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Dawn Tepper's NFL DFS sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 18 (2023). Her value picks and lineup sleepers for building winning daily fantasy football lineups.
We're on to our last regular season weekend of NFL, RotoBallers, and we're here to guide you through the 18th week of the season and find sneaky sleeper values to help you take down your favorite contest. If you're playing cash games, you don't have to have the top QB or RB of the week. But in Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)? The best way to go is to focus on players with the highest potential upside for their DFS price. This article will run every week throughout the regular season.
It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS (based on DraftKings salaries) for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must.
It's crucial to prioritize players with higher guaranteed floors and consistency to increase our chances of winning cash games. No matter which game you choose, these picks will come in handy. So, without further ado, let's dive in!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 18
Nick Mullens, MIN at DET | DK: $5,100, FD: $7,100
The last regular season weekend of football isn't just a sad one; it's tricky for us DFS players. For example, this particular game means something to both teams. Detroit gets the number two seed if they beat the Vikings, and Philadelphia and Dallas lose. Minnesota needs a bit more help than that, including a win in Detroit, Chicago beating Green Bay, the Cardinals beating the Seahawks, and one of these two: the Falcons beating the Saints or the Panthers beating the Buccaneers.
At just $5,100 and having something to play for, whatever the Vikings slim chances, Mullens has an immediate edge against a team that has allowed 300 yards passing in the last three games.
Taylor Heinicke, ATL at NO | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,900
As a long-suffering Commanders fan, I've always been Team Heinicke. He has heart, his teammates love him, and he'll do anything to win games. Does that include a few interceptions? Sure, but at $4,900, we don't need much from him to hit his value against the Saints. New Orleans is tough on quarterbacks, and this is a must-win for them if they want to try and make the playoffs.
You never know what might happen when these two teams, who despise each other, go up against each other in a must-win game. New Orleans should win, but Atlanta will do everything they can to play spoiler, which could make for an intriguing matchup.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 18
Zamir White, LV vs. DEN | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,500
Another item to add to the In/Out lists for 2024: Josh Jacobs OUT | Zamir White IN. In his last three games with Jacbos out, White has 59 carries for 285 yards and has scored one touchdown. The Broncos have been giving up an average of 22 points per game to running backs this season. Additionally, opposing teams have been able to rush for over 118 yards per game against them and have been targeting running backs for almost seven passing attempts per game.
He'll be highly owned, but I'll still be plugging him into my lineups, cash or otherwise.
Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. TB | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,200
Tampa Bay has allowed some of the least amount of fantasy points to running backs this season, but they are also allowing one of the highest amounts of fantasy points in the red zone to running backs. In his five career games versus the Bucs, Hubbard has scored four touchdowns; in his last three games this season, he has scored three.
Hubbard is finding his way into the end zone, and while it won't be easy, his luck does seem to change when facing the Buccaneers.
Jordan Mason, SF vs. LAR | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,700
With the Niners clinching the number one seed in the NFC, a banged-up Christian McCaffrey will be sitting out for San Francisco's last regular season game. That leaves Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason to run against the Rams. Mason has 77 carries for 428 yards and four touchdowns in the last two seasons. The Rams are currently ranked 12th in the league for rushing yards allowed per game, averaging 105.7 yards.
This makes for a challenging task for Mason, but the young running back will be looking to prove himself and could surprise everyone this weekend. This is also an excellent opportunity for DFS players to consider a low-owned running back under $5,000, enabling us to invest in high-priced wide receivers playing for teams that need a win this weekend <cough>Justin Jefferson</cough>.
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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 18
Tyler Lockett, SEA at ARI | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,800
Arizona's defense has been stout these last few games, allowing just 24 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Surprisingly, they are also allowing 12.7 red zone points per game to wide receivers. This season, Lockett is second only to DK Metcalf with the the most red zone targets amongst wide receivers in Seattle, with 14 targets and four touchdowns. This could be another opportunity to grab a low-owned receiver with high odds to get into the end zone in Arizona.
Brandin Cooks, DAL at WAS | DK: $4,600, FD: $6,300
I had to be sure my eyes weren't deceiving me when I saw Cooks at $4,600 on DraftKings. Against a Washington team in shambles and allowing 29 points per game to wide receivers, every wide receiver in Dallas should get a piece of the red-zone pie this weekend. In Cooks' last five games, he has had three touchdowns and was targeted 25 times for 15 receptions, averaging nine yards per catch.
K.J. Osborn, MIN at DET | DK: $4,400, FD: $5,000
Osborn had no targets or receptions in last Sunday's loss to Green Bay, but could that change in Detroit? With no Hockenson last week, thoughts among touts and analysts were that Osborn would get more opportunities, but alas, it was not to be. To my DFS mind, this means going back to the well this weekend to what will surely be a low-owned, low-priced wide receiver.
At $4,400, Osborn just needs one of Mullens' long bombs turned touchdown to hit his value, and I can see that exact thing happening this weekend against the Lions.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 18
Johnny Mundt, MIN at DET | DK: $3,000, FD: $4,500
In Minnesota's loss to Green Bay last weekend, Mundt had seven targets for four receptions and pulled in the game's lone touchdown for the Vikings. I'll go back to my personal thoughts on young quarterbacks and their tight ends: young quarterbacks love their tight ends. A bit obvious, but it continues to be true, and I expect it to continue this weekend in Detroit.
The Lions are allowing eight targets per game to tight ends this season, with 62 yards per game receiving, but they have been stingy in the red zone. Don't let that scare you off of a $3,000 tight end who has a good chance of getting into the red zone this weekend.
Gerald Everett, LAC vs. KC | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,200
With no Keenan Allen and probably no Joshua Palmer, there will be extra targets to go around in Los Angeles. Kansas City is allowing 11 fantasy points per game to tight ends, and in the red zone, 7.4 targets for 5.1 receptions per game. In the Chargers' loss to the Chiefs earlier in the season, Everett had a total of 26 yards receiving with a touchdown.
He hasn't scored a touchdown in the last five games, but this weekend gives him another opportunity against a team he's already scored against this season. I believe he'll be able to relive that fond memory this weekend at home versus Kansas City.
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