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Ryan and Nick give their picks for the major conference winners for 2024 men's college basketball. Which teams have the edge heading into the home stretch?
The NFL season needs to get on with itself. I can only take so much more Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce content.
That's why Nick Rodriguez (@DrRoddy_) and myself have decided to instead immerse ourselves in the college basketball conference races, most of which are looking like they will come down to the wire.
So, without further ado, here are our picks for the major conference winners.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Ryan’s Pick: North Carolina (-425 DraftKings)
It’s no secret that I’m not the biggest North Carolina fan this season, but the Tar Heels have been impressive thus far, especially in conference play. They are currently one game up on Virginia, occupying the top spot in the ACC. RJ Davis is the best guard in the country, almost a guarantee for first-team All-American honors, and Armando Bacot is still one of the best interior players in all of college basketball for the 10th year in a row.
The unsung hero of this team has been forward Harrison Ingram, though. The Stanford transfer is exceptional on both ends of the floor and his play has elevated this starting five to one of the best units in the country. While the Tar Heels did just blitz Duke this past weekend, I do still think the Blue Devils can steal the conference if they can string together some wins in the softer part of their schedule coming up. This is going to be one of the more intense finishes and may come down to the last couple of games.
Nick’s Pick: North Carolina (-425 DraftKings)
Not a valuable pick here per se, but I don’t see any real schedule advantages for the other ACC contenders here. North Carolina maintains a one game lead over Virginia and a two or more game lead over every other ACC team, including Duke who they beat on Saturday.
As Ryan mentioned, RJ Davis has played at such a high level that it’s unlikely they slip up more than twice down the stretch. However, they do have a bad loss to Georgia Tech and lost to Clemson at home Tuesday night. I’m not a buyer in UNC long-term because of the lack of guard help, but they do take care of the ball, rebound at a high rate, and are one of the better defensive teams nationally.
Virginia at +900 would be my second pick here, as they get the Tar Heels at home on February 24, but also have to play at Virginia Tech and Duke down the stretch. The Cavaliers have been dominant as of late, but don’t have the same ceiling as the blue bloods.
Southeastern Conference
Ryan’s Pick: Tennessee (+200 BetMGM)
Currently only half a game back and sporting the best resume/metrics in this strong power conference, the Vols at this number seems like a steal to me. SEC play has been a gauntlet this season, with five teams currently ranked in the top 17, but Tennessee has handled business for the most part, recently blitzing Kentucky on the road and LSU at home.
KenPom also has them with at least a 60% chance to win all of their remaining games (except one -- at Alabama). Auburn (+180 DraftKings) is the only other team with those kinds of favorable odds, and while I am definitely scared of the Tigers, I believe in Tennessee's veterans and Dalton Knecht's picturesque jumper to finish the season stronger.
Nick’s Pick: South Carolina (+1300 FanDuel)
The boys!!! The second year under Lamont Paris has been so enjoyable to watch. The Gamecocks are tied atop the standings with Alabama and Auburn, two teams that just faced off last night. They also sit at 20-3 and are on a six-game win streak with victories at Tennessee and at home over Kentucky, no small feat.
Although there are no easy SEC schedules remaining, South Carolina does get to face Auburn after a difficult stretch and Tennessee and Florida at home late in the year. B.J. Mack, Meechie Johnson, and Ta'Lon Cooper are balling. Every team besides the Vols has a clear weakness and should lose at least a game or two before conference tournament play begins. With their current position tied at #1 in the conference, 13-1 still poses immense value on a team playing their best ball.
Big Ten
Ryan’s Pick: Purdue (-1600 DraftKings)
This number was -425 a few days ago, but then the Boilermakers had to go into the Kohl Center and handle Wisconsin, making the Big Ten regular season title a virtual lock at this point. I am clearly high on this squad based on my title predictions, so I won’t bore you with a bunch more Purdue praises, but this team just does so many things well and is much more experienced than a season ago.
Big Ten heads know Lance Jones well, but the remainder of college basketball fans need to take notice. The transfer from Southern Illinois is a glue-guy on steroids, and one my favorite players to watch this year. He brings the energy on defense and has hit countless big shots for this team in 2023-24. He’s an indispensable piece that will be huge come tourney time.
Nick’s Pick: Illinois (+1500 DraftKings)
The B1G is basically a one team race, with two contenders at this point. Purdue is coming off a massive 75-69 win over Wisconsin in Madison and rightfully sits as the heavy favorite to win the regular season title. However, this is a massive number in a race where the Illini get to square off with the Boilermakers at home on March 5.
The return of star guard Terrence Shannon Jr. raises the ceiling of Brad Underwood’s bunch to be able to compete with almost any team in the nation. His time away also allowed players like Marcus Domask and Quincy Guerrier to gain confidence for the home stretch. The favorite Boilermakers finish the season against Michigan State, Illinois, and Wisconsin.
If the Fighting Illini are able to maintain a high level of play through the matchup in Sparty this weekend, there’s a chance they’re fighting to take home the Big Ten title come March.
Big 12
Ryan’s Pick: Kansas (+800 Caesars)
The loss at Kansas State gives me some pause, but this number is way too tempting given that the Jayhawks (6-4) are only one game behind first place Houston (7-3). Add in the fact that Bill Self has either tied or won the conference outright 19 years running, and this is a no-brainer.
The rise of freshman Johnny Furphy has been a huge boost for the Jayhawks, who had some trouble figuring out their rotation early on. Highly sought-after Towson transfer Nicolas Timberlake has been a virtual non-factor, and five-star shooting guard Elmarko Jackson has also struggled. Self will still need those two to contribute a bit more for them to make a run in the tournament, but the Big 12 regular season title is well within reach.
Nick’s Pick: Houston (-150 BetMGM)
The Houston Cougars are currently one of my Final Four picks and for my money, still the best team in the deepest conference. Despite Kansas playing PERFECT and beating the Cougars in Allen Fieldhouse this past Saturday, I am not a believer long-term.
The reason I prefer Houston here is they have the best remaining schedule. Kelvin Sampson’s bunch gets Iowa State and Kansas at home while traveling to Baylor and Oklahoma, a few teams I think are a good matchup for Houston. As I wrote earlier, they have some solid shooters and play one of the most disheartening styles for opponents.
My next pick would be Iowa State +500. Outside of a matchup in Houston, the Cyclones have a pretty favorable schedule to finish the season. Similar to the Cougars, they’re led by a pair of guards and are so so soooo good at forcing turnovers (#2 in the country). Free points and extra possessions are crucial in some of these Big 12 road matchups, making T.J. Otzelberger’s group a real contender to sneak out a Big 12 title. As mentioned, I’m not a believer in Kansas and think Baylor is susceptible on defense and prone to stretches of turnover issues.
Big East
Ryan’s Pick: UConn (-1000 DraftKings)
Marquette is only a couple games back and sitting at +800 on FanDuel, but I genuinely think it would be a waste of money at this point. The Huskies are on fire right now and showing no signs of slowing down.
They looked mortal against Butler last game, but even with their All-American candidate Tristen Newton and their star freshman Stephon Castle (who just put up back to back career highs) struggling all night, they still won in fairly easy fashion. Donovan Clingan set a career high in rebounds with 14, and Cam Spencer once again went crazy from long range (9-15 in his past two outings). This team is clearly the best team in the country and deserves all the praise.
Nick’s Pick: UConn (-1000 DraftKings)
With a 2.5-game lead over Marquette and a three-game lead over the rest of the conference, I would be comfortable calling this one already. Despite two matchups between the Huskies and Golden Eagles looming, the ladder has a depleted lineup while UConn is once again playing at the highest level around.
There isn’t much value in backing them ATS or to win the Big East, but they are the best team in the country at the moment. None of the Big East contenders have easy schedules as there is a gauntlet of road games to finish the season. Any one of five guys can take over stretches of a game, making this team relatively matchup-proof and able to hang around on off nights.
Pac-12
Ryan’s Pick: Arizona (-350 DraftKings)
It's true that the Wildcats haven't dominated this conference like many expected, but they still hold a one-game lead on the field and are a level above every other team metrics-wise. They are #6 in offensive efficiency (next closest -- Colorado at #34) and #11 in defensive efficiency (next closest -- UCLA at #34).
The loss to Oregon State was a head-scratcher, but Tommy Lloyd and Co. just went to Eugene and handled an Oregon team that presents maybe the biggest threat to their claim on another Pac-12 regular season title. I like the value of Nick's pick below due to how close the race still is, but Arizona is going to win this conference.
Nick’s Pick: Colorado (+1400 BetMGM)
Top to bottom, the Pac-12 is the worst Power Five conference by a decent margin. Arizona has a two-game lead over the field, and a three-game lead over Colorado, but has been vulnerable on a number of occasions. Losses at Oregon State and Stanford show how much of a long-term hindrance their three-point shooting and defense can be.
Despite this, the Wildcats demolished Colorado last month, with the Buffaloes also suffering losses at Washington State and Utah in their last two. These two teams match up again this Saturday, where if Colorado is able to come out on top, it will bring this conference race neck and neck.
The Buffaloes are led by a few potential NBA players and remain one of the more talented yet underachieving rosters in the country. Tristan da Silva and Cody Williams can be matchup nightmares, while sharpshooters KJ Simpson and Julian Hammond III monitor the perimeter.
This whole bet hinges on the upcoming Saturday game against the Wildcats, where I believe there is more value to back the Buffaloes opposed to taking a flier on winning the conference. Among the other contenders, Utah has the hardest schedule and can struggle defensively. Washington State has been enjoyable, but doesn’t possess the same ceiling, and Oregon is as inconsistent as they come with a gauntlet to finish the season.
