NFL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Bills vs. Patriots Sunday Night Showdown

October 4, 2025

Dawn Tepper's top NFL DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel -- Bills vs. Patriots SNF slate for Week 5 Sunday Night Football (Oct. 5, 2025). Her NFL daily fantasy sleeper picks.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! I’m Dawn Tepper, covering for Koby Hanson for the Sunday Night Football Showdown Slate! At first glance, this seems like a blowout in the making, but can the Patriots keep things close enough to garner some sneaky points? Let's find out!

Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang, and get right to it.

I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday Night Football in Week 5 -- Bills vs. Patriots on October 5, 2025. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks. 

MVP/Captain - NFL DFS Lineup Picks

James Cook - RB, $17.1K (DK), $18.5K (FD)

Cook finds himself in what might be the single best matchup of Week Five. The number one rushing offense in football meeting the 31st rushing defense isn't just a favorable spot - it's a potential bloodbath. Buffalo has accumulated 654 rushing yards and leads the entire league with 9 rushing touchdowns through four games.

The Patriots aren't just bad against the run - they're historically awful at preventing explosive plays. New England allows explosive runs (10+ yards) on 23.9% of carries, which ranks dead last in the NFL. Buffalo's offensive line is creating 372 yards before contact (second-best in football), while the Patriots' defense is allowing 322 yards before contact (second-worst). Cook doesn't even need to break tackles - the holes are already there.

With the Bills projected to win by 8.5 points and likely controlling this game from the second quarter on, Cook should see 20+ touches in a positive game environment. At $11,400 (DK), he's expensive, but it's a great leverage spot over Josh Allen.

Drake Maye - QB, $15.0K (DK), $18.9K (FD)

You might have been expecting to see Josh Allen in this spot, but we all know he's the chalky pick, and if you are playing cash games, he's your guy. But, if you are in tournaments, Drake May is the ultimate contrarian play. Yes, he's facing Buffalo's 10th-ranked defense (DVOA), but dig deeper into Buffalo's pass defense stats and you'll find something interesting: they're allowing 966 passing yards (#26 in NFL) and 7.7 yards per attempt (#29). The DVOA suggests elite, but the actual production says exploitable.

Drake Maye has had a 75+ completion percentage and thrown 2+ TD passes in each of the last 3 games 🔥

Only Tom Brady (Weeks 1-4 in his first MVP season in 2007) has had a longer such streak within a single season in NFL history pic.twitter.com/04vZ4zfdkJ

— NFL+ (@NFLPlus) September 28, 2025

The game script is everything for Maye. The Patriots are 8.5-point underdogs with just a 26.1% win probability, which means they'll be trailing most of this game and forced to throw 35-40 times. Maye already has a 62.8% pass rate, and that number skyrockets when playing from behind. Add in garbage time in the fourth quarter when Buffalo is sitting on a lead, and suddenly Maye's path to 250+ yards and 2 touchdowns becomes very realistic.

The mobile QB factor is huge here. Buffalo generates a 40.7% pressure rate (#1 in the NFL), which means Maye will be scrambling all night. Young mobile quarterbacks create fantasy value with their legs, and Maye should rack up 40-60 rushing yards with legitimate rushing touchdown upside.

Other Captains/MVPs: Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir

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Flex Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Dalton Kincaid - TE, $7.4K (DK), $12.9K (FD)

While everyone loads up on Shakir and Coleman, Kincaid quietly gets 5-7 targets per game in an offense that loves to spread the ball around. The key here is that Allen doesn't have a true alpha receiver. Buffalo has nine rushing touchdowns but only seven passing touchdowns, which means they're finding the end zone in multiple ways. Kincaid is a legitimate red zone threat, especially in the middle of the field, where the Patriots have been vulnerable to tight ends.

Where Dalton Kincaid ranks on the Bills through four games ⬇️

Receiving Yards: 3rd (179)
Targets: 2nd (18)
Receptions: 3rd (14)
Receiving Touchdowns: 1st (3)
Targeted Passer Rating: 2nd (147.7)#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/3DNQdxTajA

— Buffalo Sports Talk (@BUFSportsTalk) September 30, 2025

The ownership angle is what makes this play shine. Everyone will be rostering the chalk WRs, but Kincaid gives you the Bills' passing game correlation with Allen at a discount. His 16.87 ceiling is real if he finds the end zone, and in large-field GPPs where you need differentiation, pairing Allen with Kincaid instead of Shakir/Coleman is the exact type of pivot that wins tournaments.

Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, $4.8K (DK), $10.8K (FD)

Stevenson has a rock-solid 15+ touch floor regardless of game script. Buffalo's run defense is elite (#2, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry), but volume is king in DFS. Stevenson will get his carries, he'll catch 3-5 balls in the passing game, and in garbage time when the Patriots are down double digits, he's the check-down king. His 18.18 ceiling isn't fantasy - one touchdown and he absolutely smashes value at this price.

The leverage comes in how you use him. In contrarian builds with Maye at captain or when you're fading the popular Allen + Cook + Shakir stack, Stevenson becomes essential. He pairs beautifully with the Bills DST ($4.2K) to give you $9,000 of salary relief, allowing you to spend up on the studs. Sometimes the best leverage isn't fading the obvious play - it's recognizing when the "too obvious" guy gets overthought and under-rostered because people think he's chalky. Stevenson fits every build, so don't get cute.

Other Flex Options: Mack Hollins, Patriots D/ST (high-scoring games = points for either DEF)

Value Plays - NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Buffalo D/ST, $4.2K (DK), $6.6K (FD)

The Bills' defense is the value play that everyone should have in their lineups tonight. At just $4,200, you're getting one of the top defenses in football going against a Patriots offense that ranks dead last in passing DVOA at -15.9%. Buffalo is projected to score 28.57 points while holding New England to just 18.83, which sets up perfectly for a defense to feast.

The matchup advantages are everywhere. Buffalo generates pressure at a 40.7% rate, which ranks first in the entire NFL. Drake Maye is a mobile quarterback, and when you combine elite pass rush with a young QB under duress, sacks and turnovers become inevitable. The Patriots will be trailing most of this game, forcing Maye to drop back 35-40 times in obvious passing situations.

DeMario Douglas - WR, $2K (DK), $4.2K (FD)

Douglas is your minimum-price punt play that actually has legitimate upside. At $2,000, he gives you Patriots exposure without burning salary on Diggs or Henry. Douglas operates out of the slot, which means he's Maye's check-down option when Buffalo's pressure inevitably collapses the pocket.

The game script couldn't be better for Douglas. When the Patriots are down 14-17 points in the fourth quarter and desperately trying to move the ball, who's getting peppered with targets? The slot receiver. Douglas should see 6-8 targets in garbage time alone, and in PPR format, that's valuable. Five catches for 40 yards gives you nine fantasy points - that's 4.5x value at minimum price. His 11.28 ceiling is absurd for $2K, and it only takes one broken tackle on a screen pass to hit it.

Other Value Options: Jackson Hawes, Matt Prater

More DFS Analysis and Lineup Picks