What To Expect from Miami's Jarvis Landry in 2015

2014 exceeded expectations for Landry by almost all accounts, but it also left a lot to be desired for his future outlook. At 5’11 and 200 pounds, Landry isn’t much of a downfield threat with a forty time in the 4.7 range and his small body frame, but he made up for his body limitations with excellent route running and a strong late season rapport with Ryan Tannehill. During the 2014 season, Landry caught 84 balls on 105 targets, an 80% catch rate (far away the best in the AFC East) for 755 yards.  77% of his receptions came in the slot.

However, he managed a disappointing 9 yards per catch on those receptions, 6th worst among wide receivers (and worst among players with 35 catches or more). What’s even more interesting is that over 400 of those yards came after the catch, meaning that Landry averaged his receptions only 4 yards past the line of scrimmage, an extremely worrying stat for his fantasy potential.  Landry also never had a 100 yard game, and he totaled 5 touchdowns, with 4 coming after week 9.

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Taking a Look at 2014

In 2014, the Dolphins ranked 12th in passing attempts (37 per game), and 17th in passing yards (4500).  They also ranked 22nd in rushing attempts despite being 2nd in yards per attempt.  While that number is slightly bloated due to Tannehill’s rushes, it’s still an indication that the Dolphins may show more interested in running more this next season to due to their heavy success rate.

Even though the Dolphins are hesitant to use Lamar Miller in a heavy role (evidenced by less than 15 carries in most of his games), the drafting of Jay Ajayi provides them with a true 1-2 punch to use.  That in itself limits the number of passing attempts for Tannehill to make, limiting the target potential of Landry to the 100-130 range range once again, a concern for his non-PPR value given his limited downfield ability.

There were over 300 targets last year that went towards Mike Wallace, Charles Clay, Brandon Gibson, and Brian Hartline.  Those numbers should be very similar for Tannehills new targets as well unless DeVante Parker experiences a true breakout year.  Kenny Stills, while finally starting for the first time, is still expected to be a compliment due to his limited ability outside of the deep ball.  He should more-so be a cheap Mike Wallace replacement in this offense.  Jordan Cameron is an incredible athlete with field stretching ability, and he should have a defined role in the middle of the field and the red zone.  His presence does put a slight drain on Landry’s yardage numbers, as he should see a majority of the Dolphins looks up the seam, limiting Landry to his bread and butter quick slants and flats.

Landry's 2015 Outlook

Greg Jennings will most likely not see a defined role this year, who will probably begin to lose snaps once DeVante Parker is healthy.  He’s not expected to see heavy use and he won’t eat into Landry’s snaps.  Parker, once healthy, should provide the Dolphins with a strong chain mover and red zone presence on the outside.  However, he’s not expected to have a major impact his rookie year, especially with the foot injury sidelining him this whole offseason.  His snaps won’t have any effect on Landry since they play different positions.

Projecting next year, I expect Landry’s targets to slightly increase to the 125 range next year to match his second half production of 2014.  If his catch rate remains high (which it should given his skillset and the nature of the slot position), he should see about 100 catches, which gives him a massive boost in PPR.  However, I expect his yardage and TD numbers to remain similar given his relatively defined and limited role in this new Dolphins offense.  The fact that he averages his catches less than 5 yards from the line of scrimmage is a huge worry for me, as that targets are more-so quick throws from Tannehill that don’t normally lead to huge yards after the catch numbers.  Landry should be an asset as a consistent WR2 in PPR, and someone to target as a low-level WR3 option in standard.

Prediction: 100 catches, 1050 yards 6 touchdowns 

This would put Landry as the #15 PPR receiver in 2014, but the #25 receiver in standard.  Given his current ADP of #24 at the wide receiver position in PPR, in consider him a great value pick that should provide you with a highly consistent option who is as close to a lock at 10+ point each week as there is. I’d consider him a better option than players drafted ahead of him such as Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, Amari Cooper, and Keenan Allen.  I’d slot him in with Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews in the WR 19-21 range. If Landry stays healthy, this should be his floor.

His ADP of #29 in standard is probably on par with where he should be.

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