Free NBA Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (4/18/23)

April 18, 2023

Thunder Dan's top NBA betting picks and best bets for today's NBA games on 4/17/23. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and NBA player props.

Last night we saw both the Kings and Sixers move to 2-0 in their series. The Sixers' success is no surprise as they were heavily favored against the Nets, but the Kings have been a great story as they were underdogs coming into that series despite being the higher seed. I took the Kings to win in both games, so I'm pretty pumped about that and I have them to win the series at +200 and +1.5 games in the series at +125.

Tonight we have three more game twos with two more Eastern Conference matchups and one out in the West. The Celtics look to extend their series lead to 2-0 and are double-digit favorites again, while both the Cavs and Suns are looking to even their series at home after being upset in their respective game ones.

In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA playoff games that tip-off at 7:00 PM EST on Tuesday, April 18th.

Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets

• 2022-2023 Postseason Record: 3-5
• Against the Spread: 2-1
• Game/Team Totals: 1-2
• Moneyline Parlay: 0-1
• Teasers: 0-1

NBA Betting Picks

Atlanta Hawks (+10.5) @ Boston Celtics (229 total)

Season Series: Boston leads series 1-0

The Hawks could not have had a worse start to game one. They came out and went down ten points by the end of the first quarter and then were promptly outscored 45-25 in the second quarter for a 30-point halftime deficit. Plenty of credit goes to the Celtics, they were ready to go and not rusty or flat at all like a few of the other favorites in their series. And to Atlanta's credit, they won both the third and fourth quarters and cut that 30-point lead down to just 13 by the end of the fourth quarter. But the hole was too big to dig out of against a good team like Boston.

The Hawks need to make some shots early and stay in this game from the start or they'll be in trouble again. Atlanta shot just 39% from the field in game one and made only 5-29 from three (17%). I think they'll be better in this game and that they likely have some positive regression coming in their shot-making. Boston is a superior team, I won't argue that, but 10.5 points is a lot of points in any NBA game, let alone a playoff game. I like the Hawks to cover here simply because I don't think they can play any worse than they did in game one and Boston certainly could.

The Pick: Hawks +10.5 (-115 FanDuel)

New York Knicks (+5.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (214 total)

Season Series: New York leads series 1-0

I was definitely disappointed in the game one loss for my Cavs, especially when they came back late and took the lead with a few minutes left, only to still come up a bit short. Donovan Mitchell was pretty awesome as usual with 38 points, but he needed 30 shots to get there and I don't think that's a winning recipe for Cleveland. They need to get Darius Garland involved and Evan Mobley simply has to be better than 8 points on 4-13 shooting, too. Oh, and they need SOMETHING from their bench as Cedi Osman and Caris LeVert didn't do much in game one.

The Knicks are a gutsy team, I admire how hard they play and how tough they are. But they played sloppy, too, and other than Josh Hart's 8-11 shooting, their big three all shot the ball poorly, too.

Welcome to the playoffs where Darius Garland shows and recovers vs. Brunson. You get a double team on Julius Randle and recover. You deny Brunson the ball back. Your reward is a Josh Hart stepback 3. pic.twitter.com/UekbEK9qBc

— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) April 17, 2023

I think the Cavs bounce back and pick up a win here, but I'm not confident enough in them to cover a full 5.5 points. This series feels like every game could be close. Instead, I think I'm going with the over as the total in this one already dropped 1.5 points from where game one finished at 215.5. While I usually favor the under in a playoff game, I think there's so much room for improvement on offense for both teams that we could see a more efficient offensive game from both that results in a higher-scoring affair. Two of the four meetings between these teams in the regular season went over this total so we have seen them do it before.

The Pick: OVER 214 points (-110 FanDuel)

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L.A. Clippers (+7.5) @ Phoenix Suns (226 total)

Season Series: Clippers lead series 1-0

I was pretty shocked the Suns dropped game one. They came out flat and it was pretty clear that they rested too much going into this series instead of keeping some continuity going with their starters. Let's not forget this team has only played nine games now with Durant in the lineup and they still have to find that chemistry on both offense and defense.

I just don't think the Clippers can count on Kawhi Leonard going for 40 points every night and carrying them. The rest of his supporting cast can really struggle to score the basketball. I mean Norman Powell and Eric Gordon can shoot, but Westbrook was 3-19 from the floor and is so limited in what he can do offensively and so is Terance Mann.

I like the Suns to bounce back here and win game two, but this spread is once again 7.5 points and I don't want to lay that many. My angle here is the opposite of the Cleveland game. I think the Clippers played a bit over their heads on offense and both teams' shooting numbers don't reflect that they shot it badly at all in game one. We saw both game twos last night come in well under their total as teams had better game plans on defense after seeing their what their opponents wanted to do in game one.

So if this is a chess match, I give the defenses an advantage here and I'll take this game to go under (it finished right at 225 in game one) tonight.

The Pick: UNDER 225.5 points (-110)

NBA Betting Picks: Parlays and Teasers

Money Line Parlay: PHX + CLE = (-110 FD)

Underdog Teaser (buying 4.5 points): Knicks +10, Hawks +15, Clippers +12 = (+200 FD)

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