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Adam Koffler identifies four fantasy football RBs who are set to lose touches in 2024. Use caution when drafting these players in your fantasy football drafts.
Over the last decade or so, we’ve seen a shift in the way running backs are valued in the NFL. Heck, they used to be top-10 draft picks. Now, a third-round pick is considered premium draft capital when talking about running backs. While the phenomenon is relatively new, running backs have always had the youngest peak age relative to other positions.
In fact, the data shows they peak at 24 years old. That’s right, 24. They can still be productive through their age 26, 27, or even 28 season, but after that, all bets are off. There are exceptions to the rule, but generally speaking, running backs in their upper 20s are seeing a significant decrease in their workload year-over-year until retirement.
This article highlights four of those veteran running backs set to lose touches in 2024. It could just be naturally as a result of aging, or maybe there’s a younger, more explosive back on the roster. Either way, these backs’ opportunities will be lower this season than in previous seasons. These four running backs can still be productive, but their ceiling might not be quite as high as it used to be.
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Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
In his age-31 season, Raheem Mostert posted career highs in snap share (57.3%), red-zone touches (53), total touchdowns (21), and fantasy points per opportunity (1.11). He averaged 17 half-PPR points per game on just 11.7 weighted opportunities per game. For reference, Najee Harris averaged just 10.6 half-PPR points per game on 12.5 weighted opportunities per game. Mostert’s productivity last season was in a league of its own. That’s until you check out 22-year-old De'Von Achane’s productivity as a rookie.
Achane led all running backs with a whopping 1.36 fantasy points per opportunity in 2023. His efficiency was quite literally off the charts. He averaged 7.7 yards per touch and had a breakaway run rate of 12.6%. Those were both tops for the running back position. Given his efficiency, productivity, and age, it’s a near guarantee that Achane gets more work in his second NFL season. That will naturally come at the expense of Mostert, despite his incredible 2023 season.
De'Von Achane just had the most efficient rookie season ever, and could well be the next Alvin Kamara.
Among rookie RBs drafted Rounds 1-3 who outperformed their weighted opportunity by +2.5 PPG or more:
- 5/5 had a volume increase in Year 2
- 4/5 topped 20 PPG in Year 2 pic.twitter.com/t72wT3Q8Fr
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 12, 2024
The Dolphins also spent a fourth-round pick on Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright. Wright is essentially a Mostert clone, weighing in at 210 pounds on his 5-foot-10 frame with a 29.3 BMI. He ran a sub-4.40 40-yard dash, and just like Mostert, has a 95th percentile Burst Score (per PlayerProfiler).
While some toy with the thought that Wright is here as Achane insurance, it’s clear from his profile that the Dolphins brought him here to take over for Mostert. And that could very well start in 2024 should the 32-year-old tumble down the inevitable age cliff.
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
It was a tale of two seasons for David Montgomery in 2023. In four full games before a rib injury, he averaged 24.3 opportunities per game. When he returned after the bye, he averaged just 15.4 opportunities per game. That’s because rookie Jahmyr Gibbs became much more involved when Montgomery missed time and after the bye. The explosive Gibbs will continue to get more work this season.
#Lions GM Brad Holmes on Jahmyr Gibbs:
“I definitely would expect him to see more of a load, but David Montgomery will still be here, too. Dan [Campbell] and I love that 1-2 punch of him and David… I think he’s got much more to offer in the passing game, so most likely you’ll… pic.twitter.com/RXisJIVXZa
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 13, 2024
Montgomery will still be involved, as GM Brad Holmes explains. The Lions love the one-two punch that these two running backs provide them. It’s hard to ignore Gibbs having more red-zone touches than Montgomery from Week 10 on (28 vs. 26). Montgomery also saw his snap share decrease to 43% during that stretch of games. Why? Well, Gibbs morphed into a complete back and thus was utilized in more situations as he gained more trust from the Lions coaching staff. Check it out:
Jahmyr Gibbs is him.
The Detroit Lions RB established himself as one of the most explosive playmakers in the NFL.
I see him taking a jump next year 1500+ all purpose and 13+ total touchdowns.
He will cement himself as a TOP 5 RB in the NFL. #OnePride
pic.twitter.com/ijwMKrOc3C— Spencer Raxter (@Spenmorax) May 22, 2024
Montgomery will still churn out 50-70 yards per game on the ground with a good chance to score. If you look at last season, he found paydirt in 11 of 14 games played. So while you’re not going to get much of a ceiling with Montgomery in 2024, he can still provide you with a decent floor. In fact, he produced single-digit PPR points in just one of 14 games last season, and that was the game he left early with a quad injury.
He will surrender touches to Gibbs, but that doesn’t mean he’s completely useless in fantasy football given how explosive the Detroit offense is. If you’re shooting for the stars this season, there are other cheaper bets to make this season. Guys like Jaylen Warren, Zack Moss, Trey Benson, Tyjae Spears, and Jerome Ford all come to mind.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Last year, the Cardinals were content to head into the season with James Conner and a bunch of other mediocre running backs. This year, they’ve flipped the script by using premium draft capital on Florida State running back Trey Benson. At six feet even and 216 pounds, Benson ran a 4.39 40-yard dash, giving him a 98th-percentile speed score, per PlayerProfiler. Given his combination of size and speed, the Cardinals are getting a guy with the tools to be an every-down back.
Trey Benson for 6 pic.twitter.com/6ttAGuEnOJ
— Random College Football Plays (@PlaysCollege) May 21, 2024
Before Benson, Conner’s competition for touches was Chase Edmonds, Eno Benjamin, Darrel Williams, Keaontay Ingram, and Emari Demercado. That's not exactly the most stiff competition. And that has led to 17.6 opportunities per game over the last three seasons. But with Conner heading into his age-29 season, Arizona finally decided to get him some help.
While the touch split is yet to be seen, it’s clear the Cardinals want to keep Conner as fresh as possible for as many games as possible. He’s missed four games each of the last two seasons due to a multitude of injuries. The Cardinals are hopeful Benson can not only learn from Conner but help keep the veteran upright for as many games as possible in 2024. He’ll very much be used as a “complement” to Conner, says GM Monti Ossenfort:
#Cardinals GM Monti Ossenfort on rookie Trey Benson:
“I think Trey fits us from a schematic standpoint, in that he’s instinctive, he’s tough, he’s physical, he’s got good contact balance, he’s able to run through and gain tough yards.
“And then one thing that stands out about… pic.twitter.com/yPNrF4WgP1
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 7, 2024
Last season, Cardinals running backs averaged 26 opportunities per game, with Conner seeing 71% of them (18.5). With Arizona taking the second running back off the board in 2024, that number is almost guaranteed to decrease. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Benson handle at least 40-45% of the backfield work this season. And that’s assuming Conner doesn’t fall victim to the running back age cliff. There’s a world where the rookie outplays the veteran and takes over the backfield.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara was extremely inefficient last season as the Saints continued to use him in a role he’s not built for. Earlier in his career, Kamara was deployed more like Austin Ekeler, where over 35% of his opportunities came from targets. However, in the last few seasons, Kamara has only seen 26% of his opportunities come as targets. He’s been turned into a workhorse on the ground and it finally caught up to him in 2023.
Kamara was 46th among running backs in Juke Rate (14.9%) while averaging a career-low 4.5 yards per touch. His breakaway run rate remained under 3.3% for the third consecutive season. Enter Kendre Miller, the Saints’ third-round pick out of TCU in 2023. Miller dealt with injuries much of his rookie season, but he showed some promise in Week 18 vs. the Falcons. So much so that the Saints didn’t feel the need to draft another running back this year.
RB Kendre Miller saw 14 opps in Week 18 vs ATL.
He doesn't turn 22 for another 37 days. And if it helps your brain, include him in this year's rookie RB class after he missed 9 games last year. pic.twitter.com/oaWE0kSnfp
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) May 5, 2024
Kamara will be 29 when the 2024 season kicks off and it appears the heavy workloads have finally caught up to him. Even with the Saints scaling back his workload a touch in 2023, Kamara still posted the most inefficient year of his career. As long as Miller can stay healthy in his second season, Kamara is set to lose even more touches in 2024. It's not outlandish to think Miller could seize control of the rushing work in this offense given Kamara’s struggles on the ground the last few seasons.
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