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Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2024 Genesis Invitational.
Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Riviera CC. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Genesis Invitational outright betting card.
The three names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 22 outright winners (a 22.0% hit rate) for a profit of over $16,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 45.8%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Genesis Invitational!
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Genesis Invitational Betting Card
Patrick Cantlay (20-1)
Walking it in from off the green 🔥 @Patrick_Cantlay moves to 3-under after the birdie chip-in @TheGenesisInv. pic.twitter.com/igNGDiBpBG
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 16, 2023
Despite this signature event playing host to the biggest names on the PGA Tour, it's difficult to make a case that any of these guys arrive at Riviera in mid-season form. Patrick Cantlay, in particular, has caused a great deal of heartache for golf bettors this year, as he's developed a strange propensity for flying out of the blocks on Thursday and Friday before dropping an anchor at closing time.
I'm choosing to take a glass-half-full approach with Pat, particularly around a venue where he's as comfortable as anywhere else on the PGA Tour. Cantlay has spoken glowingly about his affinity for Riviera's design, and with two top-four finishes and no result worse than 33rd in six starts since 2018, his all-around game has proven to be a perfect fit for this demanding layout.
Cantlay is the only player in this field besides Scottie Scheffler to rank inside the top 20 in each of the three tee-to-green categories over his last 50 rounds. The 13 strokes he gained in a third-place finish here last year was the best performance we've seen out of Pat since his win at the 2021 Memorial.
There are certainly frailties to point to with the way he's come home from winning positions over the last few weeks, but I think we should take solace in the fact that Cantlay has at least shown glimpses of his projected upside at courses that we project him to play well at (Kapalua, Pebble Beach, PGA West). 20-1 at his favorite course on the PGA Tour schedule still figures to be quite a value on the seventh-ranked player in the world.
Max Homa (25-1)
This is how much it means to these guys. 💯
An emotional interview with Max Homa after falling just short at Riviera. pic.twitter.com/0CLeJFQdgk
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 20, 2023
Admittedly, there is an element of sentimentality with this selection of Max Homa at Riviera. We've made him a headline bet in each of his two previous starts in California (to muted success), but as the week has gone on and odds have drifted into the mid-20s, I'm willing to take one more shot on the SoCal kid to get it done at his home tournament.
As wonderful as that interview was, and as great of a story as it would be for Max to win his second Genesis title, this write-up isn't strictly narrative-driven either. Prior to Pebble Beach, Homa was one of the hottest players on the planet, racking up 10 consecutive top-15 finishes in a six-month span, including a win at the Nedbank Golf Challenge and a breakout performance as the top American points scorer in last fall's Ryder Cup. His performances in Monterey and Scottsdale were not up to his typical standard, but in uncertain weather conditions, playing from the wrong side of the draw in each of those two weeks, I think Max can be forgiven for a slight dip in form.
He'll certainly be as motivated as anyone in this field to turn things around at Riviera, a golf course in which he's enjoyed the greatest amount of sustained success in his career. Homa has finished no worse than 10th in four starts around this layout since 2020 -- which includes a victory in 2021 and a valiant performance in a second-place finish last season. He still presents one of the best combinations of short-game/Poa annua putting acumen in this field, and he's shown repeatedly at courses like Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines, and Olympia Fields that his ball-striking baselines rise when scoring conditions get difficult.
There are certainly valid reasons why the community as a whole is down on Homa in his home event, but if you'd told me three weeks ago that there was the potential to get Max Homa in the mid-20s at Riviera, I wouldn't have believed you. In my mind, this week has just as much potential to serve as a springboard for Max's overall stock as it does for the downslide to continue into Florida. At 25-1, I'm more than comfortable taking the risk.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Tony Finau (35-1)
Tony Finau moves to 10-under and T-2 with a birdie on the 8th. 📈
📺: Golf Channel & @peacock | @FarmersInsOpen pic.twitter.com/UGB0rm1XRx
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) January 27, 2024
While a few marquee names at the top of the odds board come in with a shaky run of recent results, the same cannot be said for the group's past 30. Adam Scott, Sahith Theegala, and Matt Fitzpatrick all come into the week with compelling recent runs of form, but my favorite of the lot is Tony Finau. Through the first month of the season, Finau has recaptured the ball-striking form that had fans touting him as a top-five player in the world at the start of last summer.
Finau gained over seven shots to the field with his iron play in three rounds at Torrey Pines before gaining nearly six shots ball-striking in two rounds at Pebble Beach the very next week. His affinity for California golf has been well documented at those two venues, but Riviera is the spot at which he's come the closest to capturing glory.
Finau has recorded two runner-up finishes here since 2018 -- most recently losing to Max Homa in a heartbreaking playoff three years ago. In that time, Finau ranks third in this field in SG:Total around Riviera, second in SG:Approach, and perhaps most notably 20th in SG:Putting.
It's not often that I highlight a top-20 rating in a field with just 72 entrants, but given Finau's recent run of form with the flat stick, any sign of historic life on particular green complexes is a sight for sore eyes. Finau has lost strokes on the greens in six of his last seven appearances, and in many of those cases, we're not exactly talking about a negligible amount.
The good news is both his long-term baselines on Poa annua and here at Riviera point to this as a get-right spot. He's gained strokes putting here in four of his last six starts and with his sixth-place finish three weeks ago at Torrey Pines, he's already proven that he can contend on a demanding golf course without needing a spike week on the greens. If the flat stick can stabilize just a little bit towards his long-term baselines, the recent tee-to-green play is good enough to once again throw his name into the ring in Pacific Palisades.
Cameron Young (40-1)
What a shot Cameron Young! He almost aces the par 4 12th!😲pic.twitter.com/kv1ujIykJO
— Golf Monthly (@GolfMonthly) March 11, 2023
With two top-eight finishes over his last three starts, it feels like Cameron Young is finally building some forward momentum following a maddeningly inconsistent 2023. There's perhaps no other venue on the PGA Tour for the American to keep it going either, as Young has recorded two of the more impressive ball-striking weeks of his career over his last two starts at Riviera.
Young has gained an astounding 17.1 shots to the field in eight rounds at Riviera between his driving and iron play -- a mark that bests the second-best performer in that time (Viktor Hovland) by over three strokes. Young has used his immense power off of the tee to conquer some of the most demanding driving tests on the PGA Tour (Bay Hill, Olympia Fields, Southern Hills, etc.), and I don't imagine Riviera will present nearly the same hindrances to Cam's aggressive off-the-tee approach.
Cam has also consistently raised his baselines on courses with a heavy emphasis on approach shots of 150 yards and beyond. He ranks ninth in my 12-month weighted proximity model, and comes into this week on the back of gaining 9.1 combined strokes on approach between two starts at the Dubai Desert Classic and the WM Phoenix Open. If the ball-striking run continues for Young at Riviera, he's already proven he's capable of getting to a score worthy of a Genesis Invitational title.
Wyndham Clark (45-1)
What was better? The shot or the twirl? 🔥 @Wyndham_Clark gets close on 18 @USOpenGolf. pic.twitter.com/LVG2MUQc78
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 18, 2023
We talked in our "Scouting the Routing" article about the routine disrespect being given to the reigning U.S. Open on recent outright oddsboards, and lo and behold, prices of 45-1 became wildly available as shops opened their lines for the Genesis Invitational. Already a winner of a major championship and two other elevated events over the last nine months, I genuinely don't know what else Wyndham has to prove to gain respect in the betting market. Particularly here at Riviera, where his well-balanced skill set should further shine through.
Clark ranks fifth in this field in Driving Distance (a skill that has proven to be quite profitable for the likes of Cameron Young, Viktor Hovland, and Rory McIlroy in recent years), he ranks seventh in Strokes Gained per shot on approaches from 150 yards and beyond, and top-10 in a variety of my key short game metrics (Sand Saves, SG: ARG, Poa Annua Putting, Make Percentage <10 feet).
There is perhaps no other course on tour that tests you in the multitude of ways that Riviera does from both a ball-striking and short-game perspective. By my numbers, Wyndham is as well-suited as anyone in this field to answer the sheer variety of questions on offer this week, and unlike many of the names I'm indecisive on in the teens/20s, I do not doubt Clark's ability to close out a tournament of this magnitude. He's incredibly likely to repeat the same trick he pulled off last summer: take down two seven-figure paydays in quick succession against the biggest names this sport has to offer.
Best of luck guys, and happy hunting!
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