CFB Expert Betting Picks for Week Three (9/19/2020)

September 17, 2020

Every week, Nick Federline reviews some of the best available bets for the college football slate.

Entering week three of the fall college football season, there have been a fair share of upsets, and pandemonium. The Sun Belt went 3-0 against the Big 12, the Big Ten announced that they will be re-starting their fall season in late October, and the Mountain West Conference is also considering following them back with an abbreviated 8-game fall season as well. With news moving so fast around college football, if you blink you might miss something big.

Last week, we got out to a 2-1 start for the year. The humming offenses of Arkansas State and Kansas State easily surpassed the total with ease, and Charlotte stuck with Appalachian State until the upset bid fell apart in the fourth quarter losing by 15 to still cover that spread. Unfortunately, Notre Dame stumbled out of the gate and was in close game with Duke until late in the second half, a result that could be attributed to the team's nervousness playing in their first conference game ever last week (Coach Brian Kelly said in the postgame interview that the Fighting Irish would return to their Independent status in 2021, likely due to fear of losing to teams like Duke in the future conference play).

This week's slate features several exciting match-ups, with Heisman hopefuls and the start of conference championship chases. Here are a few betting picks to follow along with as you enjoy another Saturday of college football.

Syracuse at Pittsburgh (-21.5)

O/U: 50.5

For those who have not had the opportunity, a drive up Interstate-81 through Syracuse and Upstate New York is a sight to behold with the changing of the leaves in autumn. However, Coach Dino Babers' Syracuse Orange football team has been quite the opposite over the past two seasons with poor recruiting and dismal offensive line play cratering the team last year. As recently as 2018, Syracuse sported a 10-3 record, and was one season removed from taking down the ACC's crown jewel Clemson. In the opener, the Orange took the North Carolina Tar Heels to the fourth quarter in a close game only to give up a trio of fourth-quarter touchdowns. Syracuse managed to force two interceptions, and ball hawk safety Andre Cisco will be hoping to notch another pick versus the Panthers.

Under Coach Pat Narduzzi, the Pitt Panthers have a 37-29 record, and have won 24 conference games in that span - a total that only trails Miami and Clemson. Quarterback Kenny Pickett and the offense were able to do anything they wanted to in an easy 55-0 season-opening win over FCS-level Austin Peay. Even after talented defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman opted out of the fall season to prepare for the draft, the Panthers return a very deep defense that only allowed Austin Peay one net rushing yard in their opener last week. While Coach Narduzzi has stated that he expects all of his starters back this week, the ACC COVID-19 protocols may not allow that. The ACC requires players who test positive for COVID to quarantine for 10 days, and the Panthers missed seven players for undisclosed reasons relating to potential positive COVID-19 tests or contact tracing against the Governors last week including starting defensive linemen Rashad Weaver and Keyshon Camp. Even with the Panthers' depth along the defensive line, this will be an item to keep a close eye on this week.

Despite Pitt's recent success in this rivalry between two northeastern ACC teams, the games are always played close. Pitt has won 15 of the past 18 games against the Orange and clearly come in with the superior talent in this game, but the Orange and Panthers have played six of the last eight match-ups to single digit margins of victory.

Pick: Syracuse +21.5

Houston at Baylor (-4.5)

O/U: 62

2019 was a lost cause for Houston under Coach Dana Holgorsen's first year at the helm. After a 1-3 start to the season, a few of the team's key players including quarterback D'Eriq King decided to sit the remainder of the season to redshirt and preserve a season of eligibility. With King having transferred to Miami in the off-season, junior Clayton Tune will retain the starting gig from a year ago. Tune struggled at times, and ended the season with a 59.1% completion percentage and a mere 11 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. Tune does have star receiver Marquez Stevenson, who led the FBS with nine receptions of 50 yards or more and is always a threat to take to break an explosive play. Unfortunately for Coach Holgorsen, a defense that could not seemingly stop anyone last year does not look very improved and may be a sore spot for the Cougars all season long.

The Baylor Bears were one of the best stories in college football last season, making their first appearance in a Big 12 Conference Championship game, an 11-3 record and a Sugar Bowl appearance. After such a successful campaign and overseeing a 1-11 to 11-3 transition in just two seasons, former Coach Matt Rhule took a leap to take the head coaching position for the NFL's Carolina Panthers. Rhule was replaced by former LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda, who has the benefit of getting back fourth-year starting quarterback Charlie Brewer - a talented dual-threat signal caller. Top receiver Denzel Mims is now with the New York Jets, but the Bears do return plenty of play-makers on the outside like junior Tyquan Thornton - a potential All-Big 12 breakout receiver.

With Aranda's focus on defense, and the patchwork offensive line of the Cougars, this game could get ugly in a hurry. One key player to keep an eye on is edge rusher William Bradley-King, an Arkansas State graduate transfer, who had 13.5 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks a season ago and will be used as a disruptive situational pass rusher for Baylor. Expect Baylor's defense to pressure Tune to the tune of a few costly turnovers and the experienced quarterback Brewer to guide the offense in the Bears' season opener.

Pick: Baylor -4.5

Wake Forest at North Carolina State (-2.5)

O/U: 52.5

The North Carolina State Wolfpack endured a miserable 2019 season due to injury, inconsistency, and one of the worst defenses in college football. The Wolfpack only win over a Power 5 school was a 16-10 home win over Syracuse. Coach Dave Doeren is entering his 8th year in charge in Raleigh, and the temperature on his seat has been getting hotter as the 2020 season approaches. For a school that has five current quarterbacks in the NFL (Phillip Rivers, Russel Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Finley and Mike Glennon), the results at the position last year had to be disheartening. Devin Leary is a redshirt sophomore this season, with hopes of showing significant improvement over last year's 8 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. Leary's top target will be tight end Cary Angeline, who is a legitimate NFL prospect on a team with a dearth of potential pro talent.

Losing to Clemson by 24 points is a respectable result for Wake Forest, who have experienced a resurgence under Coach Clawson. The offense, led by Hartman and the running back tandem of Christian Beal-Smith and Kenneth Walker, will be difficult for most average ACC teams to contain. Luckily for the Demon Deacon and their star edge rusher Carlos "Boogie" Basham, the Wolfpack are in the midst of a total rebuilding project and present a good opportunity to notch their first win of the abbreviated 2020 fall season.

Pick: Wake Forest +2.5

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