RADIO
Mike's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 3/12/22. His top LoL value plays and eSports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! Another five-game slate to break down with more huge favorites and a couple of close matchups. This morning featured four favorites coming out on top, with all three LPL matches ending in a sweep, while T1 remains undefeated and DK was the optimal full-stack paired with TES. Unfortunately, TES was the only match I didn't get correctly, and I still don't believe they've been fully tested by a playoff team. It's not hard guys, just stop giving Tian his best champ in Viego, and also stop letting Jackeylove get his most played/most broken reset champion in Jinx. JDG was also not as explosive as we had hoped, resulting in them not paying off their expensive price tags. We have to live with the results and look forward to this slate with multiple subs to mention. XLB will be making his debut this split over Karsa on V5. LSB is still dealing with Covid issues, so odds for that match aren't up at the time of writing this article, and the same Covid challenger subs should be in again for their match vs the fully healthy KT Rolster. LNG will be subbing out Lvmao and letting Iwandy return to the starting roster. UZI will be starting over Doggo for BLG, and Flandre is in for EDG in the same match. We've got to choose our spots tomorrow with restrictive pricing once again, so let's get right into this slate!
As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up early, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series. (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131) In this case, we might not get LCK lineups before the 2:00 AM lock, so we are going to try and project starters based on recent lineups. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM EST on Saturday, March 12th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @MAVpickems. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM: KT(-?) vs. LSB(+?)
We might not get starting lineups before lock for this LCK match, but the starters SHOULD be: Rascal/Cuzz/Vicla/Aiming/Life for KT, and Howling/HamBak/Ten10/Envyy/Kael for LSB. This match means far more for KT than it does for LSB. LSB is nearly eliminated from playoffs, while KT is right behind KDF in the standings for the last playoff seed. Also, LSB is playing with a full sub squad excluding Kael, who has been subpar this split, to say the least. I think we see a motivated KT here in a must-win matchup, who is also coming off a sweep vs HLE which may have sparked some hope into this new roster iteration with Vicla in the mid lane.
There's not much to dive into here, as LSB was already arguably the worst team in LCK, and now with all the Challenger subs coming in, that only benefits KT more. I like KT as a staple in my lineups tomorrow, for both cash and GPPs. I would be surprised if KT drops a game here, as they have looked better with Vicla in the lineup over Aria. KT is definitely the better team here and should be able to rack up some kills with strong kill participation in the process. I like KT as a full-stack and you get them at a price discount compared to V5 and LNG, and can fit them with LNG and GEN. KT is in a great spot tomorrow and I like getting to Aiming and Vicla for some of my favorite captain plays. LSB is not on my radar for tomorrow's slate.
Top KT plays: Aiming, Vicla, Cuzz, Rascal, Life
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5:00 AM: GEN (-806) vs. HLE(+461)
For this LCK match, we should see Doran/Peanut/Chovy??/Ruler/Lehends for GEN and Dudu/Onfleek/Karis/Samd/Vsta for HLE. Chovy tested positive for Covid six days ago and I believe the LCK policy requires the player to test negative after five or six days to be able to return. The odds seem to me that Chovy could be back, but we most likely won't know before lock. Be wary, but it's worth taking some shots on Chovy if you are making multiple lineups, but GEN could also let Ophelia get more run on the big stage. GEN is coming off a nice win vs DK in three games, while HLE just got swept by KT. I don't think GEN will be able to catch up to T1 in the standings, as T1's remaining schedule is very soft, but GEN is more so playing to retain the second seed and prevent DRX from catching up to them. HLE is also in the conversation for the worst team in the LCK, so GEN should be able to get in and get out here. I don't anticipate this one to be a bloodbath, but it's always a possibility when a team like HLE has nothing to lose and is looking to play spoiler.
I will be prioritizing my GEN stacks here as small stacks and one-offs, as they should probably just stomp HLE in less than 30 minutes in both games. Again, we could see an uptick in kills if HLE chooses to play more aggressively since they have nothing to play for, but GEN is just on another level and should be able to just stomp regardless. KT fits well with a GEN small stack and is a nice way to get different in GPPs, but double LCK in cash is a solid look.
Top GEN plays: Peanut, Ruler, Doran
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: AL (+316) vs. V5 (-450)
We head over to the LPL where first place V5 faces off against the underdog darlings in AL, who are still in the playoff race behind OMG and FPX for the last seed. XLB is starting over Karsa, which is definitely interesting. I do believe Karsa is the better player, but maybe they have had some success with XLB in scrims and want to give him a shot to see if he can provide value on different champions than Karsa's main pool. It's also possible that XLB gets subbed out if they lose game one, so just be wary when rostering him. This match should bring fireworks, as both these teams are not afraid to scrap and make aggressive engages and plays. Maybe for V5 bringing XLB in the lineup could be to tone down their early aggression and play a more reserved style, but I don't think that's the case, especially against a bloody AL team.
I think getting to AL for value is not a bad idea in large field GPPs. The problem is how expensive V5 is, similar to JDG yesterday, they are hard to fit without pairing them with a cheap underdog, or getting to a jungle or top captain. That's always a tough call to make, but I am fine getting to AL stacks here for value. I could definitely see V5 dropping a game here, and hopefully, that results in them not being able to pay off their expensive prices if they do win. However, AL is willing to force the issue and press their advantage similar to V5. It's always Betty who carries the team in their wins, with Xiaohao and Forge performing admirably as well. QiuQiu is the main engage player on this team and should be involved in a good amount of AL's kills in their wins if they win. I also think a Betty and Zdz small stack is a great way to get different. The pricing here is my biggest issue, so I will be mainly getting to AL full stacks in large field contests and some V5 small stacks as well, mainly the V5 solo laners, and hoping that this V5 team just doesn't look as dominant without Karsa in the lineup.
Top AL plays: Betty, Zdz, QiuQiu, Xiaohao
Top V5 plays: Rookie, Photic, Rich
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4:00 AM: LNG (-516) vs. LGD(+376)
This matchup features another large favorite in seventh place LNG against the playoff eliminated LGD. Another expensive favorite to get up to makes it hard to full-stack tomorrow, but LNG should win this match and probably sweep. I am honestly more comfortable in LNG sweeping than V5 sweeping. LGD is similar to AL in the sense that they are not afraid to fight frequently. I do think this is a get-right spot for LNG, and I do like the substitution of Iwandy over Lvmao here, as Light and Iwandy performed very well and were consistently good in their last split together. Tarzan and Iwandy in particular were good at linking up and getting vision/finding enemy picks together so I do see this as a potential upgrade in the support position, assuming Iwandy is still in good form.
I think LNG has been struggling recently due to their drafts, but also because they've been facing some top-tier competition in their last six games including losses to JDG, TES, V5, WBG, and RNG. This is a great spot for LNG to get back on track. I like LNG in both formats and am comfortable getting to Tarzan in the captain spot, hoping he is not stuck on Volibear duty and can grab an aggressive jungler to help him get his mojo back. He has been missing smites and getting caught out in fights he usually doesn't get caught in recently. Light is usually the primary carry on this squad, so getting to some Light captain with AL for value is another solid look in GPPs.
Top LNG plays: Light, Tarzan, DoinB, Iwandy
6:00 AM: EDG (-135) vs. BLG (+111)
The 6 AM early morning hammer features two teams on a recent skid, as sixth place EDG has lost two straight and eighth place BLG has lost three straight. BLG Uzi is subbing in while Flandre re-enters for EDG. As the odds indicate this is the closest match on the slate, and usually I like to side with the underdog in these matches. However, this match may draw some decent ownership on both sides as value is very lacking on this slate. I can also definitely see this one going three games, but I do lean EDG here with Flandre back in. BLG did almost take down V5 in a close series, but EDG is the smarter macro team in my eyes, and I don't think BLG will opt into the bloody style of game that they played vs V5, which benefits EDG in my opinion.
EDG has been experimenting this split with a lot of different compositions and multiple swaps in the top lane. Both of these teams have been up and down, but for EDG they still lead the league in GSPD% and also have the DRG% advantage over BLG. BLG does hold a slight vision advantage, but EDG can be a very disciplined team when they choose to be (unlike when they faced TES.) I think BLG draws more ownership in this match which is why I prefer the EDG side. Viper and Meiko are definitely up for the challenge of facing off against one of the game's greatest players in Uzi, and will be on their A-game. Again, I can see this one going three games based on how these teams have been playing, so it's an EDG or FADE angle for me in this one. EDG small stacks will be my priority or even one-offs, as I don't expect this match to be very bloody, but games with Uzi in have been very bot centric and bloodier than with Doggo in the lineup, so a Viper and Scout small stack seems like my favorite angle from this match besides a FADE.
Top EDG plays: Viper, Scout, Meiko, FADE, Jiejie
Summary
- TLDR: I'll be loading up on KT, LNG, AL, and EDG tomorrow. AL and EDG are my value spots, and the expensive V5 stacks I will be underweight on compared to the field, while probably over the field on KT full stacks. GEN is another full-stack that is pricy and has some question marks if Chovy will be playing or not, so I'd rather just get to GEN team one-off. V5 is a scary fade tomorrow but we will target other spots will a similar range of outcomes, due to V5's insane pricing.
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are KT/LNG, LNG/AL, AL/LNG, KT/EDG, and some KT/AL with some high-priced one-offs. I do prefer getting to 4-2-1 builds on these five-game slates, especially when there are multiple large favorites.
- Cash Stacks: For cash, I like KT with GEN/LNG and even some KT with EDG. It's KT or bust for me tomorrow.
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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