Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for Bo Nix, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Ladd McConkey, Cedric Tillman, Cade Otton

November 2, 2024

Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 9 of 2024. He looks at surprising performances from Bo Nix, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Ladd McConkey, Cedric Tillman, Cade Otton.

Week 8 of the NFL is behind us, and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the eighth week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous week were better than expected. I'll analyze their games and consider what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 8. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?

Bo Nix - QB, Denver Broncos

Week 8 stats: 28-of-37 for 284 yards and three touchdowns, five carries for four yards and one touchdown - overall QB2

While the rookie showdown of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels got all the attention this weekend, the best rookie quarterback showing came from Denver's Bo Nix, who threw a career-high three touchdowns in a 28-14 win over the Carolina Panthers.

Nix got off to a slow start to his career, failing to throw a touchdown in his first three games, but he's improved since, tossing multiple scores in three of the past four games.

Bo Nix’s ball placement is ELITE.

Denver has their franchise QB for the next 10+ YEARS 🔥 pic.twitter.com/0mtwdadYvR

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) October 27, 2024

The Broncos have themselves a good quarterback in Nix, but I'm not quite ready to trust him in fantasy. While he's an accurate and mobile passer, he still needs to work on his deep ball before he can be a consistent threat. Per PlayerProfiler, Nix ranks 26th in the NFL in deep-ball completion percentage and 23rd in deep-ball accuracy rating.

Nix is an ascending player, but don't expect games like this one to happen consistently.

Verdict: Fiction

Tyrone Tracy Jr. - RB, New York Giants

Week 8 stats: 20 carries for 145 yards, one touchdown, two receptions for five yards - overall RB3

I wrote about Tyrone Tracy Jr. earlier this season after a couple of really good games in a row and concluded he was for real. But in Week 7, he slipped a bit, carrying the ball six times for 23 yards in a loss to the Eagles.

But this week was a major bounce back for Tracy, who had 20 carries for 145 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers.

This was the week that Tracy fully took this backfield from Devin Singletary, with 20 carries to Singletary's two. Both players had three targets.

There was concern that Singletary would retake the No. 1 running back spot once he returned and it was true that the two players had a fairly even split of work in Singletary's first game back. But Week 8 featured Tracy firmly grabbing the job.

He's a fantasy RB2 play going forward. He has the talent to run for 100-plus yards any weekend, but the Giants offense can be a bit of a mess, so there will be some dud weeks.

Verdict: Fact

Ladd McConkey - WR, Los Angeles Chargers

Week 8 stats: six catches for 111 yards and two touchdowns - overall WR2

This is a special wide receiver class. But when people talk about that, they're mainly focused on Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Brian Thomas Jr.

Chargers second-round pick Ladd McConkey isn't at that level, but he's shown some promising signs this season, including an explosive Week 8 game in which he caught all six of his targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns.

Ladd McConkey's Week 8 film is sweet. You really see all of the skills (route running, stemming off routes to make an easy target, ball-tracking, YAC) that made him a great prospect translate to the NFL.

And I think you really see Herbert's immense trust in him on display on… pic.twitter.com/d4QHWQmM9G

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) October 28, 2024

McConkey popped on the tape this week, making big play after big play. He's been able to consistently beat press coverage and plays in an offense that has recently been rededicating itself to the passing game.

Since coming out of the bye week, Justin Herbert has avg. 35 pass atts/game vs the first 4 weeks averaging just 22 pass atts/game.

Ladd McConkey has been a top-15 WR in FP/G since.

The arrow is pointing up for Ladd.

Love bye week adjustments.🚀

— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) October 29, 2024

On the other hand, this was just the second time all year that McConkey had over 50 yards in a game and his longest play of this game was more yards than he had in all but one game this season.

McConkey is on the rise, but I'm not sold quite yet on this being an every-week occurrence.

Verdict: Fiction ... but I'm starting to believe.

Cedric Tillman - WR, Cleveland Browns

Week 8 stats: seven receptions for 99 yards and two touchdowns - overall WR3

The Browns started Jameis Winston at quarterback this week after Deshaun Watson tore his Achilles, and the Browns passing attack finally had some juice. And with competent quarterback play, the Browns suddenly looked so much more interesting.

Winston provided a much-needed boost in the team's 29-24 win over Baltimore and the team's three main receivers all had strong days. Cedric Tillman had the strongest of all, hauling in seven of his nine targets for 99 yards and two scores.

Our patience has paid off fellow Cedric Tillman truthers 👏 pic.twitter.com/7Pj5eL4DlL

— Matt Hicks (@TheFF_Educator) October 27, 2024

Since Amari Cooper was traded, Tillman has 21 targets. While Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore are both playing well, Tillman certainly looks like he's serving as the No. 1 receiver in a very much improved offense.

Verdict: Fact

Cade Otton - TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 8 stats: nine receptions for 81 yards and two touchdowns - overall TE2

With Mike Evans out for a bit and Chris Godwin out of a lot of bits, the talk about the Buccaneers was who would emerge as the top receiver out of Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and the team's other ancillary receivers.

And of those names, the answer is probably McMillan, but the real right answer is tight end Cade Otton, who has been targeted 20 times over the past two games.

One game with a huge volume is one thing. Two in a row, though? That's a sign of something. The third-year tight end is right at the beginning of a breakout. He's a low-end TE1 play going forward because of his role in Tampa and the production he's shown so far.

Verdict: Fact

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