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Fantasy Basketball Breakouts, Busts, and Locks is a fantasy basketball exercise in which RotoBaller NBA analysts dissect each NBA team's emerging talent, overrated players, and steady contributors. As the fantasy basketball season demands extreme detail and attention, taking the time to identify game-breakers and game-changers in the NBA makes the difference between winning or losing your league. Thankfully, RotoBaller is here to help in that regard.
On the heels of losing out to Damian Lillard despite posturing as the only candidate for the disgruntled star, the Miami Heat allowed their free agents to sign elsewhere. With a skeleton roster, players must step up for Miami to sniff the playoffs in 2024.
Now let's see who the breakout, bust, and lock picks are for the 2023-2024 Heat.
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Miami Heat Fantasy Breakout - Tyler Herro
Let's discuss the elephant in the room: the Miami Heat needs help.
As Jimmy Butler enters his age-34 season with no solutions other than internal growth from Herro, Heat fans look to the roster's prospects for help. However, such dependency on otherwise unproven players implies a down year. Herro must take his game to another gear for Miami to make the playoffs, especially considering he missed the magical run to the NBA Finals the season prior.
Labeling Herro as the breakout seems silly, as he averaged 33.5 fantasy points last season. But the stakes are as high as it gets for Herro. The sixth-man role won't get it done; that's how vital Herro is to the Heat's success. Perhaps the young players will do something in the playoffs when everyone least expects it, as Erik Spoelstra's teams typically do. Still, the season must see Herro take the reigns of the offense and allow Butler to save his energy for another postseason run.
Tyler Herro is one of only 12 players in NBA history to make 600+ three-pointers in his first four seasons. Of those 12, over that span, Herro shot the 6th best percentage from three (38.3%), trailing only Steph, Klay, Kyle Korver, Buddy Hield, and his teammate, Duncan Robinson. pic.twitter.com/8vcFLdWuQE
— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) October 8, 2023
Aside from his positive three-point shooting stats, keep an eye on his assists. Spoelstra told the media that Herro will see an uptick in ball-handling duties.
It's Herro to the rescue or bust for the Miami Heat.
Miami Heat Fantasy Bust - Kyle Lowry
Kyle Lowry expects to be the starting point guard of the Heat for the 2023-2024 season.
Without sounding too dramatic, such a statement should send chills down a Heat fan's body. A 37-year-old, 6'0 point guard with injury issues all sound like ingredients for a disaster. Lowry averaged 26.7 fantasy points last season, the least since his 2009-2010 campaign with the Houston Rockets. Aside from the biological facts, the Villanova alum's temperament seems to be in an unhealthy place.
Kyle Lowry still expects to start at point guard, but says he hasn't had a conversation with Spo about it yet pic.twitter.com/9XOFoCjPRm
— Wes Goldberg (@wcgoldberg) October 6, 2023
Lowry played in 55 games last year, and frankly, expecting him to suit up for more than 65 regular season games is a stretch. While the 2019 NBA champion has a knack for making timely plays, anything fantasy-related went out the window after last season.
Stay away from Lowry in all but the deepest of leagues.
Miami Heat Fantasy Lock - Bam Adebayo
Bam Adebayo is the best player on the Miami Heat. Now, hold on before you throw your device out of sheer rage. Butler takes the cake when the lights are brightest, and the stakes rise to peak pressure. However, as an anchor on defense and recently joining the 20-point scoring average club in the regular season, Adebayo is the most complete and dependable player in Miami.
Butler can't possibly be a fantasy lock in light of the mass chunk of games missed since the Marquette alum began drinking the "Heat Culture" Kool-Aid. Butler hasn't played more than 65 games since 2017 as a young leader of the Chicago Bulls. Butler's job now is to upkeep Miami's competitive standards and stay healthy for the playoffs. Adebayo is the other All-Star without the decade-long worth of mileage.
Coming so close to averaging a double-double last season, voted four consecutive times for All-NBA defense, and playing 75 games, Adebayo steps into the "best player on the team" stratosphere. One of the more well-rounded centers not named Nikola Jokic, Adebayo provides fantasy owners a sigh of relief as he makes it easier not to draft another center until later rounds.
Imagine sleeping on a top-five defensive player in the league. Unlike NBA GMs in a recent survey, don't allow Adebayo to slip, as he will be one of the first centers off the board.
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