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Ryan's list of overrated and underrated CBB power rankings from AP, for 2023 NCAA college basketball teams for Week 12. Who are the most overvalued and undervalued college basketball teams after Week 11?
It wasn't the craziest week of college basketball, but we got several electric finishes over the past seven days that led to some shakeup. UConn was able to hold onto their new #1 ranking with a huge win over #18 Creighton and a narrow one-point victory to Villanova on the road. Purdue stayed put at #2 with easy wins at Indiana and Iowa. Kansas dropped a stinker at 6-11 West Virginia. Tennessee continues to roll over the SEC. Blake Hinson taunted the Cameron Crazies after a four-point win over Duke. Memphis endured another bad loss.
Only two teams dropped from the rankings - TCU and Ole Miss - with two more (New Mexico and Colorado State) taking their place. The Big 12 continues to dominate the poll with seven members in the top 25.
It's time for the next article of a year-long series: Overrated and Underrated College Basketball Teams after the release of the weekly Associated Press Poll. All rankings listed are based on the Week 12 AP Poll.
Overrated College Basketball Teams For Week 12
Auburn Tigers: #13 to #8
Bruce Pearl is at it yet again. After being picked to finish sixth in the SEC and with no preseason ranking next to their name, the Tigers have blown expectations out of the water to the tune of a 16-2 record, with ranked wins over #22 Ole Miss and... oh. That's it. The only other ranked them they've played this season was on a neutral court against #20 Baylor to open the year, which they dropped. They have taken care of Arkansas on the road and Texas A&M at home, two teams that were previously ranked. Other than Baylor though, their non-conference schedule has been close to a walk in the park. The next highest-ranked opponent according to KenPom this team has faced is No. 58 Virginia Tech.
What Auburn does have going for them is depth. Pearl has a very deep rotation - not a single player averages more than 23 minutes per game. He has a legitimate ten guys that all play at least 15 minutes per night, one of the only teams in the country that boasts that kind of minutes distribution. As much praise as five-star freshman Aden Holloway has received, he has not been consistent whatsoever and his overall stats have been mediocre given his status coming in and how much freedom he's allowed. There's no doubt he's an incredible talent, but 10 points and 3.3 assists on 34% from the field is not great. The allure of Holloway is overshadowing forward Johni Broome, who is legitimate a first-team all-SEC caliber player. He is the main reason why this team currently has a top-10 national ranking.
The analytics also love this team. Auburn is ranked No. 5 overall, and top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Their defense is especially incredible, ranking third nationally in effective field goal percentage. With how deep the SEC is this year though, I don't buy this team being able to hold down a top 10 ranking. They can be very erratic at times and that will lead to some unexpected losses. Kentucky and Tennessee are still a step above this team, which puts them around where I have UNC in the rankings (10-15 range).
North Carolina Tar Heels: #4 to #3
UNC is on what some would call a 'heater.' There's no doubting that. After dropping back-to-back road games at No. 5 UConn (MSG) and No. 14 Kentucky, the Tar Heels have ripped off nine straight wins, including double-digit victories over No. 7 Oklahoma and No. 16 Clemson. RJ Davis and Armando Bacot are continuing their usual domination as they lead the ACC in scoring and rebounding, respectively. Hubert Davis is silencing the haters with the way the season is playing out so far in Chapel Hill.
The reason including the Tar Heels here is because I don't believe their depth will be able to hold down a top-five national rank. We all know Davis and Bacot are phenomenal. Even if Bacot's scoring is slightly down, he is still one of the most ferocious rebounders in the country. Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan have been solid hits in the portal, especially Ingram. He's second on the team in rebounding (7.8) and three-point shooting (40.8% - minimum of 20 attempts), all while being asked to handle the ball a considerable amount. Five-star point guard Elliot Cadeau has been able to spell Davis with varying levels of success but has flashed big-time potential. Past this, I don't really believe in the rotating door of Seth Trimble, Jae'lyn Withers, and Jalen Washington as reliable depth pieces on the #3 team in the country. Trimble and Washington came in expecting to take some kind of sophomore leap but that has not materialized.
It's hard to make a case against the Tar Heels right now given their hot start to conference play (7-0), but I'm not buying them as a top-five team. The ACC is having another down year - two teams currently in the top 25 and only one in others receiving votes - but they do have a number of mid-tier teams that are very tough outs, especially on the road. NC State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia, Pitt, and Miami are all fighting for NCAA tournament bids, and will not go lightly. I bet the Tar Heels will drop a number of these games and nestle into that 12-15 range heading into March. That will still get them around a two-three seed depending on their performance in the ACC tournament, but I have a hard time envisioning a one seed in their near future.
Underrated College Basketball Teams For Week 12
Iowa State Cyclones: #24 to #23
Iowa State has been one of the more impressive teams in the Big 12 that I've seen this year, relative to expectations. The job T.J. Otzelberger has done in Ames needs to be discussed more. The former South Dakota State head coach inherited a 2-22 team and took them to the Sweet 16 in his first season. That is nothing short of miracle work. After making the Big Dance yet again last season, Iowa State was picked to finish seventh in the every-night slugfest that is the Big 12. The Cyclones are currently second, sitting at 6-1 after a hard-fought win on the road vs. #19 TCU without their best player in Tamin Lipsey.
Their losses have all been to very solid teams (#58 Virginia Tech, #37 Texas A&M, @ #11 Oklahoma, and @ #20 BYU. Iowa State was also able to hand the elusive #1 Houston their first loss of the season, holding the Cougars to 38% from the floor. Tamin Lipsey is one of the least talked about stars in college basketball, but the sophomore is exceptional at all levels. He has complete control of the offense, seeing the floor better than almost anyone I've watched in the sport this year. A hometown kid hailing from Ames, Lipsey is one of two players in the conference to average at least 14.5 points per game, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. He's following in the footsteps of future NBA All-Star Tyrese Halliburton and should be the favorite to win Big 12 Player of the Year next season if he chooses to return.
This team is also a menace defensively, a facet of the game that Otzelberger has emphasized most since coming to Ames. After he took over, the Cyclones went from the #135th best defense to #5 nationally in one season. Last year they ranked eighth, and this year they currently sit third overall. Iowa State has a multitude of guys that can guard any position and they pressure the hell out of opposing ball handlers, which has led to the highest turnover rate in the country. This is not a team I would want to see in the NCAA tournament. The Cyclones are a sure-fire top-20 team in the land.
Arizona Wildcats: #12 to #9
Once the talk of the town, the Wildcats have faded into the woodwork over the past month due to some questionable losses. They gave up 100 points in regulation to a Stanford team that is 63rd in adjusted offensive efficiency. Losing to a gritty Washington State team on the road doesn't look great, but the Cougars are on track to have their best season since 2011.
Tommy Lloyd and Co. are still tied for first in the Pac-12 with a 5-2 mark and are an absolute lock to take home the regular season crown. This team checks all the boxes on the metrics side - top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, up-tempo offense, and incredible rebounding. They also go a legit eight-deep and have a microwave scorer who can win them any game in Caleb Love. Love is having a career year - highs in points and FG% - on this Arizona team because he's being utilized the right way. Less dribbling and hero-ball, more playing within the offense and taking what the defense gives him. Love isn't forcing up shots every other possession and looks great within Tommy Lloyd's system.
Indeed, Lloyd has already started to develop a reputation for flaming out in March. Only a pair of tournament wins in two seasons after earning a #1 and #2 seed is not going to cut it. This team appears more complete than in years past. I still believe that the Wildcats are one of the best five teams in college basketball, and I think they prove that in conference play.
