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Corbin's starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts and sleepers from the AL, most of which have an ADP beyond pick 200. His favorite 2025 SP draft values.
When looking at breakout starting pitchers, we want players who haven't been pushed up the draft boards based on past success. That typically means these players go in the middle to late rounds past pick 200 or so as an arbitrary cutoff. Bias aside, these starting pitchers have some intriguing metrics, team contexts, or potential opportunities to suggest a breakout season in 2025.
In fantasy sports, breakouts occur with a mixture of luck and skills, though we could argue the latter matters more. We have three starting pitchers to target as breakout starting pitcher candidates in the American League, plus two more honorable mentions that nearly made the priority list.
Like my typical columns, we'll scour the ADP, examine the skills, and provide actionable data for why these starting pitchers could break out in 2025. We'll pound the table for the first one, with a few others that might go under the radar in 2025.
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Kris Bubic, SP, Kansas City Royals
NFBC ADP: 274.5 (Since March 1)
We find a few players to love based on the underlying metrics during the offseason On February 2, my article covering late-round pitchers to target in draft-and-hold leagues came out. At the time, Bubic's ADP was past pick 350.
However, Bubic's ADP spiked nearly 100 picks over the past month. We loved Bubic as a deep sleeper because of the career-best strikeout-minus-walk rate and second-best swinging-strike rate in 2024. He flashed elite control too, evidenced by the 30.2 percent ball rate.
Sometimes we see the numbers spike when a pitcher becomes a reliever. That's the case with Bubic in 2024 after recovering from Tommy John surgery, a notable role change because he pitched as a starter for around 130 innings in 2021 and 2022 each.
The article from early February had details about why we should be higher on Bubic as a breakout candidate. The cliff notes version, besides the jump in strikeout skills as a reliever, involves his horizontal release point changes, leading to added velocity and induced vertical break for the four-seamer.
When we're taking chances on pitchers past pick 250, Bubic fits the mold of one to target. He checks the boxes of skill improvements, release point changes, and movement profile shifts. Lean into the uncertainty of Bubic with the Mitch Keller personal stamp of approval.
Will Warren, SP, New York Yankees
NFBC ADP: 303.8 (Since March 1)
Gerrit Cole was a starting pitcher fade before the injury news surfaced, at least when we drafted the article. With Cole and Luis Gil having serious injuries in spring training, causing them to miss significant time, the Yankees need to tap into their starting pitcher depth. That list begins with Warren.
Warren didn't realize he was riding the Yankees' roller coaster ride, going from the minors to the majors five times. From a real-life standpoint, it's probably frustrating for Warren to make a start, and then be sent back to Triple-A after that outing.
That's noteworthy because Warren's outcomes were awful (10.32 ERA, 1.90 WHIP). However, Warren's 4.38 xERA understandably suggested regression, especially with his luck factors via the 47 percent hit rate (H% or BABIP) and 44 percent strand rate (S%).
Warren's skill metrics were decent, with a 17 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate and 10.3 percent swinging-strike rate in his 22 innings in 2024. He showed slightly better swinging-strike rates in the minors, hovering around 12 to 13 percent.
As a prospect, Warren's sweeping slider was his best pitch. That's evident in Warren's sweeper eliciting a 19.1 percent swinging-strike rate while allowing a .308 wOBA (.260 xwOBA) in Triple-A.
Warren's offering to monitor would be the changeup, with a 17.3 percent swinging-strike rate at Triple-A. That's especially true because the four-seam doesn't have above-average levels of induced vertical break. However, Warren's heater could perform sneakily well with the lower release point and high-end extension.
After going around pick 350 to 400, Warren saw his ADP rise inside the top 300 picks since March 1. That still falls into the ADP range for a breakout pitcher. Take a chance on Warren because of the sweeping slider and changeup giving him non-fastballs to attack either side of the plate.
Cade Povich, SP, Baltimore Orioles
NFBC ADP: 356 (Since March 1)
If we look at the Orioles' pitcher injuries over the past two seasons, it's longer than we remember. That list includes Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Trevor Rogers, and Tyler Wells. Rodriguez's recent elbow injury increased Povich's odds of being in the starting rotation.
This might be more related to opportunity than skills because Povich had an awful nine percent strikeout-minus-walk rate and a mediocre 10.3 percent swinging-strike rate in his debut season of 79 innings.
Povich has four pitches with a double-digit swinging-strike rate, with the slider (13.3 percent), cutter (15.4 percent), and changeup (12.6 percent) leading the arsenal. That's below-average swinging-strike rates for the slider and changeup, though the cutter was his least-used pitch (7.5 percent).
Povich's pitches won't overwhelm hitters, but the four-seamer has slightly above-average levels of induced vertical break (16.7 percent). Meanwhile, the curveball and cutter drop over two inches more than the average pitch.
The concerns for Povich involve whether he can have a reliable pitch or two against right-handed hitters. Povich's sweeper elicits the most whiffs and best results (.126 wOBA, .110 xwOBA) against righties. However, only Povich's four-seamer (.307 wOBA, .291 xwOBA) against righties hasn't been destroyed, which he used the most (44.4 percent).
We have similar concerns against lefties, with Povich's sinker (.202 wOBA, .234 xwOBA) and cutter (.077 wOBA, .184 xwOBA) being his best offerings. Meanwhile, Povich's four-seamer (.350 wOBA, .432 xwOBA) and sweeper (.384 wOBA, .296 xwOBA) were crushed by left-handed hitters.
Think of other starting pitchers with deep arsenals that fantasy managers target like Merrill Kelly, Michael Wacha, and Tobias Myers. Povich fits that mold on a quality team with opportunities to eat innings and break out in 2025. Take a chance on Povich because it's a low-risk starting pitcher selection.
Honorable Mentions
Gavin Williams, SP, Cleveland Guardians
NFBC ADP: 177.3 (Since March 1)
Williams was initially on the outline but an elbow injury caused him to miss the beginning of the 2024 season. He had a setback in late April 2024 and missed two more months.
Though there's a price difference, it's similar to how we feel about Cole. The skills for Williams weren't mind-blowing or high-end either, evidenced by a 14 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate and 11.1 percent swinging-strike rate in 2024.
Williams' cutter led the arsenal with a 15.9 percent swinging-strike rate in 2024. Meanwhile, the curveball was the second-best offering for whiffs via a below-average 11.4 percent swinging-strike rate.
The curveball (.275 wOBA, .285 xwOBA) and slider (.215 wOBA, .242 xwOBA) have been effective versus right-handed hitters. Don't sleep on the cutter, allowing a .232 wOBA (.303 xwOBA) against righties.
Besides the curveball (.214 wOBA, .201 xwOBA) against lefties, his four-seamer seems to be his second-best offering. That's evident in Williams' four-seamer allowing a .276 wOBA (.315 xwOBA) in 2024. Be cautious about his elbow injury potentially lingering into 2025.
Casey Mize, SP, Detroit Tigers
NFBC ADP: 304.5 (Since March 1)
Mize has been fighting his way back from Tommy John surgery in 2024, with a hamstring issue causing him to miss nearly two months. Remember when we debated Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning, and Mize as three top starting pitcher prospects?
Mize's underlying metrics don't give us confidence, with a 10 percent strikeout-minus-walk rate and a 10.2 percent swinging-strike rate in 2024. If we believe in spring training data, Mize rocks a 17.3 percent swinging-strike rate through a tiny sample of 11 1/3 innings.
It could be a noisy small sample, but Mize has raised his vertical release point by around 2.5 inches in spring training compared to 2024. That led to Mize's four-seamer having near-elite levels of induced vertical break (17.9 inches) in spring training compared to 2024 (16.3 inches). Furthermore, Mize's splitter generated two or more inches of horizontal arm-side fade and vertical drop in the small spring training sample versus 2024.
Our past biases and experiences impact our views of Mize heading into 2025, and he might go overlooked later in drafts. Make sure Mize is someone to highlight or queue up in deep-league drafts as a breakout starting pitcher candidate.
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