RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! EUM is back, and we'll see each group finish out on their games, breaking things down to three separate two-game slates. Today is Group B's turn in the sun with the first seed from Spain, the Movistar Riders, the second seed from Poland AGO Rogue, the play in rep from the Prime League Team GamerLegion, and the Balkan champs SuppUp Esports all thrown in the blender for six different games featuring these four teams.
After each group finishes up, we'll proceed to the bracket stage, where the group's top seeds face the twos from the other groups in the best of three elimination matches. The Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way, so stay tuned!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the EU Masters slates on DraftKings that lock at 12:00 PM ET on Wednesday, September 9th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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12:00 PM: Team GamerLegion vs. Movistar Riders (-180)
If you can recall, the last time we were together to talk EU Masters, the LFL and the LVP SLO had yet to finish their summer splits. So much like a European football league, we saw MSR begin their EU Masters run, then return to business as usual, finishing off their summer playoffs in style with a pair of 3-0 victories over Real Betis and G2 Arctic. Team GamerLegion, meanwhile, has been scrimmaging with the LFL teams and looking to stay sharp.
MSR did go 3-0 over G2 Arctic in their summer playoffs' finals, but they were behind at 15 minutes in two games. When these two teams last met, GL was ahead early until a botched rift herald attempt led to MSR getting back into the game. To help you conceptualize this matchup, think of MSR as JDG and GL as IG. MSR has a better mid-game and late-game with strong objective focus, while GL will attempt to win through lane and snowball from there. That may not have been the best analogy since I like the Prime League squad here, and they're counterpart IG has had very tough sledding against MSR stand in JDG of late.
MSR has the edge in first blood, drakes, heralds, and vision numbers while the two teams sit even in baron percentage. GL answers with a higher first turret rate and better damage numbers. GamerLegion will have side selection for this matchup, and I expect them to pick blue; they were 10-2 on the blue side during the Prime League summer split. Blue side also holds a 64% win rate on the main stage of Eu Masters. This stat, coupled with the Spanish side's early troubles, gives me some faith in the Prime League representative.
With the second set looking very lopsided, I think it might be worth the shot on GL, though if they do not spiral the game out of control quickly, MSR will be the top-scoring team of the day. This game carries the higher upside of the two in the first set, so whichever side you land on, I like taking big stacks from this match. GL gives over 25 death on average in losses and MSR 18; hence my love for this side of the slate.
Top MSR Plays:
- Xico - MID
- Elyoya - JNG
- Javaa - ADC
- Rhuckz - SUP
Top GL Plays:
- Rabble - JNG
- Nite - MID
- Visdom - SUP
- Phones - TOP
- Hjarnan - ADC
12:50 PM: AGO Rogue (-700) vs. SuppUp
The second match from the first game set is a bit of a mismatch. When we last saw SuppUp in the spring edition of EUM, they posted a 3-3 record within their group, but they had a premium draw, something they do not have the luxury of this go around. SuppUp is looking at a 0-6 Main Stage right in the face. For their part, Rogue coming in as the second seed from the Ultraliga will look to continue their success from the first round robin.
In the first match between the two, Rogue showed their quality by nearly ending the game before the twenty-minute mark. There isn't much here for me to theory craft a win for the Balkan squad. They needed and got a lot of help in their fifty-minute 32-24 kill win over Fnatic Rising in the spring. Rogue did get overaggressive in their opener vs. Supp, which made the game stretch out to a 24-minute victory. Supp is a slower team that likes to scale into the late game, which takes some luster off Rogue's side. Supp only gave over 12 deaths per game within the Balkan league, which ratchets up to 15.5 with EUM factored in and 18.6 when you only consider the three losses in the opening week. So while I think Rogue win this match easily, the concern would be that they do so too quickly and don't score as well as the winner of the first match. So I will look for smaller stacks and the team slot from this side. Even though Supp could go as low as 10% owned on a two-game bo1, I don't know if I'll end up with any.
Top RGE Plays:
- Szygenda - TOP
- Woolite - ADC
- Trymbi - SUP
- Rogue Team
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1:40 PM: Movistar Riders (-120) vs. AGO Rogue (-115)
I wish we could see these international events rearrange the group stages' scheduling to make them more DFS friendly. Generally, I'm not too fond of these days where we get three sets of two-game slates, but one thing I have found to be pretty valuable over the years is playing opposite whatever happened in the first slate to take advantage of recency bias. If my upset pick in the first round comes through, I will load up on MSR. Rogue should win the first match and handily giving them an illusion of enhanced strength versus a weaker opponent while MSR could lose or struggle with GL giving them the appearance of weakness. If you remember this match from the first week of play-ins, it was an exciting affair in which Rogue should have won easily, but couldn't find a way to close. The result was an MSR win in 36 minutes that saw Rogue with the higher fantasy scores.
So now, we will see what MSR can do on the blue side of the matchup. The first round-robin, I liked the Spanish side, and I do again regardless of whether they get knocked off in GL's opener as that will only help me with ownership. As we've seen throughout the tournament, the Spanish teams are solid around objectives, and MSR is no exception.
They hold the advantage over Rogue in most statistical categories, including first blood, first turret, dragons, heralds, barons, and vision numbers. Rogue answers with better damage output, better damage to gold ratio, and a better gold differential at fifteen minutes. MSR is a slight betting favorite as I write this, and I expect them to remain there unless they show poorly against GL. I also hope their superior objective control staves off Rogue's aggressiveness and leads them once more to victory. With the second half of the slate again looking one-sided, I can see avenues for Rogue to win as well and don't mind splitting this match as Rogue definitely should have won the first match between these two. If I stick with MSR, I'll probably look for smaller stacks, and if rolling out Rogue stacks, I'll go big or go home. MSR gives up more kills in their losses than do Rogue, and I'll look to capitalize on that, and again hope that the second match goes smoothly for the favorite.
Top MSR Plays:
- Xico - MID
- Elyoya - JNG
- JaVaa - ADC
- Rhuckz - SUP
Top RGE Plays:
- Woolite - ADC
- Trymbi - SUP
- Zanzarah - JNG
- Szygenda - TOP
2:30 PM: Team GamerLegion (-400) vs. Suppup Esports
If the former Energypot Wizards have any magic left in them, this could be their last chance to win at summer EU Masters. As I've mentioned, GL is very like IG and will be looking to win this matchup through superior talent and lane dominance. If SuppUp can weather that early storm and drag this into a late-game scenario much as they did versus FNC in spring, they could find their only win. It is more likely, though, that the talent gap is just too wide. Even though the first match between the two ended with a 15-1 scoreline, it was very close through the first 25 minutes with SuppUp holding the gold lead until GL secured the dragon soul, and the team fight around it. Having the blue side again will be a boon to GL and should be enough to lock in the win. This game might be the best spot for the side of SuppUP all day if you're looking for a long shot.
Top GL Plays:
- Rabble - JNG
- Nite - MID
- Hjarnan- ADC
- Visdom - SUP
3:20 PM: SuppUp Esports vs. Movistar Riders (-650)
SuppUp out of the frying pan and into the fire again, this truly is a death group. MSR could either have this group locked up or be in a fight to the finish with GL and Rogue, depending on the earlier results.
What doesn't depend on those results is the way we should see MSR dominate this matchup. I've talked about their objective control now on to their mid jungle synergy Elyoya and Xico are among the top pairings in the entire tournament and two fo my favorite plays from this side. Again when looking at the matchup, the concern is that MSR cruise to victory and don't pay off their prices, but this could be SuppUp's final stand. Supp will be desperate for a win here and should pull out all the stops to get there, and I think that helps the side of MSR.
Top MSR Plays:
- Elyoya - JNG
- Xico - MID
- JaVaa - ADC
- Rhuckz - SUP
4:10 PM: AGO Rogue (-160) vs. Team GamerLegion
In all likelihood, this will be the match that determines who, along with MSR, advances to the knockout stage. I'm a fan of GL, but I don't know if they will have the juice to knock out the Polish #2. Rogue is one team that can match GL at their best with early aggression and powerplay.
The two teams are close statistically, with GL holding narrow leads in monster objectives, and Rogue with better vision numbers. I think Rogue should rightly be the favorite here after a terrific regular split GL has been exposed a bit. If they aren't able to win lane win game, they can have trouble there, and this match is an even talent matchup. GL has struggled with effective map play. We have seen Rogue too stumble around objectives and have trouble closing out games (see also vs. MSR), and the pricing on DK is very close between the two. I think it's very reasonable to split sides here and play a bit on both. I am always a fan of underdogs, especially in a best of one format, so I'll take GL to make a big move to finish second in the group and take out Rogue. Woolite has let me down in the past, and maybe I'll get lucky with RGE allowing Hjarnan has his famous Heimerdinger. I've talked to some people on the EU regional scene, and they are on the side of Rogue in this one. I can't blame them as GL surrender big points in their losses, never being afraid to fight their way back into the game. If I go Rogue then I'll go heavy, and if riding with the dogs here I'll probably go small and count on some big stacks of MSR vs. the desperate Balkan squad.
Top RGE plays:
- Zanzarah - JNG
- Woolite - ADC
- Trymbi - SUP
- Szygenda - TOP
Top GL Plays:
- Rabble - JNG
- Nite - MID
- Hjarnan- ADC
- Visdom - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - I like GL to pull out a 3-0 day barely, with MSR right behind going 2-1, Rogue stumbling a bot from their spring showing with a 1-2, and poor SuppUp not being able to match up with another 0-3 day.
- Back to two-game slates in a best of one set, I think we see game stacking come back into play. Especially the first slate, I could see a GL/MSR stack with the Rogue team being very live.
- We've seen in the past that these BO1 can bring out some high variance so that just because SuppUp should lose all three doesn't mean they will, or more likely, just because one side of the slate looks juicer on paper doesn't mean it will finish up that way. Don't be afraid to mix it up with a captain from your small stack or to big stack the game that's looking like a slower matchup.
- Three weeks til WORLDS everyone, let's get out there and fill these contests do that FD can bring back intra-league league and that DK can buff the competitions up for 9/25 when the play-in stage starts. Just save some tickets for me!
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