Welcome to the fifth installment of our February ranking breakdowns! If you’re like us here at RotoBaller, you're giddy with the fact Spring Training is officially underway.

This round of rankings features seven of our experts. They are Brad Johnson, Max Petrie, Kyle Bishop, Harris Yudin, Jeff Kahntroff, Bill Dubiel, and Nick Mariano. Today we'll cover shortstop. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading.

Don't forget to also read the rest of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles and analysis. In case you missed it, we've been churning out dynasty rankings, keeper values, and top MLB prospect rankings for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. Let's get to it.

 

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Shortstop

DISCLAIMER: Our SS rankings do not include Manny Machado, who is ruled SS eligible in Yahoo! leagues. Should you play in a Yahoo! league, he is our #1 SS overall.

Tier One: In a tier of his own is Carlos Correa. The rookie phenom led all SS in HR (22) and SLG (.512), and if you're a stats-nerd he also led them in ISO (.233), wRC+ (133), and wOBA (.365). At 21 years old, his best years are ahead of him, and he's worth the first round investment people are paying in drafts.

Tier Two: No changes in the order of these studs since our last edition. Bogaerts (.320) and Lindor (.313) finished first and second in AVG among SS, respectively. Bogaerts was helped by a .372 BABIP (tops among SS) while Lindor was hitting .223 before a .345 second half with 44 runs, 42 RBI, and 11 steals. Xander is the safer play, but if Lindor slips past the fifth round you need to make your fellow league mates pay.

The player in this group with the highest upside is Corey Seager. Seager immediately became the Dodgers No. 3 hitter and was a monster, compiling a .337/.425/.561 slash in just 113 plate appearances. His numbers were inflated by a 45.6% hard hit rate, but his plate discipline (12.4% BB%) and minor league track record give me confidence his short stint was not a fluke.

Tier Three: Again, no major changes here. If Ian Desmond ends up in Colorado he will solidify his ranking, although I don't see him jumping any players in Tier Two. There's no player with a wider range in this group than Brandon Crawford. He's ranked as high as 3 and as low as 15, with the majority placing him in the 6-8 range. His 84 RBI paced all shortstops. His 21 HR were second behind Correa, although it'll be difficult for him to sustain that pace. His 16.2 HR/FB % was double his career average (8.2%). If pitchers are smart they'll lay off the fastball and feed him offspeed offerings; Crawford's 8.2 wFB was third among SS (minimum 400 PA) while he whiffed more than 20% on offspeed and breaking pitches according to BrooksBaseball. Jung-ho Kang is uncertain for Opening Day and his ranking reflects that. If he is deemed ready, move him ahead of Desmond.

Tier Four: Call this the "potential group". We're in consensus that Addison Russell can become an elite shortstop thanks to his glove, although that doesn't help us in fantasy terms. He still shows strong power (13 HR) but if he can't improve his average versus lefties (.156) and his plate discipline (28.5% K% ; second-worst among SS) he'll have trouble moving up the rankings.

My favorite in this group is Brad Miller. He produced a 11/13 HR/SB campaign in 2015 and will be given the everyday job at short for the Rays. Add in his multi-position eligibility (2B, OF) in some formats and he's an excellent mid-to-late round pick. A lot of pundits are on Eugenio Suarez, but given his lack of speed (4 SB) and high BABIP (.341), I'm anticipating a regression in average in 2016. Give me Miller over Suarez.

Tier Five: If you've waited this long to draft a shortstop, you're not out of luck just yet. Ketel Marte was excellent in 57 games last year, slashing .283/.351/.402 with 25 R and 8 SB. At 22 he'll be handed the Mariners starting shortstop position, although his fantasy value will be contingent on where new manager Scott Servais places him in the order. Norichika Aoki and Leonys Martin are competitors for the leadoff spot.

Another player worth targeting is Starlin Castro. Castro has failed to live up to the hype he carried when he entered the league, but perhaps his downfall coincided with playing on forgettable ball clubs. Getting his first taste of a postseason race, Castro hit .369 in September. Now he joins a Yankees rotation where the pressure is always on.

I have nothing for Jose Reyes fans. My best advice is tread lightly if you're draft is before his ruling and anticipate the worst (50 games) in your projections.

Tier Six: This is where things get dicey. Trea Turner is the Nationals best offensive prospect and Danny Espinosa is not the answer at short, but Dusty Baker tends to lean on veterans over rookies. Although he struggled upon his call-up to the Nats (.225 average in 44 AB), he hit .322 across three minor league assignments. If Turner puts together a monster spring, look for him to start Opening Day.

Jose Iglesias' .303 average was third among qualified SS, although he doesn't bring much else to the fantasy table. On the opposite side of the spectrum is J.J. Hardy, who has double-digit power potential (he averaged 25 HR from '11-'13) although he's seen a steady decline in average and plate discipline. Try not to let your SS spot come to this.

Tier Seven: These options are better suited for MI-slots in deeper formats, but there's value to be found. Eduardo Escobar smacked 12 HR with a .262/.309/.445 slash and was named the starting shortstop for the Twins. Consider him a less-touted Addison Russell. The Reds are going struggle in 2016 but Zack Cozart should see plenty of playing time. He showed solid power (12.9 HR/FB %) before suffering a season-ending knee injury. With Jose Peraza waiting in the wings, I'd be cautious investing come draft day.

Tier Eight: Nothing to see here. Jedd Gyorko's 16 HR will play in fantasy leagues, but he's a part of a clogged Cardinals infield that will require an injury for him to be useful. J.P. Crawford should make his debut sometime in 2016, although his plate discipline (12.1 BB%) and excellent defense do little to contribute in 5x5 formats. The players in this tier can be utilized if they go on a hot streak but can go undrafted in shallow leagues.

 

Shortstop Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (February)

Ranking	Tier	Name	Brad	Max	Kyle	Nick	Harris	Jeff	Bill
1	1	Carlos Correa	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	2	Troy Tulowitzki	4	2	2	2	2	2	2
3	2	Xander Bogaerts	3	3	3	3	5	3	5
4	2	Francisco Lindor	2	5	4	5	3	4	6
5	2	Corey Seager	7	4	5	4	4	5	7
6	3	Ian Desmond	5	6	6	8	6	6	4
7	3	Brandon Crawford	6	7	7	7	8	15	3
8	3	Jhonny Peralta	8	8	8	9	9	9	8
9	3	Jung-ho Kang	13	10	12	6	7	11	9
10	4	Addison Russell	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
11	4	Brad Miller	14	9	13	12	13	8	12
12	4	Eugenio Suarez	9	12	9	11	16	16	11
13	4	Marcus Semien	12	13	11	13	17	12	13
14	5	Ketel Marte	11	14	14	15	14	17	18
15	5	Jose Reyes	22	17	16	18	12	7	14
16	5	Elvis Andrus	15	15	15	14	19	13	16
17	5	Starlin Castro	16	16	17	16	11	19	20
18	5	Alcides Escobar	19	18	21	17	22	14	19
19	6	Trea Turner	26	22	20	20	15	18	15
20	6	Jed Lowrie	17	19	18	19	26	29	17
21	6	Erick Aybar	23	21	22	23	23	26	22
22	6	Alexei Ramirez	24	24	26	26	21	20	28
23	6	Jean Segura	33	23	29	25	20	24	24
24	6	Jose Iglesias	30	27	28	29	24	21	29
25	6	J.J. Hardy	18	20	33	21	40	23	33
26	7	Eduardo Escobar	21	29	25	28	32	30	25
27	7	Wilmer Flores	28	30	27	30	28	27	21
28	7	Asdrubal Cabrera	29	34	32	22	18	25	32
29	7	Zack Cozart	20	31	23	24	39	32	23
30	7	Javier Baez	-	26	31	34	25	22	-
31	7	Jimmy Rollins	27	28	19	32	27	28	34
32	7	Andrelton Simmons	31	25	24	33	31	31	26
33	7	Didi Gregorius	25	33	34	27	30	-	30
34	7	Adeiny Hechavarria	32	32	30	31	33	33	31
35	8	Jordy Mercer	34	35	35	35	41	-	-
36	8	Jedd Gyorko	-	36	-	-	29	-	-
37	8	J.P. Crawford	-	38	-	-	34	-	-
38	8	Jose Ramirez	-	37	-	-	35	-	-
39	8	Nick Ahmed	-	41	-	-	36	-	-
40	8	Jonathan Villar	-	39	-	-	37	-	-
41	8	Tyler Saladino	-	40	-	-	38	-	-

 

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