RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! Another day, another emergency meeting for LGD, and it turns out they were the imposters after all. That's the only possible answer because otherwise, my beloved LPL is in big trouble. Even with another epic LGD fail, we went 5-2 on picks yesterday, so we're rolling thus far at worlds, and we're looking to keep it up.
Two two-game slates today as an appetizer for football, not my favorite format, but I'm still excited to be sharing Worlds with you all. Bill, @hofferkid will be in for Monday's two slates, so the Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way; stay tuned!
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 4:00 AM ET on Sunday, September 27th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: V3 (LJL) vs. LGD (LPL) - 850
I'm not looking forward to this one. LGD has looked lost so far this tournament, and boy, do I hear all about it. Lucky for me, MAD Lions look like they are on the struggle bus just as hard, and I called that before the tournament, whereas no one said they didn't think LGD would make it out. Narrow straws to cling to, I know, but when you're dangling off the edge of the cliff, it's all you've got. On to the main event, LGD vs. V3. V3 is an active team in the early game, as we saw with their attempted invade at level one vs. UOL yesterday. I think that V3 challenging LGD early and often can be just what LGD needs to snap them out of their funk. They are one of the better LPL teams in the early game, but they haven't played that way so far at Worlds. What they need to do is take a page out of spring LGD's playbook and let Peanut cook on a carry jungler, but will they do that?
After the loss to R7, I think the pressure to perform continues to mount, and LGD plays tighter and tighter, trying harder not to lose. I like V3 here with the early pressure. I think they get up early on LGD and the team's mental snaps, letting the LJL squad roll. I can see a world where V3 blows their early attempts at action and hand a lead to LGD, plus I think people are starting to come off of LGD after their opening 0-2. Watching this betting line closely could give us a good indicator of where the public is on this match. If the line closes up, I think I'll be more inclined to play LGD as that should push more ownership onto the underdogs. If it opens up and people are playing LGD to snap out of it, then I'll happily load up on V3. With game two seemingly a lock for the LCL champions UOL, I think hedging your exposure here is probably the right play.
Top V3 Plays:
- Bugi - JNG
- Archer - ADC
- Raina - SUP
- Paz- TOP
Top LGD Plays:
- Peanut - JNG
- Kramer - ADC
- Xiye- MID
- Mark - SUP
4:50 AM: Rainbow7 (LLA) vs. Unicorns of Love (LCL) -315
Unicorns looked good, but a bit sloppy in their wins over V3 and PSG Talon yesterday. R7 showed everyone that they are for real with their confident play versus LGD. If you recalled yesterday, I mentioned that the LCL was the only region that I've seen that has a higher win rate on the red side, and with some of their creative bot side picks yesterday, and I think the counter pick suits them well. UOL should be the better early game team, and I think we will see a big fight around the first herald at 8 minutes. UOL has an 88% rift herald percentage in LCL summer, and R7 led the LLA with 64%, and with that kind of priority, it's easy to see where both these teams will be looking. I look for UOL to set up an early dive bot use that pressure to get an early drake and gold lead, so they come into the herald fight up early.
They have been sloppy and aggressive thus far in the tournament. If they botch either the herald play or the early dive, R7 might find themselves with a nice early lead. It's a two-game slate, and UOL will be the highest owned team. It would be LGD if they didn't look completely lost in their opening games, but now I believe the first game will be split in terms of ownership, and people will flock to UOL. I firmly believe UOL will win, but they have shown enough risk to their play style that you can feel fine running out the R7 10% GPP stacks.
Top UOL Plays:
- AHaHaCiK - JNG
- Nomanz - MID
- Gadget - ADC
- SaNTaS - SUP
Top R7 Plays:
- Josedeodo - JNG
- Acce - TOP
- Aloned - MID
- Shadow - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - two slates two TLDRs. I hate this already given what I've seen the first two days, but give me V3 and UOL to win. Two gamer with LGD looking like cheeks, and best of one, play whoever you want. I like the idea of sticking with LGD as others go away, but putting that into practice will be harder than saying it out loud.
- I'll get a ton of crap for that one in the group chat, but unless LGD realizes their win conditions, they are a lost cause right now. The UOL should continue their winning ways, but they can dive too deeply at times, and R7 is capable of punishing mistakes as we saw vs. LGD. I will have no R7 tomorrow, but from a leverage standpoint, I see the play.
- R7 plays very slowly, and so I expect the first game to be the better one to load up on for our bigger stacks while sticking to smaller pieces of the UOL side.
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5:40 AM: PSG Talon (PCS) -245 vs. V3 (LJL)
Judging by twitter PSG Talon will have their main ADC Unified back for this one, which is terrible news for my LJL boys. PSG Talon smurfed on day one, but fell back to earth a bit on day two with UOL loss. V3 looked very loose in their debut on day two, going 1-1. V3 has the advantage in rift herald percentage and first turret rate. They also have a near double first blood rate and an edge in gold differential at 15 minutes. I can't count my underdogs out just yet as they could have a nice early lead in this one. Bugi, having come over from the PCS, is familiar with Kongyue's playstyle, and that could help with his early pathing. V3 looked very sloppy during play on Saturday am, and I don't expect them to correct that overnight. I look for them to get an early lead in this one and fritter it away to PSG Talon, given the PCS team's vision advantage. V3 has the advantage of both dragons and barons, but I think PSG have looked better in the tournament so far. Getting Unified back is a huge boost for this squad and gives them a big carry for their team back. They will no longer have to hide/shield Dee in their drafts, and that should give them added draft capital to take advantage. I like PSG Talon to get the win here with Unified's return, making them a near sure bet to get out of the play-in stage.
Top PSG Plays:
- Kaiwing - SUP
- Unified - ADC
- Kongyue - JNG
- Uniboy - MID
4:50 AM: Unicorns of Love (LCL) vs. LGD (LPL) - 250
UOL could drive the final nail into LGD's coffin on Sunday morning, and if they lose to V3, I'll like UOL's chances here even more. Again we have seen UOL looking strong but a bit rough around the edges thus far in the tournament, while LGD has been just plain bad. I should fill this page with insightful analysis, but without seeing how LGD approach the first game tomorrow, it will come down to this if they beat V3, then I think they win this game. If they can't lift the curse versus the easier opponent who is likely to crash into them in the early game repeatedly, I don't think they will go versus the better team. A win would unlock their mental state, but a loss will keep them in this weird state of paralysis that they seem to be in worrying too much about losing ever to try to win.
Top UOL Plays:
- AHaHaCiK - JNG
- Nomanz - MID
- Gadget - ADC
- SaNTaS - SUP
Top LGD Plays:
- Peanut - JNG
- Kramer - ADC
- Mark - SUP
- Xiye - MID
Summary
- TLDR - PSG and UOL win. Again I like the idea of sticking with LGD as everyone else moves away, aka fading the public. I'm also worried about PSG's early game, but V3 is sloppy enough that I think PSG can fight their way back.
- The UOL/LGD tilt will be my main fantasy target, with both teams giving up more deaths in their losses than the other side of the slate.
- Good Luck out there, everyone, sorry I couldn't clear this situation up better for you all. With LGD reeling, it's hard to analyze them from a rational standpoint hence the load of theory crafting about their mental state. I'll be watching that line in the first game closely and adjusting my exposures accordingly.
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