RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Michael Kim, just like Kevin Na last week at the Military Tribute at the Greenbrier, gave us our second straight runaway Sunday finish. Kim made John Deere Classic history by finishing at 27-under par and breaking Steve Stricker's old tournament record by one stroke. As an additional bonus, Kim punched his ticket to this week's Open Championship at Carnoustie with the victory. Joaquin Niemann, our pick to win, finished in a share of 23rd place, and Bronson Burgoon, our bonus bomb sleeper pick, ended the tournament in a share of second place.
Burgoon was a pleasant surprise, but at the end of the day, we are looking for winners, which was precisely what our head-to-head pick of the week provided. Our recommendation of Kevin Tway +145 over Chez Reavie ended up closing Thursday morning with Tway all the way down to +125. This now makes us 2-0 in beating the closing line, and most importantly, we remain perfect on our head-to-head picks through two weeks. With the Open Championship on tap, let's take a look at value plays we will be targeting.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finkelstein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
And for a more in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly column, providing the best fits for the week's course.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
2018 Open Championship - Carnoustie - 7,402 Yards - Par 71
Carnoustie is often perceived as being the most demanding course on the Open Championship rotation. It is a coastal course with no trees, but despite being right on the coastline, no holes are on the water. Because of the nature of it being a seaside venue, wind can become aggressive and completely alter how the course plays. Even on calm days, it will be breezy. However, weather reports currently have a somewhat moderate wind projection compared to what was expected. Wind can turn on a dime though, so you will need to keep an eye on the weather leading up to the start of the tournament.
On a good day, the course can be taken apart with ball striking skills and a little distance. Players that can avoid the problematic fairway bunkers will have good looks into the greens on their approach shots. The greens have very little undulation to them, even though balls will shuttle away if not placed in the right spot.
Pick to Win
Rory McIlroy (18/1, DK Price $11,000, FD Price $11,500)
Early reports have Carnoustie fairways as being baked, but the putting surface nice and green. What this means is that the balls will run forever on the fairways, but the greens won't suffer the same Saturday fate that we saw at the U.S. Open of nothing stopping. Short-hitters may see the biggest boost in theory since their drives will get an added distance that they are not used to having, but it will also allow the tee to green stalwarts like McIlroy to potentially have an even easier go of things at Carnoustie.
The one thing we have learned about Rory McIlroy in his career is that he does not win on challenging tracks. In McIlroy's 23 professional wins, he has never won a tournament where he finished at single digits under par. In fact, he has never won an event that he finished at worse than 12-under par. Think about that stat for a second. Unless the Irish golfer torches the course, he isn't winning the tournament. On top of succeeding at easy venues, he also seems to do better in benign weather conditions. Carnoustie is a coastal course that tends to lend itself to extreme wind conditions. Weather is a finicky thing to speculate on because it can change in less than a second, but Carnoustie has experienced very little wind or rain in the last three weeks, and only a mixed amount is projected in the forecast over the duration of the event.
I get the hesitation and uncertainty most people in the industry are experiencing when it comes to rostering McIlroy for DFS purposes or outright bets. Carnoustie is the most challenging course on the Open rotation with its complex decision making and potential for excessive wind conditions. But I am not going to let the former number one ranked golfer in the world go unnoticed, mostly when Carnoustie is shaping up to play more like an offensive slugfest than the grueling test we were anticipating seeing. McIlroy comes into the week at under an eight percent projected ownership currently, and if the tournament turns into a shootout, he can be a game-changer in large GPP fields. He will not be for the faint of heart, but McIlroy provides the ultimate upside. Be sure to keep an eye on the projected weather forecast and if anything changes between now and the start of the tournament.
Sleepers
Alex Noren (40/1, DK Price $8,300, FD Price, $9,800)
Alex Noren is one of the best players in the world who is still looking for his first breakthrough Major. The Swedish sensation has captured 10 career European Tour titles in his career but has failed to deliver so far on his maiden PGA Tour victory. So wouldn't it be ironic if Noren obtained his first PGA Tour title on foreign soil?
Noren enters the Open Championship with five straight top-25 finishes, and in his last start, he claimed the HNA Open de France title. As a result, Noren's price crashed from 80/1 at some Vegas books, all the way down to 40/1 or less after his victory. I was lucky enough to grab a number on the 36-year-old early in the year, but if you have not already invested in Noren and wanted to get into the game, I would act quickly. Even the 40/1 numbers appear to be drying up fast and are starting to settle in between 33/1 to 35/1. To me, Fleetwood and Noren have the same realistic chance of capturing the Claret Jug. Even though Fleetwood can win, he isn't worth the investment at half the price of what Noren is. Jump in on the value Noren provides and get yourself the same caliber player at double the odds. Noren is the 17th most expensive player on DraftKings, 27th on Fanduel and 14th in the betting market.
Marc Leishman (50/1, DK Price $8,000, FD Price $9,800)
Marc Leishman comes into the Open Championship at lower odds than we are accustomed to seeing him at in Major tournaments. But even at 50/1, I still think there is enough meat left on the bone to warrant a wager on the underrated Aussie. If Leishman is ever going to capture his first major, it has always seemed like the Open Championship may be the place he would finally do so. In his last four years at this tournament, he has arguably had the best tournament history of any player that didn't capture the title. Leishman has posted three top-six finishes, including a playoff loss in 2015 to Zach Johnson at St. Andrews.
Leishman is one of the best wind players in the world and shouldn't be thrown off of his game if gale force winds do strike down on Carnoustie. In his last 24 rounds with wind strength of moderate or worse, Leishman ranks in the top 25 in strokes gained approach, strokes gained tee to green and scrambling compared to the field. But even if the wind doesn't become a factor, Leishman still ranks in the top 25 in those exact statistics over the last 100 rounds. Capturing your first Major is never easy, but the 34-year-old has been knocking on the door for far too long, and Carnoustie may finally be the first place to answer for him. Leishman comes into the week as the 20th highest priced player on DraftKings, 27th on Fanduel and 19th in the betting market.
Tyrell Hatton (50/1, DK Price $7,900, FD Price $8,900)
Tyrell Hatton has some of the most lopsided and inconsistent betting odds currently in the market. As I sit here writing this, Hatton is presently 70/1 at some Las Vegas casinos but as low as 40/1 on some of your sharper offshore markets. For the sake of parity, I will tout him as a 50/1 selection but please do scan the market for the best number you can find.
Hatton has become one of the biggest market movers in this year's Open Championship, and it is easy to understand why. The 26-year-old Englishman is a phenomenal links-style specialist and has captured back-to-back Alfred Dunhill Links Championships. The significance of those two titles is the fact that the tournament plays on a three-course rotation that includes Carnoustie as one of the venues. Many golf pundits have labeled Hatton as a golfer with rowdy temperament, and while there is definite truth to those assertions, he is beginning to mature mentally and comes into this year's Open Championship with good form and appearing like he is ready to breakthrough. Hatton is 19th overall in the betting market but an eye-popping 44th overall on Fanduel.
Ian Poulter (66/1, DK Price $7,800, FD Price $9,400)
Ian Poulter has rebounded from his tumultuous 2017 season and is currently playing some of the best golf he has in years. In 2017, Poulter was playing under a medical exemption for the early part of the campaign and needed to make over $300,000 or over 218 FedEx Cup points from ten events to retain his full-time playing card. After the 10 tournaments, Poulter came up just short in money and narrowly missed out on the number of points needed. But luckily for the Englishman, a point change modification gave him the number of points required to retain his card, and it is safe to say that the 42-year-old has made the most of it.
Poulter comes into the week with 11 straight made cuts worldwide, including eight top-25 finishes and a win at the Houston Open in April. Most importantly, Poulter has the kind of game that could seamlessly fit Carnoustie if the wind starts to blow. In his previous 24 rounds compared to the field in moderate or worse wind conditions, Poulter ranks first in par-four scoring between 450 to 500 yards, third in sand saves, fourth in strokes gained tee to green, fifth in scrambling, sixth in strokes gained approach and sixth in greens in regulation gained.
I do feel it is important to note that Poulter has some slight controversy entering the Open Championship. A marshall at the Scottish Open is accusing him of being verbally abusive during the event. Nonsensical publicity before a tournament is never a positive, but Poulter has the type of personality that he shouldn't be affected. Poulter is the 32nd highest priced player on Fanduel but just 24th in the betting market.
Bonus Bomb
Dylan Frittelli (300/1, DK Price $6,800, FD Price $8,100)
If you want to bet Dylan Frittelli, I would recommend scouring your sportsbooks for the best price and doing so as soon as possible. Frittelli's number is rapidly decreasing across the board and has even reached as low as 125/1 in some places.
The reason for this is simple. Frittelli is an excellent links player and is currently in great form. The South African has been a radically different player in Europe than he has been in the United States. In Frittelli's nine starts on foreign soil in 2018, he has recorded seven top-25 finishes and has made eight of nine cuts. Frittelli is probably better utilized as a top-10 or top-20 bet, but I genuinely believe that his true odds are closer to 100/1. He has the opportunity to make for a game-changing pick in large GPP tournaments.
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Kevin Na +105 over Charley Hoffman -125
Kevin Na $7,000 price tag on DraftKings vs. Charley Hoffman $7,000 price tag
Kevin Na 8.1 percent projected ownership vs. Charley Hoffman 4.7 percent projected ownership
If you don't catch the line movements early, I think Major Championships offer some of the worst value when it comes to head-to-head bets. I know that statement may sound ridiculous on the surface because there are a plethora of betting opportunities available, but I feel like they overload us with extremely thin value margins and juiced up numbers on most head-to-head matchups. I've always found that your average weekly events offer far more value to be had, probably because there isn't as much time and effort that go into constructing those lines. I am not the type of person that is wanting to lay -130 or more on a wager and a lot of these matchups are already juiced up to what the right side should most likely be.
With that being said, the sportsbooks are misrepresenting Kevin Na's true odds by making him an underdog in a matchup with Charley Hoffman. I think a lot of this stems from Hoffman getting full credit for having a better chance of capturing the title. I always try to stress this during my head-to-head writeups, but tournament win equity should have nothing to do with head-to-head odds. Sure, the two things can coincide together, but if a player is more likely to win a tournament but also more likely to miss the cut, you are talking about the parameters needed for an outright wager, not a head-to-head bet. In fairness, Hoffman has posted a handful of quality results in a row, but he has been a statistical disaster for the most part.
In Na's last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks 8th in strokes gained approach, 22nd in strokes gained tee to green, 11th in sand save percentage and 30th in scrambling. Hoffman in those exact statistics grades out 79th in strokes gained approach, 84th in strokes gained tee to green, 110th in sand save percentage and 61st in scrambling. Both players have been historically great wind players, so I don't think possible gusts of wind will necessarily change the complexity of the bet. Na has made his last four Open Championship cuts and rides in with momentum off of a win at the Military Tribute at the Greenbrier. Hoffman, although still respectable, has made three of his last five Open cuts, which features a share of 67th and a 77th in two of those cuts he made. I wouldn't be surprised if money comes in on Hoffman because of his perceived tournament win equity being higher than Na, so if you do want to place a wager, this may be one of those rare situations where waiting might create better value.
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