RADIO
Change is in the air at this point in the NFL season. Teams that are out of the playoff running are starting to look towards the future, or a team that is in the thick of a playoff push can bench their starting quarterback (yes I’m looking at you Buffalo). New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning has been benched for former Jet Geno Smith, and the 49ers have turned to Jimmy Garoppolo to see if he can be the next Steve Young or Joe Montana for this once proud franchise.
Even though these teams have made changes at quarterback, how should fantasy owners expect these players to perform? Fantasy owners should not suspect a lot from these new quarterbacks as they will be playing for offensive lines that are near the bottom of the league. Without time to properly survey the field and dissect a defense, nothing great can come with these changes.
Two offensive lines that may go through a quarterback change at some point this season are the Kansas City Chiefs and the aforementioned Buffalo Bills. Both of these teams’ offenses have changed dramatically for the worse versus earlier in 2017 and each offensive line is having a major impact as to why.
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Offensive Line to Watch - Buffalo Bills
Things were looking good early in the season for the Bills as they jumped out to a 5-2 record before the wheels started to fall off on their offensive line. The next two weeks against the Jets and Saints exemplified the issues in the running game as they managed just 132 combined yards on the ground. They have improved from that low point of the season, but are nowhere near the dominant running blocking force from 2016. LeSean McCoy has just one game over 100 rushing yards in his last four outings including two efforts of below two yards per carry. There has been a small yet substantial drop off from Left Guard Richie Incognito as a run blocker. Incognito who was a top-100 player in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus for the 2016 season will almost certainly no longer be on that list. His overall grade has dropped by seven points from his 2016 grade and nearly 10 points from his 2015 grade.
Not only have there been issues due to the lack of running game execution, but there have been issues in the passing game as well. The loss of Cordy Glenn, even though his 2017 performance hasn’t been up to his usual standards, can be seen as rookie Dion Dawkins has attempted to step in at left tackle. Dawkins will no doubt improve with time, but he has struggled in pass protection in spots. Early in the first quarter against the Chiefs this past week, Dawkins fails to properly pick up the line stunt from the defensive line. He is slow to kick/slide out after passing off the penetrating defensive lineman to Incognito and Wood. This causes Tyrod Taylor to have to step up and rush his throw on third down leading to an incompletion.
Later in the quarter the Bills are in another third and long situation. The combination of Incognito and Dawkins give up a pressure allowing quick penetration in Tyrod Taylor’s face, making Taylor once again have to move up the pocket and miss a completion.
Fantasy Impact
Stock Down: LeSean McCoy
Obviously there has been some recent drop off from McCoy not only in terms of production, but in terms of usage as well. McCoy has not caught five or more passes in a game since Week 8 and only has seen 20 carries on one occasion since that game. McCoy’s snap count has also dwindled averaging just 64% of the Bills snaps in the last three weeks. Former Saint Travaris Cadet has picked up the slack in the last two weeks for the injured Mike Tolbert, contributing on third down especially. He has seen over 30% of the snaps during that time. If McCoy loses out on the passing game work that he was seeing earlier in the year, he becomes a touchdown dependent play versus having a safe floor like when he started the season
Offensive Line to Watch - Kansas City Chiefs
In one of the most shocking mid-season drop-offs in recent memory, the Kansas City Chiefs went from looking like the greatest show on turf to an offense that is struggling more than the Cleveland Browns to put points on the board. Teams have completely changed the way they are playing the Chiefs over the last few weeks, daring them to throw the ball down the field and allowing short completions. Among the various problems, including Alex Smith turning back into a dink and dunk passer, the Chiefs offensive line has deteriorated before our very eyes with one of the biggest culprits being Center Mitch Morse. Morse has graded out as the number 30 center according to Pro Football Focus with an overall grade of 45.4 after scoring above 73.8 the last two seasons. The decline in Morse’s play along with the decline from Left Tackle Eric Fisher have been two problem areas that are hard to overcome for even the best of offensive line units. Fisher struggled mightily last week against Jerry Hughes in both phases of the game. In this clip Fisher is beat easily to the inside with a rip move causing Alex Smith to try and avoid Hughes, but run right into the awaiting arms of the rest of the Bills defensive line. This first and 10 play as the Chiefs were trying to go in for their first score of the game (in the 2nd quarter) was a momentum killer.
Hughes was also a terror in the run game against Fisher. Early in the third quarter, the Chiefs are trying to run an outside zone to the left side, Fisher hops and does not engage Hughes early with his hands. Without getting his hands on Hughes early, he is able to quickly shift inside against Fisher and make a big play in the backfield causing a 2nd and long for the Chiefs. Fisher has never been an absolute stud at tackle in his career, but mistakes like the two above are costing his team dearly. Fisher right now is the number 40 ranked offensive tackle according to Pro Football Focus, and if his play continues in this manner against the Jets and their stout defensive line, the Chiefs will continue to spin their wheels on offense.
It’s not only the fact that both Fisher and Morse have regressed this season, but schematically, the Chiefs are losing the battle as well. A bit more than halfway through the first quarter the Chiefs produce one of their best runs of the day on this trap to Kareem Hunt.
Hunt is able to get to the second level of the defense, but is met by a scraping linebacker to hold him to a modest gain. How is that linebacker able to scrape over the top to make the play? Unfortunately for Hunt, there is no one to block the backside linebacker on this play because the left tackle needed to make sure the Jerry Hughes at defensive end did not crash down and make the play in the backfield. Typically you will see this tackle feint to allow the defensive end to come up-field and remove themselves from the play. He would then climb to the linebacker to cut them off from making the play. If Fisher is schemed to do that, Hunt could have a 10 yard gain or more.
Fantasy Impact
Stock Down: Tyreek Hill
Hill should still provide value in PPR leagues as he is catching a high percentage of his targets over the last two weeks. However, those 14 catches have only netted out 109 yards with zero touchdowns. The deeper completions that were commonplace for the Chiefs early in the season are no longer. Hill is being relegated to catching hitches, curls and screen passes with the occasional deep shot to try and loosen up opposing defenses. Those defenses know that they can now get pressure on Alex Smith with their defensive line alone and do not have to blitz which would set up great matchups for Hill on the outside. He is a low-end WR2 going forward instead of the borderline WR1 that he was earlier in the year.
Stock Down: Kareem Hunt
It’s hard to say that things will get worse for Kareem Hunt because they have already been near rock bottom. Hunt has failed to top 100 total yards from scrimmage in four games and has not scored a touchdown since Week 3. He is consistently seeing stacked boxes, daring Alex Smith to be accurate with his throws down the field, something that hasn’t been the case since the earlier part of the season. Expectations should be lowered for Hunt going forward as a low-end RB2.
Top Five Offensive Lines
1) New Orleans Saints
2) Philadelphia Eagles
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) New England Patriots
5) Minnesota Vikings
Bottom Five Offensive Lines
32) Miami Dolphins
31) Cincinnati Bengals
30) San Francisco 49ers
29) Seattle Seahawks
28) Jacksonville Jaguars
For any questions about offensive line play in the NFL, feel free to contact me @TheRealHalupka on Twitter.
