-5 in-game score this summer, losing only to DRX and Gen G in the regular split. Even though DWG has the statistical edge in nearly every metric, JDG has a better mid-late game rating. They are sound decision-makers with the talent to match DWG in almost any position.
Nuguri might be a more talented player than Zoom, but Zoom routinely handles theshy, who Nuguri is often compared to. Kanavi, I give the edge over Canyon, but Showmaker will better Yagao in the mid lane. Yagao, too, gets his share of bruisers in Rookie, Knight, Scout, and Xiaohu, and so he is very familiar with matching up to top tier talent. The bot duo is for me solidly on the side of JDG's Loken and LvMao. Beryl and LvMao are close, but I think LvMao is the better support. Loken will be able to punish Ghost one on one any time the supports are out of lane, and if JDG can win in that matchup, they could come out on top here.
All of that, and my pick to win here comes down to the simplest of all analysis DWG doesn't lose on the blue side. They are 21-0 on blue in the summer, and the last time they did lose on blue was to TES in the Mid Season Cup in May. They have a 76% win rate on the red side to be fair, so it's not as if they are terrible when counter picking. So yes, based on side selection, give me the LCK champs to win here, but you can bet your butt when the second part of the round-robin comes around, I'll happily load up on JDG. This match is as close as any on the slate, which might cut the ownership here as people are hesitant to pick a side. DWG is a cheap favorite people like from the regular split, and I expect them to garner some ownership.
Top DWG Plays:
- Showmaker - MID
- Canyon - JNG
- Beryl - SUP
- Nuguri - TOP
7:20 AM: Gen G (LCK) -245 vs. LGD (LPL)
Two straight LPL/LCK matchups and I'm out here telling you the LPL goes 0-2 vs. their heated rivals. What year is this 2015, but seriously Gen G was my pick to get out from this group as the first seed. LGD's performance in the play-ins did nothing to change my mind about that. LGD is one of the slowest LPL teams, and this year we have seen Gen G turn up their gameplay so that they are now one of the faster LCK teams. Gen G has mostly leveled up their early game, and I think that's where they win this match. Gen G holds the edge in first blood, rift herald, first turret, and gold differential in their regular split stats.
LGD posted some serious early game statistics in the play-ins exceeding both their early game metrics from the regular season and playoffs and Gen G's numbers. I'm willing to chalk that up to a step down in competition. Gen G also owns the monster objectives and vision stats, they are the more talented squad in at least three of the five positions, and they have side selection for this match. Gen has a much better win rate on the blue side, 85% to 57% on the red, while LGD has no pronounced split. I think this is a pretty clear win for Gen G, although I would look for LGD to be more competitive in the second half of the round-robin when they have the advantage of side selection.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Ruler - ADC
- Clid - JNG
- Bdd - MID
- Life - SUP
8:10 AM: TSM (LCS) vs. Fnatic (LEC) -160
Remember, at the top of this article, and I told you all I would be unbiased? That was almost certainly about this match, specifically. We all know I HATE Fnatic, but neither am I a fan of TSM shame they can't both lose. Generally speaking, I think this is a down year for the LEC, and this match may be the start of that if the MAD Lions flaming out in groups wasn't.
TSM picked up the pace of their games in the playoffs compared to the regular split, and even though it was very close, they did qualify as the number one seed from the LCS. Using their playoff stats is valid as they played more games in the playoffs. Using that larger sample size shows that TSM should have the edge over Fnatic early with a better rift herald percentage, first turret rate, first three turret rate, and gold differential. The teams laning stats and first blood percentages are nearly identical, but TSM will lead in monster objectives and vision numbers. In the top lane, both teams can play through their carries, but I'll give Broken Blade a slight advantage over Bwipo (and he's the only FNC member I like). Moving on to the jungle, everyone loves SelfMade as I've seen him be called the best jungler in this group, but this meta that we've seen evolve from play-ins doesn't suit him. Graves, Nidalee, Hecarim, Sett, and Lilia, were the most present junglers in the play-ins, and those are some of his lowest win rate champions, including 0-5 on the year for the Graves. Spica, on the other hand, has some of his best win rates on those champions.
I don't think anyone will question me giving the matchup to Bjergsen over Nemesis in the mid lane. In the same vein, we can give the ADC role over to the side of Rekkles, but his lane mate Hyllisang has had a trying split. He led all LEC supports with an incredible 31.3% of his team's deaths in the summer split and was second in the playoffs with 28.3%. As a result of his many deaths, his kill participation and vision numbers have been down. I give the support advantage over to TSM as well. So I've got TSM winning early, late, and in three of the five positional matchups. Give me TSM for the win, and some stellar upside as FNC gives up nearly 18.5 kills in their losses this summer.
Top TSM Plays:
- Bjergsen - MID
- Spica - JNG
- Broken Blade - TOP
- Biofrost - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - TES, DRX, RGE, DWG, GEN G, and TSM win. I would steer clear of Rogue given their close matchup and lack of upside. The UOL/DRX match has the best numbers today and likely will be reflected in ownership. I worry about TES cruising to victory and not paying off their crazy prices.
- TSM and Gen G are my sneakier upside plays of the day; both play a bit more uptempo than they have in the past, coupled with their opponents higher death totals in losses, could see either of those two put up very good numbers in a win.
- DWG and JDG will likely split ownership, and I'd guess this spot will go slightly under-owned as a whole, with most folks afraid to pick a side in this clash of the titans. I've got DWG nearly a kill higher than JDG in a win, and we saw TES go over 20 kills in two of their three wins versus JDG in the LPL final.
- Flyquest will be far and away the lowest owned of any team on the slate, and they are tied for the third-highest kill projection in a win. Just saying in case, you hate money or are looking for a 5% play.
- After the play-ins surprised many us with the gaps between regions seemingly tightened up a bit, I'm ready to be surprised today, and you'll notice I did talk a lot less about each region's perceived strength.
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