Fantasy NBA: The Kobe Conundrum

January 16, 2015

Lou Cappetta addresses what to do with Kobe Bryant going forward in fantasy basketball leagues in 2014-15.

I am a Kobe Bryant fantasy basketball owner.

If you can relate to that statement this season, then you undoubtedly feel my pain. It has been a long season in Laker land this year, and Bryant has not been immune to the effects of the dumpster fire that has been the Lakers' season thus far.

At first glance, Bryant's averages of 22.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.7 assist per game are fantasy gold. After all, there aren't many players in the NBA who can put up a 20-5-5 season. In fact, as of January 15, the only other players to post per game averages of at leats 20 points, five rebounds and five assists besides the Laker legend are Lebron James, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Blake Griffin (with Stephen Curry and Kyle Lowry barely missing the cut at 4.9 rebounds per game). That's pretty exclusive company, especially when you factor in Bryant's terrific 81.3 percent free throw shooting on 7.1 attempts per game (good for 8th best in the NBA).

All you have to do is dig a bit deeper, and it's easy to understand why Bryant is barely holding on to top 100 value in fantasy leagues. His efficiency has benn putrid, as he is currently shooting 37.2 percent from the field and 29.6 percent from three, on an exorbitant 20.6 (most in the NBA) and 5.3 shots per game, respectively. Those numbers are going to sink any players value, and for those of you who play in leagues that penalize for turnovers, as I do, then Bryant's 3.6 giveaways per game are another pitfall you've had to deal with.

All of the signs pointed to the Lakers' season being one big Kobe chuck fest, unless you really believed guys like Carlos Boozer and Jeremy Lin were going to forget that their not good. Still, who would have predicted Bryant's shooting would be this poor? On my team, I made sure to take high field goal percentage guys in James and Andre Drummond before I selected Kobe with my third pick, thinking those two would compensate for Bryant's lack of efficiency, and I still have ended up dead last in my roto league's field goal percentage category.

At the beginning of the season, Kobe owners could somewhat justify plugging him into lineups every night due to his gaudy scoring and free throw numbers. You live with the inefficiency if it nets you a 35 point, five rebound night that sees number 24 also go 9 of 10 from the charity stripe with a few assists and a steal thrown in. Now, however, with coach Byron Scott doing his Greg Popovich impression with Bryant's playing time, a steadily dropping usage rate (36.3% in November, 28.1% in January), and constant talk of Bryant being shut down once the Lakers feel they are completely out of it (which could be any day), it's hard to justify owning Bryant unless you're in the deepest of leagues.

Then again, he is Bryant, and just when you are fed up and about to hit the drop button, as I was after he shot a miserable 3-for-19 (2-for-9 from three) against the Miami Heat, he comes out with a 19 point, 17 assist double-double while going 7-for-14 from the field, and all is well. Then reality hits again as he's immediately ruled out of Friday nights' game since it is the second contest of a back-to-back. Now if this paragraph doesn't sum up the peaks and valleys of being a Kobe Bryant owner this year, I don't know what does.

So where does a Bryant owner go from here? Good question, and it's one I have been asking myself for the better part of the last month. There are only three options, and at this point of the season, none are exactly ideal.

Trade Kobe

If you can afford to lose what Bryant provides in the free throw and scoring categories, numbers that are rarely found in anyone who isn't an earl-round draft selection, then this may be your best bet. If you can find a taker for him, then please tell me what's your secret.

So far this year, I have shopped Kobe to just about every team in my league, especially teams with scoring deficiencies, and have had zero takers. Finally at the end of my rope, I angrily offered him in a straight-up deal for Enes Kanter, a late round big man who doesn't block shots,  just to get him off of my team, and it got rejected. Yes, you read that right, ENES KANTER!

After cooler heads prevailed, I was glad the trade got rejected, but the experience really put Bryant's value into perspective for me. My league is only 10 teams, so in my opinion, Kanter is a guy who is borderline rosterable, so in other words, if you are able to find a guy willing to trade for Kobe, expect to get 10-20 cents on the dollar.

Drop Kobe

Holding onto a player because of name recognition or reputation can kill any fantasy season, so I wouldn't call anyone crazy who considered dropping Kobe at this point. Had there been anyone on my waiver wire I even remotely liked, I probably would have done it after the Miami game.

With that said, unless there is a guy out there you really want, if you are considering dropping Kobe, it's probably because you're worried about a shut down o are in a tight battle in the field goal percentage or turnover categories.

If you want to drop Bryant, targeting a guy coming off of an injury that may have been dropped, like Kevin Martin, Ricky Rubio, or  DeMar DeRozan may not be a bad idea. If you do let Kobe go, just remember, that unless your league is incredibly shallow, his name alone means that someone is going to roll the dice on him, meaning you could be watching him turn it around for a team that ultimately finishes ahead of you.

Keep Kobe

Remember, the basketball season is a marathon not a sprint, and there is still roughly half of the season left for Bryant to return to form.

Sure his numbers have been frustrating, especially of late with his scoring numbers and usage rate down this month, but there is still some value here.

Yes, this month Bryant is averaging only 14 points per game on 34.2 percent shooting (his worst shooting month this season), and he's not really getting to the foul line, but his he has cut his number of shots taken by almost a third compared to his season average. Believe it or not, as frustrating as his scoring and shooting numbers have been this month, the rest of his game has been good.

His three turnovers, 1.8 threes made, and 36 percent three point shooting are the best totals he's has in any month this season (not counting his three game October). He's also averaging close to a triple-double adding season best averages of seven boards and nine assists to go with his 14 points per game. If those numbers came from a guy like Rubio or Rajon Rondo, fantasy owners would take that in a second.

Yes there is the possibility of Kobe being shut down for the year at some point, but there's also a chance that the added rest, combined with the upcoming All-Star break, could help Bryant have a much better second half. Remember, Kobe is an ultra competitive guy who missed most of last season. I wouldn't be surprised if Kobe is accepting this regular rest so he doesn't have to be shut down early.

After much thought, I'm going to probably live and die with Kobe the rest of the way, and put my money on him turning it around, unless I get offered a trade that will help me.

Any way you slice it, owning Kobe has been a roller coaster ride so far. What you do from here is all about perspective, and if you think he can turn it around. While he's not living up to his draft day position, he's still has some value. Whatever you decide, make sure your decision is made with a clear head and not because you're in panic mode. Good luck.