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Mike's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 12 of 2025. His college football picks with confidence points -- expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
I got the top four picks last week, which constitutes an improvement in recent weeks. Riley and TitanicTiNk led the group with 44 points last week. spartans4627 ended with 43 points. 12 more entries broke 40 points. I ended up with 39, which I'll take.
Ilene moved into first place with 418 points on the back of a 42-point week. JBTiger83 is in second place with 414 points. Bullgator sits in third with 411 points. Eight more entries are at or above 400, so it's still pretty tight at the top.
10 entries are in the 390 range, and eight more entries are in the 380 range. That's still about 25 entries within 30 points of first place. There are only three weeks left, including this week. Let's make them count!
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article will be about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks on RotoBaller every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Good luck out there, RotoBallers!
(1) Pittsburgh over Notre Dame
Of Notre Dame’s seven wins, three have come against the last place teams in the ACC, Big Ten and SEC - Boston College, Purdue and Arkansas - teams that are a combined 0-18 in league play and 5-24 overall (only two of those five wins game against an FBS team).
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 10, 2025
If you look at most of the top-ranked teams this year, they all have something in common: they either can't run or can't stop the run. For some of them, it's both. Notre Dame is one of the better running teams in college football this year.
The bad news is that Pitt allows just 80.9 rushing yards per game and is only allowing 2.39 yards per carry. That isn't just good, it's elite. The 80.9 rush yards per game is third in FBS. That means Pitt is going to force CJ Carr to beat them.
This is another instance where the public is very heavy on the favorite (89%). Vegas (-11.5 Notre Dame) and FPI (77.3% Notre Dame) don't give Pitt much of a chance. Their rush defense at least gives Pitt a puncher's chance to win this. I'll try to steal a point on it.
(2) East Carolina over Memphis
ECU is a 3.5-point favorite in Vegas, which is a fairly significant number. FPI only has ECU at 51.9%, but this is exactly my point. Vegas and the metrics have East Carolina winning this game. The public is 79% on Memphis. This is the perfect place to gain points. I may even move this up.
(3) Oklahoma over Alabama
11 Win Seasons Since 2000:
-Oklahoma 16
-Alabama 15These are two of the best programs in college football this century.
— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) November 9, 2025
No one, including myself, gave Oklahoma a chance in this game last year. It likely kept the Tide out of the CFP. There's not as much riding on it for the Tide this year. Truth be told, the SEC is probably hoping for an Alabama loss.
That would likely put Oklahoma in the field and give Alabama a home game in the first round of the CFP. Oklahoma winning out is the best chance of the SEC getting five teams in. You can bet the league office is well aware of this.
FPI (71.6%) isn't giving Oklahoma much of a chance, but look at all of those long home winning streaks that have come to an end this year. Georgia, Washington, and Boise all fell at home, ending win streaks of over a dozen games. Let's see if Oklahoma can stop Alabama's streak.
(4) Duke over Virginia
Chandler Morris is still in concussion protocol and has not practiced yet this week, but he is listed on the depth chart for this game. That doesn't mean a lot. He still has to be cleared. However, that does show that Virginia expects him to play.
It's a different story out in the desert. Vegas has Duke as a 5.5-point favorite. There's no way that's the line if they think Morris is playing. Vegas isn't afraid to do this with initial lines, though. They're content to set it here to get the bets of people who hope to catch a better line if Morris plays.
The public money will adjust the line later. The interesting thing here is that FPI favors Duke at 60.7%. FPI isn't known for factoring in injuries. That means FPI likes Duke even with a healthy Morris. That's good enough for me, especially with 64% of Pick Em players picking the Cavs.
(5) Kennesaw State over Jacksonville State
The public is 54% on the Gamecocks. FPI likes them to defend their turf at 48.9%. Vegas is the difference here. The line has jumped two points in favor of Kennesaw already to 3.5 points. Sharp money is coming on the Owls. I'm following that!
(6) San Diego State over Boise State
The Aztecs got lit up on the islands after most were asleep on Saturday night, effectively ending the playoff hopes for SDSU and the Mountain West. This game means little now, but it still could be a Mountain West Championship Game preview.
San Diego State only allowed 93.1 rush yards per game. That's 10th in FBS. The Aztecs allow just 264.2 total yards of offense per game. That's sixth in FBS. This is still an elite defense, and Boise has almost no chance of handling it, especially on the road.
(7) USC over Iowa
Iowa allows just 250.2 yards per game. That's fourth in FBS. The Hawkeyes have held both Oregon and Indiana in check, two of the more potent offenses in the Big Ten. However, both of those games were in Iowa City.
I'm nervous enough about this one to move it down. The public is very heavy on USC. If I had any belief whatsoever in the Iowa offense, I would attempt to steal points.
(8) BYU over TCU
There are some who think that TCU can hang around with BYU. Vegas does, with the Cougars only favored by 4.5 points. FPI tells a different story, with BYU favored at 73.8%. TCU's defense isn't anywhere near the caliber of Texas Tech's. That's what gave the Cougars problems in Lubbock.
That's another thing...except for the opener against North Carolina, TCU has been terrible on the road. They lost to Arizona State, were blown out by Kansas State, and struggled with West Virginia. This should be an easy pick.
(9) Cincinnati over Arizona
Arizona's pass defense is elite (sixth in FBS at 160.1 yards per game), but the rush defense can be had. We also saw a top-notch pass defense in Nebraska hold Brendan Sorsby under 100 passing yards, so he ran for triple digits. The same scenario plays out here.
The Cincinnati offensive line and Tawee Walker have improved since that Nebraska game. Sorsby is still doing it all. Arizona will force the Bearcats to win on the ground. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Cincinnati is capable of doing that.
(10) Georgia over Texas
Wild but true:
Texas has been in the SEC for 18 months and is about to play Georgia for the third time.
Texas A&M has been in the conference for 14 years and has played Georgia once.
— HornSports (@HornSports) November 9, 2025
If you ever wondered why most fans were (and still are) against super-mega-big-ass conferences, this is why. Anyone who loves football hates this. But since we're dealing with the task at hand, Texas had two cracks at Georgia last year, once with Gunner Stockton for a half, and still couldn't do it.
Texas's defense is better than last year, but Georgia's offense is a lot better. The Bulldogs are running the ball well, and Stockton turns the ball over a lot less than Carson Beck. The Texas offense is worse, but so is the Georgia defense.
Teams have had success against Texas when they get after Arch Manning. Georgia isn't getting pressure on quarterbacks this year, which is why they lost to Alabama. If this game were in Austin, I might believe that Texas wins. In Athens, I highly doubt it.
FPI has the Bulldogs as a slight favorite (59.8%) coming off the most complete game since Week 1 against Marshall. Vegas is more of a believer in Georgia, favoring the Dawgs by 6.5 points.
