PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for the WM Phoenix Open (Round 1)

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the WM Phoenix Open (Round 1). The 2024 PGA Tour season is already in full swing, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at TPC Scottsdale for the 2024 WM Phoenix Open! The "People's Open" has been one of the most iconic events on the PGA Tour schedule for many years now, but its spot on the 2024 schedule between two elevated events in Pebble Beach and Riviera has sapped a bit of the star power we're used to seeing in the desert. That won't be of much concern to the approximately 700,000 fans projected to be in attendance over the four days, but for golf bettors, this reduced hold at the top of the odds board opens up the possibilities for some guys flying under the radar to once again make a big splash in this crazy start to the PGA season. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, February 8.

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Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.

Hideki Matsuyama MORE than Seamus Power - Birdies or Better Matchup

As my good friend Byron Lindique reminds me constantly, we're almost 12 months removed from Hideki Matsuyama's last top-ten finish on the PGA Tour. It's certainly been a trying few years for the Japanese No. 1 has he's repeatedly dealt with nagging neck and back injuries, but despite this reduction in overall baseline, his Round 1 matchup with Irishman Seamus Power projects as one of the largest mismatches on the PrizePicks Thursday slate.

TPC Scottsdale has been the safest of havens for Hideki throughout his career: logging finishes of 4th, 2nd, 1st, and 1st over his first four appearances in the desert, whilst rating out as the best iron player in the field from a strokes gained standpoint across his nine starts (40.2 Strokes Gained in 36 rounds). The iron play has been the one facet of his game that has remained evergreen through this trying stretch of his career, as Hideki still rates out as the seventh-best mid/long-iron player in my model over the last 12 months, and ranks 4th in Birdie Chances Created over his last 36 rounds.

The same can not be said for Seamus Power's 12-month downturn, as the Irishman has recorded just one top-15 finish since last March's Arnold Palmer Invitational, and ranks well inside the bottom half in both of my key ball-striking metrics this week (Total Driving and Proximity >150 yards). He did manage a 20th-place finish here at the WM last season (his only made-cut in three appearances), but most of that was largely due to the 4.4 shots he gained on the greens. If Power wants to keep up with Hideki in a head-to-head Birdie Game, he's going to need to bring a lot more to the table with his long game around a venue like TPC Scottsdale.

We've seen time and time again that elite ball-striking is the key separator around this incredibly penal venue. I'll gladly trust the guy who I feel still possesses one of the elite tee-to-green toolkits in the game.

Alex Noren MORE than 12.5 Greens In Regulation

This is an angle I talked about extensively on my show "Flag Hunting" with Scottsdale resident Chris Werme, but the recent heavy rainfall we've seen in the area will almost assuredly result in a positive shift from the traditional Fairway/GIR baselines we see around TPC Scottsdale. Typically, this brand of desert golf is known for having some of the firmer landing areas on the PGA Tour, but even with the lack of control caused by the grouds unpredictability, the roughly 7,000 square foot greens at Scottsdale haven't exactly been difficult to find in regulation (67.2% historically; ~1.5% above Tour Average).

In softer, more receptive conditions, players will find it much easier to hold greens with the many mid/long irons required through their round, giving a potential edge in these specialized Green in Regulation markets. Alex Noren comes into this week in a great run of form (two top-three finishes and three additional top-30s over his last seven starts), and ranks sixth in this field in GIR % over his last 36 rounds.

At TPC Scottsdale in particular, the Swede has put together a stellar track record over four appearances --  he's finished 6th, 21st, and 44th to go along with a missed cut in 2023, but even more pertinent to this particular prop, he's also never lost strokes on approach around TPC Scottsdale. Noren has recorded finishes of 3rd and 25th at the other two desert stops on the schedule (AmEx and Shriners), within the last four months, and I see nothing in the underlying data to suggest he's due for regression from his recent play.

Other Recommendations

• Si Woo Kim MORE than 8.5 Fairways Hit
• Matt Fitzpatrick MORE than 7.5 Fairways Hit
• Akshay Bhatia Rose MORE than Lucas Glover - Birdies or Better Matchup

Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play

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