Stop Bailing on Baker Mayfield: Why Injury Explains His Fall from Grace

April 10, 2022

Dr. Deepak Chona breaks down Baker Mayfield's 2021, the role that his shoulder injury played, plus what to expect in 2022 for fantasy football.

There's no sugar-coating it – Baker Mayfield was BAD in 2021. His 35.1 QBR ranked 27^th of 31 qualifying QBs, and three of the four players below him were first-round rookies playing with terrible supporting casts.

Baker’s Browns flailed their way to an 8-9 record despite finishing top-five in total defense and first in rushing yards per carry. That's a stark contrast compared to the 2020 Mayfield, who finished top-10 in regular-season QBR and led the Browns past the Steelers with 263 yards and three TD in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs.

So, what happened in between? Injuries. Let's break down exactly what went down and why it could lead to a rebound for Mayfield in 2022, wherever he winds up.

Shouldering the Blame

Two dislocations, a torn labrum, and a fracture in his shoulder probably had a lot to do with it. Baker first hurt his non-throwing shoulder in Week 2, but we didn’t hear about it for too long because he made it back for the following game in an almost heroic fashion. The fact that he played does not mean that the issue wasn’t serious, painful, or unstable. It just means he’s tough and was willing to accept the high probability of re-injuring himself and worsening the issue.

Of course, that is exactly what occurred. In Week 6, he dislocated the shoulder again, this time chipping off a piece of bone (from the humerus) with it. That shoulder needed surgery, but doing it during the season would have meant shutting himself down, which he again opted not to do.

I know what you’re thinking – it’s his non-throwing shoulder. How big of a difference can it really make? But imagine trying to protect yourself from the likes of T.J. Watt when he has three inches and 50 pounds on you. Now try to imagine doing that when one of your arms is barely moving, and exerting at best a small fraction of the strength you’re used to from it. These shoulder issues made it hard to protect the rest of his body, leading to a series of minor knee, groin, and heel injuries along the way. Case Keenum, Baker’s backup last year, called it a “small miracle” just to see Mayfield take the field each week. Yet somehow, Mayfield still managed to start 14 of their 17 games.

Fantasy Outlook

Everyone now seems to be selling their Baker Mayfield stock. You can’t really blame the Browns for upgrading when a generational talent in Deshaun Watson suddenly became available. After all, there are only five QBs – Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow – who I’d rather have at that spot than the 26-year-old Watson (legal and moral issues notwithstanding).

But there’s a high likelihood Watson gets suspended, with most insiders projecting somewhere in the neighborhood of 6-8 games. One of two things is likely to happen – either Mayfield gets traded somewhere to be the starter or he fills in and plays QB for the Browns during Watson’s suspension. That cast of weapons isn’t exactly a bunch of rejects – skill position players Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, and David Njoku plus an impressive offensive line – which means the QB doesn’t have to be Mahomes to put up numbers.

At this point, Mayfield is three months into a five-month recovery process following shoulder surgery. A full recovery of his pre-injury performance can be confidently expected – especially since it involves his non-throwing shoulder – and there’s only a mildly elevated risk of this popping up again in 2022. Getting him at QB31 – his current ranking on FantasyPros – is not just a bargain, it’s a straight-up steal.

Obviously, a trade would affect his value, and we’ll have to see if someone like the Seahawks decides to roll the dice on him. But even if not, the astute fantasy owner would keep him on the watch list as an almost-free insurance plan to pair with a high-risk, high-reward QB like Deshaun Watson, Trey Lance, or Justin Fields.

We’d all love to plug and play Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes weekly without a moment’s thought, but being economical at QB means investing that valuable early draft capital at positions like RB, WR, and TE. That’s the strategy supported by analytics year after year, so don’t be afraid to go against the grain on Baker Mayfield this year.

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